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EUR/CHF

  • #8,201
  • Jun 22, 2012 2:51am Jun 22, 2012 2:51am
SNB Quarterly report

Written by Pete Jackson
June 22, 2012 at 07:36 GMT

  1. Will defend Franc cap with “upmost deterrmination”
  2. Ready to buy currency at unlimited quantities
  3. Franc remains “high” at current levels
  4. Won’t tolerate further franc appreciation
  5. Uncertainty about future developments has increased
  6. Companies employemnt, investment plans remain cautious

All rather similar to comments made last Thursday ….

  • #8,202
  • Jun 22, 2012 4:18am Jun 22, 2012 4:18am
Quoting alexcee
Any move up on this pair could be the birth of an uptrend. I think there is less pressure on it now too.
Alexcee, you said before you want to hold your position till christmas at least if nothing happens beforehand, can you please share with us why you choose this kind of timefram? thanks
  • #8,203
  • Jun 22, 2012 4:24am Jun 22, 2012 4:24am
Quoting brinks
I wouldnt call this thread alive either
Maybe after a month or two if SNB still doesnt do anything, this thread will be taking over by traders with short positions......
  • #8,204
  • Jun 22, 2012 4:42am Jun 22, 2012 4:42am
Quoting tim10167
Alexcee, you said before you want to hold your position till christmas at least if nothing happens beforehand, can you please share with us why you choose this kind of timefram? thanks
Just to express my patience. Out of two things, one must happen. Either it hits 1.2500 first or it breaks the peg first. And I will hold until either happens. Pray the former happens.
  • #8,205
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:01am Jun 22, 2012 5:01am
SNB’s Danthine: Franc cap is ‘extraordinary’ measure

Written by Gerry Davies
June 22, 2012 at 09:23 GMT


  1. Franc ceiling is ‘absolutely necessary’
  2. Capital controls would be used in ‘extreme situation’
  3. Cap could be maintained for ‘rather long-time’
  4. Exit talk is ‘totally premature’

Comments made in interview with Swiss newspaper Le Temps and reported by Bloomberg.

Nothing is going to happen with this pair for a very long time as he seems to be saying we wont use capital controls.
If the amount they have been spending isnt considered extreme.

  • #8,206
  • Jun 22, 2012 7:01am Jun 22, 2012 7:01am
Quoting brinks
SNB’s Danthine: Franc cap is ‘extraordinary’ measure

Written by Gerry Davies
June 22, 2012 at 09:23 GMT




  1. Franc ceiling is ‘absolutely necessary’
  2. Capital controls would be used in ‘extreme situation’
  3. Cap could be maintained for ‘rather long-time’
  4. Exit talk is ‘totally premature’

Comments...

With what Danthine said today and the market performance for the past two months, I think I can conclude a few things (please do correct me with other opinions):

1. SNB purposely controled the value of the floor at a tight range around
1.2010. Buying Euros around the floor (with the strongest CHF) is obvious
cheaptest for SNB, it gives SNB more flexibility in the future. Everytime
when there is a small spike (1.2010~1.2020), SNB offloads EUR to
move the rate closer to floor so it can buy EURO near the floor as in the
near future inflow of CHF will be much greater than outflow.

2. SNB "pretend" they can buy "huge" amount of EURO for a long time near
the floor because time will eventually work in their favour as traders
get bored.

3. SNB in their guts is afride of printing this gigantic amount otherwise they
wouldnt arrange last month's 1.207 spike

4. Political pressure mounted within Swiss politics last month when the figure
released with a 66 billion currency reserve increase

5. Therefore, if SNB is not going to introduce "capital control" near
term because they consider the current situation as "extraordinary" not
"extreme", what other measures will SNB introduce?--> Because
"extraordinary" situation accumulated over time will become "extreme"
situation eventually.

6. Therefore our long traders need to figure out an approximate amout of
currency reserve increase that will make SNB thinks the situation is not
"extraordinary" any more, it is "extreme"
  • #8,207
  • Jun 22, 2012 7:56am Jun 22, 2012 7:56am
At 3. What do you think what was the reason of the spike 207?
  • #8,208
  • Jun 22, 2012 1:25pm Jun 22, 2012 1:25pm
Looks to me like someone is trying to break the floor
  • #8,209
  • Jun 22, 2012 2:06pm Jun 22, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting brinks
Looks to me like someone is trying to break the floor
Please take a beer. It is friday evening. Just sit back and relax. SNB will do the job and hold the floor. Not matter what.
  • #8,210
  • Jun 22, 2012 2:14pm Jun 22, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting Long EUR-CHF
Please take a beer. It is friday evening. Just sit back and relax. SNB will do the job and hold the floor. Not matter what.

Haha no problems I will take a beer for you
  • #8,211
  • Jun 22, 2012 8:46pm Jun 22, 2012 8:46pm
Quoting pipxster
At 3. What do you think what was the reason of the spike 207?

I think highly likely its SNB's work, That was the week when the pressure on the floor was really building up. I think SNB pushed the level up to 1.2020~1.2030 level in the first stage to let some longs take profit and then comes the negative intrest rate thing by Danthine to trigger some short coverings by hedgefunds. And that weekend Jordan came out and said SNB is considering capital control. SNB wanted to buy some more time, but it didnt work.

This past history tells me SNB is afraid of this huge inflow, they are afraid of the consequences. And now all of a sudden, SNB changed their tone and said they are ok to buy this huge amount for a longer period of time.....

If for the past month and a half we didnt see any action from SNB to buy time, I will probably have some believe (still in doubt) that SNB has changed there policy to accept accumulating such huge amout of currency reserve in such a short period of time. But with this matter what Danthine said today is not in accordance with their action for the past months and a half. Therefore I conclude SNB is truly afraid of the current situation and will do something if not capital control.
  • #8,212
  • Jun 23, 2012 12:26am Jun 23, 2012 12:26am
SNB won't do anything if all of us are speculating they will do something.

When all of us are 'bored' & reduce our longs, then SNB may do something.

This is not economics,... this is nature's law. Don't wait for things.

Scalp instead. Know any good forex brokers for scalping this pair?
  • #8,213
  • Jun 23, 2012 12:59am Jun 23, 2012 12:59am
Quoting tim10167
I think highly likely its SNB's work, That was the week when the pressure on the floor was really building up. I think SNB pushed the level up to 1.2020~1.2030 level in the first stage to let some longs take profit and then comes the negative intrest rate thing by Danthine to trigger some short coverings by hedgefunds. And that weekend Jordan came out and said SNB is considering capital control. SNB wanted to buy some more time, but it didnt work.

This past history tells me SNB is afraid of this huge inflow, they are afraid of the consequences....
They have basically ruled out capital controls so the only thing they have is negative rates, I scanned over the quarterly report yesterday and they still think the franc is going to weaken in the second half of this year.
  • #8,214
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:16am Jun 23, 2012 1:16am
Quoting brinks
They have basically ruled out capital controls so the only thing they have is negative rates, I scanned over the quarterly report yesterday and they still think the franc is going to weaken in the second half of this year.

Chicago VIX index is now below 19, I wonder how long would it take for the pressure on the floor to come off. Next currency reserve data important.

Another possibility for the up trend move is for the European nations to solve their problems, even partially as long as there is not going to be a break up or systematic issue. But this is gonna take longer.

I guess for now, it is a wait and see game.
  • #8,215
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:22am Jun 23, 2012 1:22am
Quoting tim10167
Chicago VIX index is now below 19, I wonder how long would it take for the pressure on the floor to come off. Next currency reserve data important.

Another possibility for the up trend move is for the European nations to solve their problems, even partially as long as there is not going to be a break up or systematic issue. But this is gonna take longer.

I guess for now, it is a wait and see game.
Patience!

Yes agreed if the euro start to sort there problems out it could relieve the pressure but I'm expecting the ECB to cut rates from 1% that will again not help
  • #8,216
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:23am Jun 23, 2012 1:23am
Guys, What do you think will happen if the inflow into CHF stops and outflow begins? Obviously SNB has to unload, but do you think SNB will unload near the floor or will it let it drift higher befor it starts to unload to make some profits?
  • #8,217
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:25am Jun 23, 2012 1:25am
Quoting tim10167
Guys, What do you think will happen if the inflow into CHF stops and outflow begins? Obviously SNB has to unload, but do you think SNB will unload near the floor or will it let it drift higher befor it starts to unload to make some profits?
If it was me I would unload after it had moved higher to maximise profit but that's me.

I don't understand what the SNB have been doing so wouldn't like to say what they will do
  • #8,218
  • Jun 23, 2012 1:26am Jun 23, 2012 1:26am
Quoting brinks
Patience!

Yes agreed if the euro start to sort there problems out it could relieve the pressure but I'm expecting the ECB to cut rates from 1% that will again not help
Yes patience, brinks

But iam just trying to figure out other scenarios if SNB is afraid of introducing capital controls, and if EU gets their act together...
  • #8,219
  • Jun 23, 2012 8:22am Jun 23, 2012 8:22am
I think this pair is going to sit at 1.2010 +/- 5pips for a long long time.

Maybe downward pressure may be off once the Eurozone problem slowly heals, but SNB will take the opportunity to unload EURs.

But the EU problem is persistent and Greeks are slowing down transferring money in to Switzerland, but Spain, Italy are still pouring into Swiss but at a slower rate.

I also see a drop in long speculators (like most of us), numbers reducing slowly after SNB's 14 June statement. Overall the downward pressure on SNB's floor is slightly less & I believe Jordan/Danthine can sleep better.

So I think the best thing to do here is to : Carry trade with +ve long brokers or Scalping (prefer the latter).

Any scalpers here? Can you share some scalping tips? I'm new to scalping eurchf...
  • #8,220
  • Jun 23, 2012 10:13am Jun 23, 2012 10:13am
i just went down to the shop to buy a box of cigarette and i faced the newspapers 'GREECE EXIT EURO'

f.ck man i almost shit my pants when i realized they r talking about the football...
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