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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #36,321
  • Jun 20, 2012 5:16am Jun 20, 2012 5:16am
Quoting Trader131
Yesterday's long on cable was just stopped out on that news spike +10 pips. Look at this - I mean, talk about criminal! My Sl wa just under the daily pivot. Euro long still running, and I entered long again and grabbed 2o pips up to the figure.15 min cable chart below. Will look to reenter long on a dip
Now that's really gutting mate but at least you able to bank some profit on the last part. It'd have been even more hard to take if you'd just broken even on it!
  • #36,322
  • Jun 20, 2012 6:46am Jun 20, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Trader131
Yesterday's long on cable was just stopped out on that news spike +10 pips. Look at this - I mean, talk about criminal! My Sl wa just under the daily pivot. Euro long still running, and I entered long again and grabbed 2o pips up to the figure.15 min cable chart below. Will look to reenter long on a dip
131,

Just curious whether your stop was filled at your intended price or whether you had a lot of slippage with that spike?

I'm guessing it will be pretty quite until the Fed statement later on...
  • #36,323
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:10am Jun 20, 2012 7:10am
No slippage on that spike for me, dharma. Bit of an obvious stop hunt though! Never got a decent chance for an entry after that. Cable is at quite strong resistance now, I'm watching to see how it goes
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,324
  • Jun 20, 2012 11:49am Jun 20, 2012 11:49am
Took an EU long here at 46. Closed at 58 and 76...

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Click to Enlarge Name: EU2012-06-20_10-41.jpg Size: 182 KB


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  • #36,325
  • Jun 20, 2012 12:18pm Jun 20, 2012 12:18pm
Well, closed that position much too early it seems... Green pips so I'm not complaining.

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  • #36,326
  • Jun 20, 2012 3:38pm Jun 20, 2012 3:38pm
Turned out well, Dharma. Out of interest what made you pull the trigger- was it the 1hr 62ma, or the impulse corrective bars on the 1 min that you like- or a bit of both?
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,327
  • Jun 20, 2012 4:26pm Jun 20, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting Trader131
Turned out well, Dharma. Out of interest what made you pull the trigger- was it the 1hr 62ma, or the impulse corrective bars on the 1 min that you like- or a bit of both?
The 1H 50/62 were right there as well as the 15M 200SMA. There was also a previous S/R area at 40. I wasn't looking at the 1M but the 5M wasn't going below the previous 15M bar low and looked like it was starting to form what would be a DBLHC. I figured we would see at least a small bounce at that point which is why I covered 1/2 so quickly. Should have let the other 1/2 run like usual though.

Unfortunately, I tried another EU long when price seemed to be staying above the 35/50 and got stopped out on that which washed out my gains from the earlier trade. Looking back, the failure of the 15M to first close above the previous highs was a clue that this may not be a retracement. I also chased a bit after that first pin through the MAs and got a lousy fill at 11 and it never got up to a point where I would consider covering 1/2. Had I waited and bought down the wick this could have been a positive pip trade.
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We really didn't get any direction in the market from the Fed statement so it looks like Europe is probably still driving the bus for now.
  • #36,328
  • Jun 21, 2012 2:34am Jun 21, 2012 2:34am
Quoting DharmaTrader
The 1H 50/62 were right there as well as the 15M 200SMA. There was also a previous S/R area at 40. I wasn't looking at the 1M but the 5M wasn't going below the previous 15M bar low and looked like it was starting to form what would be a DBLHC. I figured we would see at least a small bounce at that point which is why I covered 1/2 so quickly. Should have let the other 1/2 run like usual though.

Unfortunately, I tried another EU long when price seemed to be staying above the 35/50 and got stopped out on that which washed out my gains from the...
Hey Dharma.

Yep, I think you are right about the hint being that that large candle failed to close high and failed to close above those prev highs. I always see big candles like that, that close back in the middle of the candle as a big warning that something isn't quite right with the move.

Also, I usually pay little attention to the mas when they are as flat as they are on that trade. If I do look at them, they have to have some sort of decent angle to them. I have to say though, the more my reading of price actions progresses, the less I actually use the mas.

Just one other thing. I think you got in before the H1 candle closed as a bullish shooting star (ish) candle back into the range. As with the 15m candle that did this, this is showing real rejection from the area and should have given you some more warning that you may want to think about closing the trade down.

It's always easier to be smart after the event though so I could never say for sure how I would have handled that situation in real time but these were the things that were most clear to me.
  • #36,329
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:11am Jun 21, 2012 3:11am
Morning all.

Here's one I took earlier, just before taking the boys to school. I looked at the charts and saw the chart below. A nice easy entry off the 1hr 62 (15min 248)ma, and 15min 50ma's. See how pricemoved south through the ma's, consolidated and then retraced to test them, forming a pin, I entered in the next candle as it retested the 248ma at 93 with a tight 10pipSL above the figure. Was happy to go out and leave it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min.gif Size: 18 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,330
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:13am Jun 21, 2012 3:13am
On returning I,ve covered half +26 pips and moved my SL down to BE. Easy money!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min1sttp.gif Size: 18 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,331
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:21am Jun 21, 2012 3:21am
Dharma, it's always tricky trading around news. I think you were actually right in covering quickly, as she could just as easily have whipsawed south again in one candle. Smash and grab mode!

I can see why you took the long, but as you and Trotty have pointed out, that bull candle closing below the highs was a warning that sellers were still strong. It's always difficult around news, as price is moved around to trick retail traders into getting on the wrong bus/ get stopped out. before finally having direction
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,332
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:28am Jun 21, 2012 3:28am
Long Euro at 53 after inverted hangman. Have cut cable short +10 pips as we are seeing a very strong DBLHC and engulfing candle form
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,333
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:32am Jun 21, 2012 3:32am
Have covered Euro at the 10ma. There you go- would have been stopped out on cable- cable chart below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min.gif Size: 18 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,334
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:43am Jun 21, 2012 3:43am
It shows how flexible you need to be trading the 15min charts. If you can see that something like a bullish engulfing/DBLHC/ pin is forming against your trade not too far away from your stop, just get out, don't sit there waiting for your stop to be hit. Reverse if you can get a decent entry(that's why I went long on Euro as cable had already moved too far, although Euro seems the weakest of the three so may not be such a smart move!)
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,335
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:49am Jun 21, 2012 3:49am
Covered a few more +16pips at the 35ma. this is CT from a lower low on 15min, so taking profits early is always good, as we may go back to test the low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,336
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:25am Jun 21, 2012 4:25am
Closing rest of euro long +27pips at the upper trendline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 21 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,337
  • Jun 21, 2012 6:16am Jun 21, 2012 6:16am
Entered long on both cable and euro at about the same time on retraces to the 1hr62ema (15min 50's there as well)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min.gif Size: 18 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,338
  • Jun 21, 2012 6:26am Jun 21, 2012 6:26am
Covering 1half at +24pips on Euro and +16 cable
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur15min1st tp.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cable15min1st tp.gif Size: 18 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,339
  • Jun 21, 2012 6:50am Jun 21, 2012 6:50am
Cable not really going, so cutting the rest of cable long +2pips, hourly looking bearish
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #36,340
  • Jun 21, 2012 6:53am Jun 21, 2012 6:53am
out euro too, not liking it +6pips
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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