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  • #821
  • Jun 22, 2012 4:47am Jun 22, 2012 4:47am
Quoting strada
Yes, all times in that section were GMT.
thanks. will review and will post back.
Challenger
  • #822
  • Jun 22, 2012 4:53am Jun 22, 2012 4:53am
Great info Strada, as always perfect logical explanations.

Due to the awful (on going!) confusion here over times (If only the first post had been corrected!!) can you

confirm that:

"using method as laid down ~ W 7; L 13." is the 2 hours before London Open?

So you are retaining only the Stoch plus Macd colours for entry.

Anything looks better than the laid down bias method!
Do you have any preferences for an alternative?

I ran a shorter test than you and it too produced a lot fewer wins than losses.

(Good to see you're still active, btw)

rorieu




Quoting strada
Have been looking at some stats...

Results for last 4 weeks to today (all times are GMT):
using method as laid down ~ W 7; L 13.
using 6 till 7 to establish bias ~ W7: L 13.
using 5 till 6 for bias, trading from 6am ~ W 13; L 7.
NO bias, take first signal buy or sell from 6am ~ W 13; L 7
NO bias, take first signal buy or sell from 7am ~ W 11; L 9


Does any of this resonate with others?

strada.
  • #823
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:01am Jun 22, 2012 5:01am
Quoting strada
How can bias be everything, we're trading off a 1min chart after the open of one of the world's biggest trading markets, where does the bias from the previous 2 hours fit into that?
Frankly, its hard not to bring in other considerations and get this complicated again. Within the trend the bias can be anywhere when its handed over to the London market, its not going to be the same most times, in fact, it can be quite random.

Within a trend, the retracement can be quite huge depending on how much and fast the move was before the opening, like today its moved quite a bit very quickly, but I feel that London market is always being efficient, and will travel the distance to position for a better trade. As such, only mm and bigger SL placement will survive the trade. This however does not fit into a simplified strategy here. I won't be surprise in a stop out and subsequent hit of the target for this trade IMHO.
  • #824
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:11am Jun 22, 2012 5:11am
Quoting minako
loser still scratchin my head
Hi Minako, how did you get nearest swing high so closeby?
  • #825
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:15am Jun 22, 2012 5:15am
Hi Rorieu, great to hear from you, how are you these days, are you still over in the kingdom, came through it the other day after son's graduation day, got a puncture and was late for the England match, not going back for a while!!


Quoting rorieu
confirm that:

"using method as laid down ~ W 7; L 13." is the 2 hours before London Open? Yes

So you are retaining only the Stoch plus Macd colours for entry. Yes

Anything looks better than the laid down bias method!
Do you have any preferences for an alternative? [color="RoyalBlue"]You know me, I'll go where the best return is showing, so from Monday I'll be trading No bias and as I normally have everything set up for 7am (6 GMT) i'll be trading post Frankfurt open,...
All the best, strada.
  • #826
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:16am Jun 22, 2012 5:16am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post5771809

Quoting zawad4u
Hi Peter where can i get the EASY ORDER? thanks
  • #827
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:21am Jun 22, 2012 5:21am
good stuff strada , please back test the last 24mths and report back

Quoting strada
Results for last 4 weeks to today (all times are GMT):
using method as laid down ~ W 7; L 13.
using 6 till 7 to establish bias ~ W7: L 13.
using 5 till 6 for bias, trading from 6am ~ W 13; L 7.
NO bias, take first signal buy or sell from 6am ~ W 13; L 7
NO bias, take first signal buy or sell from 7am ~ W 11; L 9
  • #828
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:23am Jun 22, 2012 5:23am
Hi Strada,
very interesting stats. Especially the results with no bias. It may actually be that the market has not determined its daily bias and the early swings and "fakes" are the process by which it is decided. (order flow).

On forextsd there used to be a guy who claimed to make a lot of money trading that phenomena.

Also of course the markets have been choppy an news driven risk on/off etc.
  • #829
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:27am Jun 22, 2012 5:27am
Quoting strada
Yes, all times in that section were GMT.

here's a partial result based on what i have on my record. i also decided to walk the extra mile and check other "opens". i didnt bother with tokyo coz im sleeping by then.

L= SL hit. i placed the average pips that could be made instead of targeting 15%. id rather take home some than let my SL be hit.

if someone can give 1 year's worth of M1 data (June 14, 2012 backwards), pls post it here and i will crunch the numbers during the weekend. actually i can possibly post some before NY opens since the market is ranging.

thanks.
Attached Image
Challenger
  • #830
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:42am Jun 22, 2012 5:42am
Minako,
what stop loss did you use? fixed or last swing hi low.
Cheers,
  • #831
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:51am Jun 22, 2012 5:51am
Quoting Grumbo
Minako,
what stop loss did you use? fixed or last swing hi low.
Cheers,
SL = swing hi +1, lo -1
Challenger
  • #832
  • Jun 22, 2012 5:53am Jun 22, 2012 5:53am
Quoting PeterE
good stuff strada , please back test the last 24mths and report back
No more backtesting for me Peter, forwards only, will test this from monday on a redundant $ account I still have open but will be using some discretion.
I'll get back to you in 2 years with my results.
rgds, strada.
  • #833
  • Jun 22, 2012 6:16am Jun 22, 2012 6:16am
Quoting Grumbo
Hi Strada,
very interesting stats. Especially the results with no bias. It may actually be that the market has not determined its daily bias and the early swings and "fakes" are the process by which it is decided. (order flow).

On forextsd there used to be a guy who claimed to make a lot of money trading that phenomena.

Also of course the markets have been choppy an news driven risk on/off etc.
Hi Grumbo, interesting point you make about order flow, think that is major influence on london open.

I've been trading off 1 min charts for several years, normally starting before 7am Uk time and the London opening invariably has an agenda all of its own, if it responds to anything in a meaningful way apart from overnight/early morning news or events it will be from the previous day, US close perhaps. Even the mainland EU activity prior to London open can very often have little impact on London opening but again especially on 1min t/f. Order flow as you've mentioned will also have some impact.

1 min charts generally don't respond or relate to a lot of the parameters of high t/f's, they are a different animal and must be respected accordingly. While a 1 hour chart may be showing strong trend one way a 1min chart could be showing strong trend the other way. That is why the 1 min t/f has to be traded for exactly what we see because that is exactly what is happening this minute, literally.

All the best, strada.
  • #834
  • Jun 22, 2012 6:43am Jun 22, 2012 6:43am
Hi Guys!

trade is on at the moment.
Enter short @ 1.2543
SL: 1.2562
TP: 1.2504

"Trade what you see" hmmm. a strange picture... ;-))

We'll see how the trade develope. Due friday I think to close the trade earlier...

Bye, Alex
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sell_22.06.2012.JPG Size: 82 KB
  • #835
  • Jun 22, 2012 6:51am Jun 22, 2012 6:51am
Hi,
been a reader here since the beginning but didn't post so far
Haven't traded this method yet but now coded an indy to play with
And as always, the number of changeable parameters keeps growing to look what happens if you change this or that
So what we've got:
RangeStartTime/RangeEndTime:
- is your brokers time so you have to adjust to GMT yourself
InvertBias:
- Bias is the difference between StartTime openprice and EndTime openprice ->positive/bullish,negative/bearish bias. This option allows to invert bull/bear.
InvertSignal:
- show buy if rules say sell and vice versa. I implemented this just to see what happens, because gbpusd showed this behaviour several times
IgnoreBias:
- do what the param says. In general you will see a buy signal and a sell signal (which ever comes first) according to the rules.

IgnoreBias or not, if prior to the first valid signal the high or the low is taken out, the new bias will automatically be the direction of the break
So you shouldn't see a long below the low and a short above the high
The buy/sell arrow is shown after the candle that fits the rules has closed
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 1minute_1trade.mq4   9 KB | 529 downloads
  • #836
  • Jun 22, 2012 7:13am Jun 22, 2012 7:13am
Quoting iwjw
Hi,
been a reader here since the beginning but didn't post so far
Haven't traded this method yet but now coded an indy to play with
And as always, the number of changeable parameters keeps growing to look what happens if you change this or that
So what we've got:
RangeStartTime/RangeEndTime:
- is your brokers time so you have to adjust to GMT yourself
InvertBias:
- Bias is the difference between StartTime openprice and EndTime openprice ->positive/bullish,negative/bearish bias. This option allows to invert bull/bear.
InvertSignal:
- show...
Thanks iwjw, I'll take a look at this.
  • #837
  • Jun 22, 2012 7:45am Jun 22, 2012 7:45am
Quoting at120
Hi Guys!

trade is on at the moment.
Enter short @ 1.2543
SL: 1.2562
TP: 1.2504

"Trade what you see" hmmm. a strange picture... ;-))

We'll see how the trade develope. Due friday I think to close the trade earlier...

Bye, Alex
me too, but i exited at 20 pips! finally, a break through! but i wont trade london close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 30 KB
Challenger
  • #838
  • Jun 22, 2012 10:15am Jun 22, 2012 10:15am
Step 2
Using your market open lines draw a line from EUR open to Euro close it hasn’t got to be super accurate it has to give the general bias of the market

In this example the bias is up so we then draw a horizontal line on the low of the Euro session

If this is broken before we get a signal we then look for a short.If its not broken then we continue looking for a long trade

This is shown in Chart A
  • #839
  • Jun 22, 2012 10:56am Jun 22, 2012 10:56am
Quoting FranksBiz
Step 2
Using your market open lines draw a line from EUR open to Euro close it hasn’t got to be super accurate it has to give the general bias of the market

In this example the bias is up so we then draw a horizontal line on the low of the Euro session

If this is broken before we get a signal we then look for a short.If its not broken then we continue looking for a long trade

This is shown in Chart A
for a signal to occur stoch must be above/below 50 and macd changing from green->darkgreen or maroon->red
while we are waiting for a signal to buy (because bias is up) price breaches the low of the 2 hour range. That makes the long bias invalid and changes it to short...so now we have to wait until a short signal
  • #840
  • Jun 22, 2012 3:37pm Jun 22, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting PeterE
good stuff strada , please back test the last 24mths and report back
Sitting in my hotel room in oxford on my iPhone just scanning these results do look interesting and would like to investigate further myself which I will do when home

P
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