EurAnalysis

Still EU ranging from 1.2600 - 1.2574

Merkel says ESM recapitalization still needs to be approved by unanimous vote of all 27 states.

Scaling in another buy limit U/CAD @ 1.02 which is the 38.2% fib of May L to H.



Edit:Scratch that. I forgot Canadian GDP is coming out. Will buy on dip though. Watch 38.2 fib level.

Don't understimate the power of the emerging BAT at 1D.

forexBOOM

ADD: TP 1.317x

it was under our nose this whole time.
at 4 H chart if u use the stochastic u can see a regular divergence with lower lows and the osc is signaling Higher lows.
Bullish from hell indicator

Many times, in fact at all press conferences, German officials are saying they want to save Europe at all costs. This makes them hypocrites since they only lie, lie and lie. In fact, the only thing Germans are trying to do is to break Europe apart so they can rule the ruins.

1) Eurobonds. They didnt even need to ratify those bonds at start of the crisis. Imo it would be soon enough to ratify it last summer. If these were applied at the beginning none of this would have happened. They should have done this before Greeces yields spiked above 7%. Who refused to give EU cure? Germans.

2) Tax of financial services. This is obviously tax which is supposed to be imlemented on the financial powerhouse of Europe - Great Britain. Germans, you fcking hypocrite !diots. Europe is in liquidity squeeze. You are bailing out banks with taxpayers money because they dont have enough capital and you are going to slow down money flow in these banks? Wtf do you think that will happen? I know. Banking system will crumble and Deutsche bank will take part of derivatives market. FO bastards!

3) Launch the press. Since the age when we abandoned merkantilism and started to focus on export inflation is unseparable part of economic output. Modest enhancement of money supply, which would send Eur/USD closer to parity would enhance EU export, produce GDP and then we could pay for the debts. Ah, sry, we cant make this either, coz we are scared of "Weimar". FO, you aint scared from Weimar, you want to break Europe apart. Anyway, you fkin hypocrites are using swap lines to gain freshly printed USD, transfer em to EUR and fill liquidity to the market. Thats hypocritic as well. Why dont you admit you need to enhance monetary base and start pritnting. Ah, I know that would hurt German export to PIIGS. We dont need you to export to PIIGS countries. We need Europe to export to whole world.

Seriously, Germans, go fuck yourselves.

T

Closed 40% of 2580 short just to have more room to scale if it decides to go till 2660 today or 2750-80 area earlier next week.

have a limit order UC at 1.0205.

Short, Huston we have a problem, Frau Merkel....

July 1, 2012 is CANADA DAY

1867

2012

Happy Birthday Canada

Now to Forex related matters. July 1, 2012 is also the day that the Oil Embargo goes into effect against Iran and the Mullahas and PM have said they will BLOCK the Straits of Hormuz so WATCH OUT in case they do as Oil and Gold will move up.

Just be aware...

http://www.newsday.com/q-a-new-sanct...-oil-1.3812970

Snippet:

NEW YORK - (AP) -- The U.S. and Europe want to deprive Iran of the oil income it needs to run its government and, most importantly, fund what they believe is an effort to build a nuclear weapon. Their efforts are entering a new phase this week.
The U.S. as of Thursday will penalize banks that do oil deals with Iran, while European nations will embargo imports of Iranian oil starting Sunday.

These measures were announced in December and January, but lawmakers gave countries and the oil markets until this week to adjust.
Iran initially responded by threatening to block key oil routes. Oil soared over $100 per barrel as traders imagined an oil market straining to meet growing demand from China while only getting a trickle of oil from the world's third largest exporter.

Iran hasn't capitulated on its nuclear ambitions but it has taken part in negotiations. World economic growth has slowed, reducing demand for oil to make fuels for transportation. Saudi Arabia and other nations boosted crude production in anticipation of lost Iranian supplies, contributing to a 25 percent plunge in oil prices since May 1. And oil buyers have had months to secure oil from other sources.
"Customers have gotten themselves in a good position to handle it," said ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson Wednesday.

Still, there is the possibility of at least temporary supply disruptions when the European embargo takes effect July 1. "What happens day of is hard to predict," Tillerson said.

But Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, thinks it will be a "non-event." Countries that plan to honor the embargo "have already done so," he says.

Indeed, U.S. officials say Iran's oil exports and revenue are already down sharply. Iran generated $100 billion in revenue from oil last year, up from $20 billion a decade ago, according to IHS CERA, an energy consulting firm.

Iran has warned that the embargo could boost the price of oil. But the market is so flush with oil at the moment that even the loss of more Iranian crude may not lead to short supplies and higher prices. In fact, if Iran figures out a way to get around the sanctions and get more of its oil to market -- a real possibility -- oil prices could fall further.

Here are key questions and answers about the West's new sanctions and what they could mean for energy markets:

Q: What are the sanctions and when do they go into effect?
A: The U.S., which does not purchase Iranian oil, announced sanctions in December that would prohibit the world's banks from completing oil transactions with Iranian banks. That would make it more difficult for Iran to sell its crude on the open market. The oil in a single tanker can be worth $100 million. The U.S. sanctions took effect Thursday.
Europe announced in January it would prohibit imports of Iranian crude by July 1. It had been satisfying about 3 percent of its demand with oil from Iran. Europe also is prohibiting firms from insuring shipments of Iranian oil.

Q: What has been Iran's role in the world oil market?
A: In recent years, Iran has exported 2.5 million barrels of oil per day, about 3 percent of world supplies. About 500,000 barrels have gone to Europe and most of the rest to China, India, Japan and South Korea.
Iranian fields produce a type of oil known as heavy, sour crude. This is a common type of crude that contains more sulfur than so-called light, sweet crude. Heavy crudes are harder and more expensive to refine into valuable fuels such as gasoline and therefore generally command a lower price.

Q: What have been the effects of the sanctions so far?
A: U.S. officials say Iran's oil exports have declined to less than 1.8 million barrels per day, a drop of 700,000 barrels per day. At today's oil prices, the reduction is costing Iran $63 million per day. Even importers who want to buy Iranian oil have found it difficult because they haven't been able to buy insurance for oil shipments. Iran has kept up its oil production even as sales have dropped, leading to soaring levels of oil in storage.

Q: Can countries buy Iranian oil and still avoid the sanctions?
A: Yes. The State Department has announced that China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Taiwan have received waivers from the U.S. in exchange for "significantly reducing" oil imports. They will be able to continue to import some Iranian oil. Ten European countries have also received waivers, but they will not be allowed to import Iranian oil beginning July 1 anyway.

Also, countries could trade with Iran outside of the traditional banking system. Iran could accept hard assets such as gold for its oil, though that would be inefficient and risky.

Q: Will the sanctions work?
A: They have already significantly reduced Iran's oil sales. At the same time, the drop in global oil prices has reduced Iran's income from the oil it is still selling. This combination of lower sales and lower prices is stretching Iran's finances. Iran has re-engaged in nuclear talks with the West, but they have not been successful. In fact, Iran has insisted that the U.S. and Europe ease the sanctions before it will make any concessions with its nuclear program.

Jonathan Fahey can be reached at http://twitter.com/JonathanFahey .

Tom take it easy

Ny is pushing the EU higher to previous spike high of 1.2620 ... Is it going to go thru 12620 soon ?? What do you think ?

Happy Birthday Canada .. O' Canada My Home and Native Land ... (yes yes, I am a Canuck)

very difficult to hear what ur saying becos of ur emotions.a request tom,can u be bit less emotional,sorry tom i dont mean to be rude.

Shorts holder, please pay attention.

ADD: Intraday TP 1.2740, is 100% AB=CD

forexBOOM

wish I had closed full lot lets see how 2660 reacts

Well, that didn't take very long ... it sliced thru it like a hot knife thru butter

Watch for E/U monthly pivot @ 1.2660 area. If it breaks, next resistance is 38.2 fib line @ 1.2745..

Well I wasn't brave enough to enter the double bottom and perhaps in hindsight I should have - but the eu summit was 50/50 anyways. Looks like the dose of hope is a strong one.

On the bigger picture - could this be a signal towards a more bullish monthly outlook? What sort of levels do we require before that becomes the case?

Sry, I just got a bit mad when I have heard about that financial tax again.

My point is:
Germans are trying to look like they are the saviours of Europe. Like they do most GDP, they put most money in EFSF and so on. On all press conferences, they try to look like good leaders, whose only intention is to save Europe.

But in fact, they have blocked everything that could help to solve European problems and moreover, they are suggesting steps which would send Europe even deeper into recession (financial tax).

I simply cant stand and watch such a hypocriticism.

T

hmmm, it is gonna hit 1.2740 today ?