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EUR/CHF

  • #8,261
  • Jun 26, 2012 9:01pm Jun 26, 2012 9:01pm
Quoting Svizzera
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...-be-legal.html

Jordan is quoted back in August, before the peg introcuction, saying that it is just a temporary measure. I don't think he'd even dream of saying the word 'temporary' now though! The language has to be as tough as possible of course, but it does make me think.
Central bankers change their words and policies all the time, you watch how Jordan will change again in the next few months.
  • #8,262
  • Jun 26, 2012 9:10pm Jun 26, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting tim10167
Central bankers change their words and policies all the time, you watch how Jordan will change again in the next few months.
will it can be 1.40? when?
  • #8,263
  • Jun 26, 2012 9:43pm Jun 26, 2012 9:43pm
"Swiss 5yr gov't yield is back above zero. The 2-4 end of the yield curve is still negative"

Tension off a bit on the floor, but expect to come back after EU summit
  • #8,264
  • Jun 26, 2012 9:47pm Jun 26, 2012 9:47pm
Quoting dreambetrue
will it can be 1.40? when?
1.40 unlikely in the next 12 months. "When?"-->You have to ask Merkel and Monti, politics are driving the situation, therefore hard to forcast the timming, Merkel and the other big three are in bloody dog fight now, but the trend lead to a "lose-lose" (break up) situation in the end is already set by the German voters. And by this fall when Germany's economy gets dragged down further, its voter will be even more unwelling to help the others. This is why I think pressure on the floor will be even greater in the second half of this year which will make Jordan to rethink again.
  • #8,265
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:10pm Jun 26, 2012 10:10pm
Quoting tim10167
"Peg-break...we are miles away from"--->I think it is hard to say as politics decide everything now, not economic datas and trends where we can predict and forsee.

In my own opinion, I agree to what George Soros' opinion--->, Join liability to keep yields low and governance the implementation of fiscal discipline for those needing help (exclude Greece). Overall, this is the cheapest solution for Germany, it looks like Germany has to give in the begining, but because this way can provide low yield for the troubled countries, this will enable...
And the Germans know this way will cost them less, but they want to do it in a 10 years time frame, and this is a joke. The EURO would have already disappeared by then. All the German politicians are tide up by its voters. Mass people are normally dumb.


Monti, take the Italian people and leave the EURO, bear short term pains, because you will grow strong again after a few years!!!...be careful of that playboy Berlusconi.
  • #8,266
  • Jun 27, 2012 4:47am Jun 27, 2012 4:47am
Looks like ECB will cut rate in July.....
  • #8,267
  • Jun 27, 2012 5:01am Jun 27, 2012 5:01am
Yep it looks that way depending what happens at this summit.
That will put even more pressure on this pair you would think.
  • #8,268
  • Jun 27, 2012 7:52am Jun 27, 2012 7:52am
"5%" of the Currensee community volume is trading the EURCHF

---Thats a decent drop from 7~8% few weeks ago, expect it to go lower in the near future. Real money will become more and more dominant in this pair
  • #8,269
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:05am Jun 27, 2012 10:05am
Any reason for the big move today?
  • #8,270
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:18am Jun 27, 2012 10:18am
They try with big volume to break above 1,2010 but failed, too much selling pressure above.
  • #8,271
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:19am Jun 27, 2012 10:19am
Quoting Napoleon180
They try with big volume to break above 1,2010 but failed, too much selling pressure above.
Yes i could see there was big volume,could it be the SNB changing tactics?
  • #8,272
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:25am Jun 27, 2012 10:25am
Quoting brinks
Yes i could see there was big volume,could it be the SNB changing tactics?
I don't think so. Just somebody selling 1,2010 for the last days/weeks, is resistance.
  • #8,273
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:36am Jun 27, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Napoleon180
I don't think so. Just somebody selling 1,2010 for the last days/weeks, is resistance.
I thought maybe SNB trying to break 1.20100 slowly to get a little rally going
  • #8,274
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:53am Jun 27, 2012 10:53am
Quoting brinks
I thought maybe SNB trying to break 1.20100 slowly to get a little rally going
This is not a cap, but an unilateral peg. SNB is selling francs at 1,2007-10 and buying above 1,2011. It will continue in this way because still is dangerous for exports and for the inflation. But no doubt SNB will give up the peg in some moment because SNB's sole responsibility is price stability. The question is when SNB will give up, for negative SWAPS. But of course it will surprise everybody. 3 months ago the 0 risk trade was being long. Now it's being short
  • #8,275
  • Jun 27, 2012 2:59pm Jun 27, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting qatar
This is not a cap, but an unilateral peg. SNB is selling francs at 1,2007-10 and buying above 1,2011. It will continue in this way because still is dangerous for exports and for the inflation. But no doubt SNB will give up the peg in some moment because SNB's sole responsibility is price stability. The question is when SNB will give up, for negative SWAPS. But of course it will surprise everybody. 3 months ago the 0 risk trade was being long. Now it's being short
Dont think so, we'll see a spike soon to kill put option sellers and other bears like each month
  • #8,276
  • Jun 27, 2012 5:14pm Jun 27, 2012 5:14pm
Danthine is going to speak tomorrow and I have no idea why they bother themselves and us speaking the same word " utmost hell stuff".
  • #8,277
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:00pm Jun 27, 2012 11:00pm
The more I consider SNB plans the more I FIGURE OUT its counter-industry act.
1- implementation of full Bessel 3, is asked firmly from July 1st in Swiss banking system which will decrease the GDP for at least 0.5 percent.
2- EU problems are getting worse which will enforce a weight on exporting systems in Swiss.
3- unemployment rate has increased according to last year data before introducing the peg 1.2 for 0.2 percent.
4- deflation is at a high risk and more than the year 2011.
And after all this, the SNB seems quite happy with the floor, while moving the peg last year for 1000 pips added about 70b to foreign currency reserves while the data out of the SNB is printing this much every week and it doesn't seem to be for keeping the floor which could be justified in buying North EU bonds and commodities.
As I said before the SNB has forgot its main role as stemming the economy growth and tries to be appreciated by politics, this can be justified in weak Jordan personality specially when he comes after a strong, risk taking, and creative one.
My message to the SNB is " wait and see the collapse."
and to people of Swiss, " I feel deeply saddened for you".
  • #8,278
  • Edited 12:48am Jun 28, 2012 12:34am | Edited 12:48am
Quoting holmes
Danthine is going to speak tomorrow and I have no idea why they bother themselves and us speaking the same word " utmost hell stuff".
Haha you knew that he wasn't going to say anything out of the ordinary!

SNB’S Danthine: Swiss had rough road since onset of crisis

Written by Gerry Davies
June 28, 2012 at 05:12 GMT

  1. Franc gains weren’t manageable for Swiss economy
  2. Franc appreciation has been ‘significant’
  3. Franc cap is necessity for Swiss economy

As you were. Sounds like the Swiss authorities are content to support the EUR/CHF 1.2000 peg for the foreseeable future. The cross trades at a steady 1.2010.

  • #8,279
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:23am Jun 28, 2012 1:23am
Quoting brinks
Haha you knew that he wasn't going to say anything out of the ordinary!

SNB’S Danthine: Swiss had rough road since onset of crisis

Written by Gerry Davies
June 28, 2012 at 05:12 GMT
[list][*]Franc gains weren’t manageable for Swiss economy[*]Franc appreciation has been ‘significant’[*]Franc...
They're not unpredictable.
  • #8,280
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:27am Jun 28, 2012 1:27am
Quoting holmes
They're not unpredictable.
Nope i think we can say they are very safe and predictable
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