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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #40,601
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:38am Jun 29, 2012 5:38am
Quoting PurePrice
Ny is pushing the EU higher to previous spike high of 1.2620 ... Is it going to go thru 12620 soon ?? What do you think ?
Going to 2660 monthly pivoty looks like
  • #40,602
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:40am Jun 29, 2012 5:40am
Quoting PurePrice
hmmm, it is gonna hit 1.2740 today ?
I think it might hit 2720 at the most i believe or just 2700
  • #40,603
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:42am Jun 29, 2012 5:42am
This is slicing every level up...the sky is the limit on this one.
  • #40,604
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:42am Jun 29, 2012 5:42am
I have a 2nd TP at 1.2740, 3rd tp at 1.317x.

forexBOOM
  • #40,605
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:43am Jun 29, 2012 5:43am
When you have a Trade Plan it can change in seconds and you should do it. I only share so traders can get a sense of strategy and how I develop a trade plan.

Right now we have the NARE in effect. That means the US Retail Traders see GREEN ahead as Risk is On !!!

Dow Futures are up 163

Oil is up. Gold is up.

Wow the world is saved. Thanks to Frau Merkel and the Supreme Court in the USA.

All problems have gone away.

My Trade Plan is where do I SHORT the SUCKER ?

The high in EUR/USD is 1.2652 and US Bonds are at .32% and 1.66% at the moment.

Europe leaves to celebrate at 11:30 AM and then we arrive at Sunday Canada Day, July 1, 2012.

If the Dow goes up 200 and Gold goes up 50 as it is nearly up now in the Futures the QUESTION is why ?

The Answer is STUPIDITY.

All Risk On Assets are UP and the SUN shines until REALITY BITES.

I will short when I see us go from Risk On to Risk off even if it is only a change in direction.

Also keep in mind this is a Friday and there is NO GOOD NEWS left for Monday so it is a question of when to short EUR/USD.

I am NOT a long position holder as I get in and out usually the same day.

If I see a change today in direction I might do some quick trades today.

However the KEY is Patience and Discipline.

Do not Trade just to trade.

Good Trading and the BEST to all here.

Happy Birthday Canada
  • #40,606
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:45am Jun 29, 2012 5:45am
Say squeeze. Squeeeeze. Bam. I hope you are all ok guys, I am still staying out of this mess.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,607
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:45am Jun 29, 2012 5:45am
Next Resistance 1.2687-95
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #40,608
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:46am Jun 29, 2012 5:46am
Quoting ferndog
I think it might hit 2720 at the most i believe or just 2700
This is a good old fashioned short squeeze. Add on top of that the fact that it is Friday, Month end and quarter end and you've got yourself a hopiumized, window dressing bull market.

As for where this could go, I wouldn't rule out 1.2810
The last batch of short squeezes were approx 400 to 600 pips. 1.2810 would be 400 pips.

I'm just watching with my bucket of popcorn until this sucker runs out of mojo, then I shall consider adding a fresh short position.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,609
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:48am Jun 29, 2012 5:48am

Farcial

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/publ...ela-merkel.jpg



Farcical – pertaining to or the nature of farce; absurd; ludicrous. Well, now I know how to describe what happened on Globex last night: farcical!

The mini-S&P (ES) rallied in a MAJOR way last night – spiking to at least 1342.25 (I am actually writing this now, but you will be reading it in the morning). The ES exploded 26.00 points from the low because of…wait for it…rumors of potential deals from the latest so-called “summit” in Europe.

Just one hour after the meat of the rally took hold, the Italians have already said the so-called agreement is a non-starter. They will not play ball. Farcical, indeed!

As I traded the ES first long, then short, I read the following headlines from Bloomberg…

EURO LEADERS RENOUNCE SENIORITY ON SPAIN LOANS

EURO LEADERS AGREE TO OPEN FUNDS WITHOUT AUSTERITY PROGRAMS

BANKS CAN BE RECAPPED DIRECTLY WITH AID FUNDS, VAN ROMPUY SAYS

Then…


  1. MERKEL SAYS EU LEADERS TO CONTINUE WORK ON LONG-TERM MEASURES
  2. JUNCKER SAYS WOULD HAVE `HOPED FOR MORE' FROM EU SUMMIT
  3. EU BANK SUPERVISION IS CONDITION FOR ESM LOANS TO BANKS: RUTTE


Frau Merkel says “EU leaders will continue to work on long-term measures” but that won’t fly. Re-read the prior bolded headline, which says it all: money for nothing and chicks for free. (Dire Straits – Money for Nothing)

Although this nonsense has been regurgitated over and over and over again, it makes no difference: the headline-seeking algorithms controlled by the self-aware SkyNet supercomputer will buy it every time.

Along with the regurgitation of the “we’re saved again” bull$#it is the ever-present “no we’re not” – also known as reality. When the ES reached the aforementioned 1342.25 level, Mario Monti made a few headlines himself.


  1. MONTI SAYS EURO LEADERS HAVE NO PLAN FOR BOOSTING BAILOUT FUNDS
  2. ITALY HAS NO INTENTION TO `APPLY FOR THIS,' MONTI SAYS
  3. IRELAND'S KENNY SAYS WHAT WAS IMPOSSIBLE IS NOW POSSIBLE


Apparently Ireland’s Mr. Kenny is happy about the initial headline that read there is free money coming with no austerity. Yeah, that’s gonna work out fine.

Isn’t it interesting how this is happening right before the end of the quarter? Nothing’s actually rigged – right? Well, US interest rates are “set” (read: rigged) by the Federal Reserve. And LIBOR is illegally rigged. Certain health care stocks exploded 1 minute BEFORE the Supreme Court ruled in favor of those exact stocks. That was clearly leaked, which means it was clearly rigged. But not this – right? Just another coincidence I’m sure.



Thanks To Larry Levin - The Trading Edge

  • #40,610
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:50am Jun 29, 2012 5:50am
He he,
I have the same Dilemna, where to short? I'll leave it for next week

Quoting CurrencyMan
When you have a Trade Plan it can change in seconds and you should do it. I only share so traders can get a sense of strategy and how I develop a trade plan.

Right now we have the NARE in effect. That means the US Retail Traders see GREEN ahead as Risk is On !!!

Dow Futures are up 163

Oil is up. Gold is up.

Wow the world is saved. Thanks to Frau Merkel and the Supreme Court in the USA.

All problems have gone away.

My Trade Plan is where do I SHORT the SUCKER ?

The high in EUR/USD is 1.2652 and US Bonds are at .32% and 1.66% at the...
  • #40,611
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:52am Jun 29, 2012 5:52am
Quoting CurrencyMan

Farcial



[color=#222222]Farcical – pertaining to or the nature of farce; absurd; ludicrous. Well, now I know how to describe what happened on Globex last night: farcical!

[b][color=#222222]The mini-S&P (ES) rallied in a MAJOR way last night – spiking to at least 1342.25 (I am actually writing this now, but you will be reading it in the morning). The ES exploded 26.00 points from the low because of…wait for it…rumors of potential deals from the latest so-called “summit” in...
Great article. That pretty much sums it all up. We are all little fish in a tank full of sharks.
  • #40,612
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:53am Jun 29, 2012 5:53am
Btw, good old numbers right now. 11/2008 monthly close + 02/2009 monthly close formed zone - 1,2666 - 1,268. Ofc no guarantee the zone will matter in this enviroment, but we may stop here for a while.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40,613
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:55am Jun 29, 2012 5:55am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Great article. That pretty much sums it all up. We are all little fish in a tank full of sharks.
Thankfully the folks in this forum have figured out that the sharks not only feed on us little fish but also each other. They think we don't know!
  • #40,614
  • Jun 29, 2012 5:58am Jun 29, 2012 5:58am
finaly, EU close the GAP. nice one.
  • #40,615
  • Jun 29, 2012 6:16am Jun 29, 2012 6:16am
hate to say this but I don'tthink it's over yet. From a technical perspective, last night's move was 185 pip, then we settled for 8 hours (or so) and another blast up.

If you look at the hourly chart, this paints a nice (for longs) Bull Flag. The calculated extension is the pole length so we could see highs of around 1.2750 today. Price just hit 55 EMA on daily and has slowed down.

At this point I'm kind of saying; "Nien, nien! Enough is enough!"

But the smell of hopium is in the air and it's contageous.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #40,616
  • Jun 29, 2012 6:19am Jun 29, 2012 6:19am
Quoting Cgb

At this point I'm kind of saying; "Nien, nien! Enough is enough!"

But the smell of hopium is in the air and it's contageous.
From the movie Inglorius bastard!

Inserted Video
  • #40,617
  • Jun 29, 2012 6:21am Jun 29, 2012 6:21am
Quoting Cgb
hate to say this but I don'tthink it's over yet. From a technical perspective, last night's move was 185 pip, then we settled for 8 hours (or so) and another blast up.

If you look at the hourly chart, this paints a nice (for longs) Bull Flag. The calculated extension is the pole length so we could see highs of around 1.2750 today. Price just hit 55 EMA on daily and has slowed down.

At this point I'm kind of saying; "Nien, nien! Enough is enough!"

But the smell of hopium is in the air and it's contageous.
Easy cowboy. If you wanted to be long this market, the time to do it was 300 pips ago
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #40,618
  • Jun 29, 2012 6:23am Jun 29, 2012 6:23am
Just one thing

Why you traders here, are waiting when this move will end, and don't buy simply the dips? It's easier.

My personal opinion.

forexBOOM
  • #40,619
  • Jun 29, 2012 6:24am Jun 29, 2012 6:24am
Woke up today with green pips they have all vanished and got stopped out at Break Even. Oh well didnt lose anything but didnt gain either

Thats me done for the week, damn i wish i was long from 1.2440 LOL....

Have a lovely weekend everyone and see you all on Monday!
Cheers!!
  • #40,620
  • Jun 29, 2012 6:25am Jun 29, 2012 6:25am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
From the movie Inglorius bastard!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UU_GhqVgc9M


Have you ever seen the comedy one about him wanting to buy a Harley and can't get it? I'll try to find it on YouTube for you.
I observe your reality but live my own.
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