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EUR/CHF

  • #8,241
  • Jun 25, 2012 3:19pm Jun 25, 2012 3:19pm
You forget this Newton's law

F = m * a

F = buying/selling force
m = CHF total amount
a = EURCHF acceleration

Being that m is growing, EURCHF acceleration toward zero
  • #8,242
  • Jun 26, 2012 12:51am Jun 26, 2012 12:51am
brinks, are you holding your long position longer terms?
  • #8,243
  • Jun 26, 2012 12:55am Jun 26, 2012 12:55am
Quoting tim10167
brinks, are you holding your long position longer terms?
Hi Tim,

Yes I think so.

as you know I cut half my positions after the monetary meeting,i'm getting a small positive swap on one of my accounts so will just leave them off on holiday next week so Won't need to think about the boring 4 pip range this pair is stuck in !
  • #8,244
  • Jun 26, 2012 1:15am Jun 26, 2012 1:15am
Quoting brinks
Hi Tim,

Yes I think so.

as you know I cut half my positions after the monetary meeting,i'm getting a small positive swap on one of my accounts so will just leave them off on holiday next week so Won't need to think about the boring 4 pip range this pair is stuck in !
Yah, me too, I am leaving a few long positions in this paire and try to forget about it. Because I know I will regret if anything happens. Everything so far points out further pressure on the floor in the second half of this year. Just look at how strong Merkel and Bundesbank was in the upcomming EU summit these few days, and they have the full support of German voters. And the "main" things is: "No one believes SNB can print unlimited CHF except SNB themself", I am sure there will be a limit, we just have to wait.
  • #8,245
  • Jun 26, 2012 1:22am Jun 26, 2012 1:22am
Quoting tim10167
Yah, me too, I am leaving a few long positions in this paire and try to forget about it. Because I know I will regret if anything happens. Everything so far points out further pressure on the floor in the second half of this year. Just look at how strong Merkel and Bundesbank was in the upcomming EU summit these few days, and they have the full support of German voters. And the "main" things is: "No one believes SNB can print unlimited CHF except SNB themself", I am sure there will be a limit, we just have to wait.
UBS consumption came in quite weak i think
  • #8,246
  • Jun 26, 2012 1:52am Jun 26, 2012 1:52am
Quoting brinks
UBS consumption came in quite weak i think
yes, weak, the long term average has been approximately 1.5
  • #8,247
  • Jun 26, 2012 2:05am Jun 26, 2012 2:05am
"Berlusconi' wants to make a come-back, possibly favouring a EUR exit for Italy."
If it happens in Italy's next year election, peg will break
  • #8,248
  • Jun 26, 2012 2:24am Jun 26, 2012 2:24am
Quoting tim10167
"Berlusconi' wants to make a come-back, possibly favouring a EUR exit for Italy."
If it happens in Italy's next year election, peg will break
don't think the italians are stupid enough to give him a second chance...
  • #8,249
  • Jun 26, 2012 4:15am Jun 26, 2012 4:15am
Quoting brinks
Hi Tim,

Yes I think so.

as you know I cut half my positions after the monetary meeting,i'm getting a small positive swap on one of my accounts so will just leave them off on holiday next week so Won't need to think about the boring 4 pip range this pair is stuck in !
Quoting tim10167
Yah, me too, I am leaving a few long positions in this paire and try to forget about it. Because I know I will regret if anything happens. Everything so far points out further pressure on the floor in the second half of this year. Just look at how strong Merkel and Bundesbank was in the upcomming EU summit these few days, and they have the full support of German voters. And the "main" things is: "No one believes SNB can print unlimited CHF except SNB themself", I am sure there will be a limit, we just have to wait.
I like these posts.
  • #8,250
  • Jun 26, 2012 6:46am Jun 26, 2012 6:46am
I also have longed 2 lots for this pair. Will be holding it till end of this year.
  • #8,251
  • Jun 26, 2012 7:18am Jun 26, 2012 7:18am
Quoting FxNavigate
I also have longed 2 lots for this pair. Will be holding it till end of this year.
what's the target?
  • #8,252
  • Jun 26, 2012 7:23am Jun 26, 2012 7:23am
i hope it will be 1.3 !!!
  • #8,253
  • Jun 26, 2012 7:23am Jun 26, 2012 7:23am
1.25 in the summer !!!
  • #8,254
  • Jun 26, 2012 10:56am Jun 26, 2012 10:56am
Italian PM Monti considering resignation if Germany does not agree to Euro-bonds - sources

We have to watch out for this as this will mean EURO breakup--> peg breaks
  • #8,255
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:11am Jun 26, 2012 11:11am
Situation getting more and more complex in EU, looks like Monti, Hollande, Rajoy is determined to push Merkel to accept EUROBOND in the second half of this year or they will choose to leave EU as this kind of yields will lead their country to disaster, they have to make a choice no later than this year the latest. But Merkel just said:Europe will not have shared TOTAL liability as long as she lives.

We have to be very very careful with our positions and judgements in the next few months
  • #8,256
  • Edited 11:31am Jun 26, 2012 11:21am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting tim10167
Italian PM Monti considering resignation if Germany does not agree to Euro-bonds - sources

We have to watch out for this as this will mean EURO breakup--> peg breaks
Euro bonds are the wrong way for europe, i guess Germany will not agree to that for the next months or years. Dept crisis can't get solved with those bonds, it's just once more that germany and other strong countrys pay for italy, greece etc. and those countrys are not forced to change their politics anymore.

Italy has nothing to lose anymore , so they talk more agressive now, but it will change nothing at all.

peg-break ...we are miles away from.
  • #8,257
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:36am Jun 26, 2012 11:36am
Monti denies resignation threat

Written by Jamie Coleman
June 26, 2012 at 16:25 GMT

Apparently there was a story earlier today in Il Giornale that Monti had threatened to resign if Merkel did not approve euro bonds.
Now that Angie has called his bluff, Monti’s office is denying the threat…

so he probably did say it
  • #8,258
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:44am Jun 26, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Napoleon180
Euro bonds are the wrong way for europe, i guess Germany will not agree to that for the next months or years. Dept crisis can't get solved with those bonds, it's just once more that germany and other strong countrys pay for italy, greece etc. and those countrys are not foreced to change their politics anymore.

Italy has nothing to lose anymore , so they talk more agressive now, but it will change nothing at all.

peg-break ...we are miles away from.
"Peg-break...we are miles away from"--->I think it is hard to say as politics decide everything now, not economic datas and trends where we can predict and forsee.

In my own opinion, I agree to what George Soros' opinion--->, Join liability to keep yields low and governance the implementation of fiscal discipline for those needing help (exclude Greece). Overall, this is the cheapest solution for Germany, it looks like Germany has to give in the begining, but because this way can provide low yield for the troubled countries, this will enable the troubled countries to get it over after a few years time with their reforms, and able to repay Germany back at the end (after 5~10 years), Germany's lost will be minimal.

But at the moment Merkel only cares about next year's vote.
  • #8,259
  • Jun 26, 2012 11:52am Jun 26, 2012 11:52am
55% of Germans want their old currency back, and the voters control all the party leaders. Iam more and more certain Germany wont give in. Therefor EURO break up imminent, just matter of when.
  • #8,260
  • Jun 26, 2012 3:22pm Jun 26, 2012 3:22pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...-be-legal.html

Jordan is quoted back in August, before the peg introcuction, saying that it is just a temporary measure. I don't think he'd even dream of saying the word 'temporary' now though! The language has to be as tough as possible of course, but it does make me think.
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