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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #317,141
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:43pm Jun 21, 2012 4:43pm
15 downgrades total
1 firm (Credit Suisse) lowered by 3 notches to A2 from Aa2, outlook stable
10 firms lowered by 2
4 firms lowered 1 notch
Morgan Stanley 2 notches to Baa1 (there was talk of 3 notches)
Citigroup lowered to Baa2, outlook negative
UBS lowered 2 notches, there was talk of 3
RBS lowered 1 notch to Baa1, outlook negative
Goldman to 2 notches to A3 from A1
HSBC 1 notch to AA2
Barclays 2 notches to A3
BNP Paribas 2 notches to AA3
Credit Agricole 2 notches to AA3
RBC to two notches to Aa3
Soc Gen 1 notch to A2
Deutsche Bank 2 notches to A2
Fortis, Lloyds and Bank of America the others.
No bank was lowered more than Moody’s outlined in Feb, when it foreshadowed the moves
  • #317,142
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:47pm Jun 21, 2012 4:47pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting _BBKing_
ok guys.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.... actually i see no reasons to look for a long position, (scalps excluded)
give an eye @daily chart.
let's forget for 1 second the thiny dotted channel: daily pivot will update near previous lows so meaning 5620-40 pip more pip less.

hourly chart is even more clear: if price goes up, will have to fight with a lot of bears.

i will be looking to open shorts few pips above here or around here if price gives no signs of recover. only a strong breaking above this daily pivot and price using it as support will...
Very nice analysis BB. I would have to agree with those technicals 100% there. For me personally I won't be looking to put long term Buys on unless we crack this weeks highs. PA just does not agree with it.

Like you said we kissed off the 50% retrace of the last major move down. Also for me the move up to that level appeared extremely artificial in the first place. Of course there will be retraces, the markets would not function without them but overall the downward momentum is still in place. Good luck to all of you.
  • #317,143
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:56pm Jun 21, 2012 4:56pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
How bout today's low red? .5577 You called it off the cloud & it was also the Daily S2. To the pip. That's crazy man.
Attached Image
  • #317,144
  • Jun 21, 2012 5:00pm Jun 21, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting redbeben
true but not 24 h

if we don't bounce hard we will only see 1.5675-5695 in the next 25 hours....and if we pierce the 1.5677 after those 25 h we're good to climb.

this on H1

on M15 I see 1.5655 in the next 2-3 hours....but in the next 2-3 hours we'll have the Moody's so I don't trust it....even if blue and red about to give a buy confirmation.

I will stick to the initial plan of 1.5784-1.5962 for next week or first 2 days of other week
lol
we are saying almost the saying thing
pip more pip less!

initially i thought you were hoping for a total upmove reverse up.
well, we know the levels, let's give market the last words
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #317,145
  • Jun 21, 2012 5:01pm Jun 21, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting eggs
Very nice analysis BB. I would have to agree with those technicals 100% there. For me personally I won't be looking to put long term Buys on unless we crack this weeks highs. PA just does not agree with it.

Like you said we kissed off the 50% retrace of the last major move down. Also for me the move up to that level appeared extremely artificial in the first place. Of course there will be retraces, the markets would not function without them but overall the downward momentum is still in place. Good luck to all of you.
these days are becoming a strong test for the "supply-demand" rules.
let's see
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #317,146
  • Jun 21, 2012 5:20pm Jun 21, 2012 5:20pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting _BBKing_
these days are becoming a strong test for the "supply-demand" rules.
let's see
I'll take the ole' supply-demand rules ANY day!
  • #317,147
  • Jun 21, 2012 5:30pm Jun 21, 2012 5:30pm
Quoting redbeben
don't count on that 1.5600 mate.

1.5577 is a better entry and it below your SL

1.5588 is the 50% fibo on the rise 1.5400- 1.5774 so it might test it
you were spot on with your observation. where you think is the next level from here? i am already holding my longs
  • #317,148
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:15pm Jun 21, 2012 7:15pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
It seems most conversation here on the forum is centered around where price is headed too next. More importantly what level will be reached & when. For us technical traders we rely on Fibs & Trendlines as much as anything. Another tool I often use is standard deviation channels. It combines the two automatically.

Standard deviation channel using price data from June1 > June 15. That timeline represents the end of the May sell off & when price first began making HIGHER HIGHS & HIGHER LOWS. June 15 is the last day before price significantly broke out of the original zone & began trading above 5600. The deviation channel is drawn as a "ray" extending the lines beyond the 15th of this month to current plotting & predicting dynamic areas of support & resistance with an impressive degree of accuracy. The deviation formula is calculated using FIB expansion levels of 1.618 & 1.272.


I realize this is elementary stuff for most of you guys here but it seems that a SMALL percentage of folks viewing the forum at any given time vs/ ones who actually post is quite small. It was not so long ago that I was one of those traders searching the FF forums for anything that gave me a greater understanding of what affects price & how to read it. So I just like to throw up some basic sh*t sometimes as It keeps my own analysis sound as well.
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  • #317,149
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:28pm Jun 21, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting eggs

...

I realize this is elementary stuff for most of you guys here but it seems that a SMALL percentage of folks viewing the forum at any given time vs/ ones who actually post is quite small. It was not so long ago that I was one of those traders searching the FF forums for anything that gave me a greater understanding of what affects price & how to read it. So I just like to throw up some basic sh*t sometimes as It keeps my own analysis sound as well.
I was once that same kind of trader which only browsed the Forums in search for useful information without commenting, nothing wrong with that though, it helped me for about 4 years (yes I had been watching FF from the outside that long) and now I like to comment and post what I see in hopes to help somebody who is here like I was some time ago, It also helps me to keep focused on the daily analysis if I have to post something structured and clear. It is good to see there are others with the same thoughts.
  • #317,150
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:33pm Jun 21, 2012 7:33pm
This is the daily chart review by the way:

I see a channel just like those posted previously, for me price has reacted to the confluence of resistance marked by the Bollinger Band and 200+100+50 EMA together with a small divergence, however the lower part of the channel might signify a barrier for price to move any lower, I'd like to see it break that trendline before considering a setup.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-j8-3Mwb3lx...06-21+-+01.gif
  • #317,151
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:51pm Jun 21, 2012 7:51pm
Quoting Eric D
I was once that same kind of trader which only browsed the Forums in search for useful information without commenting, nothing wrong with that though, it helped me for about 4 years (yes I had been watching FF from the outside that long) and now I like to comment and post what I see in hopes to help somebody who is here like I was some time ago, It also helps me to keep focused on the daily analysis if I have to post something structured and clear. It is good to see there are others with the same thoughts.
Agreed...
Teaching by learning, learning by teaching...
  • #317,152
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:52pm Jun 21, 2012 7:52pm
Let's see if this is upside move for the last hours is a continuation of the bull trend or a just a correction. 1.5675 looks like decisive spot.
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As Above, So Below
  • #317,153
  • Jun 21, 2012 10:10pm Jun 21, 2012 10:10pm
There is a possible long set-up on the 4hr chart, below is a video of my possible entry and exits...

Inserted Video
  • #317,154
  • Jun 21, 2012 10:50pm Jun 21, 2012 10:50pm
waiting bull and bear : MODE ON
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not euphoria follower
  • #317,155
  • Jun 21, 2012 10:57pm Jun 21, 2012 10:57pm
Quoting AusPunter79
There is a possible long set-up on the 4hr chart, below is a video of my possible entry and exits...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXicYFYU4M4
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #317,156
  • Edited 12:41am Jun 22, 2012 12:24am | Edited 12:41am
Quoting eggs
It seems most conversation here on the forum is centered around where price is headed too next. More importantly what level will be reached & when. For us technical traders we rely on Fibs & Trendlines as much as anything. Another tool I often use is standard deviation channels. It combines the two automatically.

Standard deviation channel using price data from June1 > June 15. That timeline represents the end of the May sell off & when price first began making HIGHER HIGHS & HIGHER LOWS. June 15 is the last day before price significantly broke...
Good chart & sees.
watching cretical areas for bear or bounce some towards the top or more even are 5563 & 5466 arrounds .a smaller correction towards limit now 5654 likely before further down or last chance spike up towards the top or up before breaking those watched levels ..

similarly in gold , watching 1558 if breaks for 1526confirmation for more down towards 1509 or so or still have intention for 1673 before confirmation level or 1509 or down again . still I have next limit down for bull 1031 in mind long time .impossible to be possible , rewinding/melt down the whole world economy in a slow fashion to get time adjust -readjust the situation /disaster > going back to 2008 age ( gold was 650$ time )
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #317,157
  • Jun 22, 2012 1:47am Jun 22, 2012 1:47am
wait and see who is the winner in daily open and around aqua box
Quoting iqyu5an
waiting bull and bear : MODE ON
not euphoria follower
  • #317,158
  • Jun 22, 2012 2:55am Jun 22, 2012 2:55am
  • #317,159
  • Jun 22, 2012 3:03am Jun 22, 2012 3:03am
G/M,

Bounce up just short of Thursday's Lo - at the 38.2% 5267-5776 and ascending 4hr trend line at the previous Daily/4hr swing hi (prev resistance ) zone

Will there be a downside follow thru on Thursday's bearish thrust candle ?

Looks like 4hr pa remains mixed and 1hr could be in a general opa downtrend ?

G/L
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ex member
  • #317,160
  • Jun 22, 2012 3:14am Jun 22, 2012 3:14am
Closing in on 1hr - price finding supply at the pullback hi - the previous dly/4hr/1hr swing lo zone (prev support) Above here are the Daily/Weekly Pivots @/around 5633 / 5630 respectively, the Monthly Pivot @/around 5669, with Daily R1 @/arouund 5689, Daily R2 5788.

G/L
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ex member
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