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EUR/CHF

  • #8,141
  • Jun 20, 2012 3:03pm Jun 20, 2012 3:03pm
There's absolutely zero chance of them rasing the peg any time soon. If it were that viable and straightfporward, they would've done it already - why do you think they didn't do anything about 6 months ago? EUR/CHF was rising up towards 1.25, and it would have seemed like the perfect time to raise the peg...but they didn't (and there's obviously a good reason for it). With more pressure than ever on the Swissie now, an increase in the floor is wishful thinking to say the least.
The peg cannot go on forever, as they're spending billions defending it already. The longer the crisis persists, and money flows into Switzerland, it's possible it could get to stage where the amount of money spent / Francs printed by the SNB will be detrimental to the economy and it will have to be abandoned (like the 1.50 limit was several years back). The crisis in the eurozone is more likely to come to a head than to 'sort itself out'.
  • #8,142
  • Jun 20, 2012 4:25pm Jun 20, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting Svizzera
There's absolutely zero chance of them rasing the peg any time soon. If it were that viable and straightfporward, they would've done it already - why do you think they didn't do anything about 6 months ago? EUR/CHF was rising up towards 1.25, and it would have seemed like the perfect time to raise the peg...but they didn't (and there's obviously a good reason for it). With more pressure than ever on the Swissie now, an increase in the floor is wishful thinking to say the least.
The peg cannot go on forever, as they're spending billions defending...
Sorry to say that, no offence at all but the situation is much more complex than you write, first of all snb does not spend anything to hold the floor. The cost is zero.its a future risk but not a cost.
  • #8,143
  • Jun 20, 2012 4:56pm Jun 20, 2012 4:56pm
guys, we do have have some rich people over the world in this forum. and this make this forum more interesting. If a person is already a millionaire, obviously it is normal for that person's next goal to become a "multi" millionaire

Alexcee,If u succeed, I'll fly from Taiwan(where Iam from) to join your party!
  • #8,144
  • Jun 20, 2012 5:04pm Jun 20, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting tomplank
Fxworld, I hope you will invite me too.
The big guy we were talking tonight is not fxworld, it's alexcee, so ur going to his party too? Haha
  • #8,145
  • Jun 20, 2012 5:11pm Jun 20, 2012 5:11pm
The biggest seller of EURO has been SNB, what is costy is that Euro is going to gain value and the question is that up to when SNB will buy euro when it falls and sells when it gains it is silly and costy and will be stopped, we will see a change in their policy soon maybe sooner than expected and if they want to do that this is the time because after last week conference many long positions went closed and if it takes time many other longs will be added.
  • #8,146
  • Jun 20, 2012 5:20pm Jun 20, 2012 5:20pm
Quoting Svizzera
There's absolutely zero chance of them rasing the peg any time soon. If it were that viable and straightfporward, they would've done it already - why do you think they didn't do anything about 6 months ago? EUR/CHF was rising up towards 1.25, and it would have seemed like the perfect time to raise the peg...but they didn't (and there's obviously a good reason for it). With more pressure than ever on the Swissie now, an increase in the floor is wishful thinking to say the least.
The peg cannot go on forever, as they're spending billions defending...
The story is different now compare to before. SNB did a stupid decision on defending 1.50(even unofficially) because the fair value at that time was around 1.40, it's set to fail. And even if they let it go down below 1.50, givin the world economy was doing ok that time, the Swiss industries survived ok in the 1.40 areas.

I agree SNB might not raise the peg near term, and I also agree most peg fail eventually, but that is the second part of the story, the next scene. The story currently playing now is givin all the internal and external conditions, economic datas etc...... the Swiss will have to hold at least within the next 6-12 months time.
  • #8,147
  • Jun 20, 2012 5:23pm Jun 20, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting holmes
The biggest seller of EURO has been SNB, what is costy is that Euro is going to gain value and the question is that up to when SNB will buy euro when it falls and sells when it gains it is silly and costy and will be stopped, we will see a change in their policy soon maybe sooner than expected and if they want to do that this is the time because after last week conference many long positions went closed and if it takes time many other longs will be added.
I agree, I like it when SNB is quiet like now, as this is normally when a surprise comes
  • #8,148
  • Jun 20, 2012 6:02pm Jun 20, 2012 6:02pm
Quoting pipxster
Sorry to say that, no offence at all but the situation is much more complex than you write, first of all snb does not spend anything to hold the floor. The cost is zero.its a future risk but not a cost.
The cost in question is the cost to the Swiss economy in the long run.
  • #8,149
  • Jun 20, 2012 7:34pm Jun 20, 2012 7:34pm
How long can the SNB keep bluffing?
What I see from them is not keeping the floor but the ceiling. Switzerland is the exporter of mostly food, pharmaceuticals, watch, and services. I assume Wikipedia needs to add CHF to the list. by keeping the word that they try spending to weaken CHF they have made the world buy their printed paper for a fortune which is not fair but is still working. the warning is when the market assures what is happening how can Swiss bank restore the value. While in the economic catastrophic situation countries keep working hard, Switzerland, by bluffing, adds to balance sheets and gains, but when revealed there will be no credibility there.
  • #8,150
  • Jun 20, 2012 9:16pm Jun 20, 2012 9:16pm
It's actually looking quite interesting on the daily timeframe...

Till now 30 SMA (green) held every day, but yesterdays candle (nearly a bullish hammer) closed above.
Now if the 50 SMA (red) also breaks there would be space till 1,2030 or even higher!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eurchf 21.6.2012.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #8,151
  • Jun 20, 2012 10:35pm Jun 20, 2012 10:35pm
Quoting martin1984
I am sure that we will earn money on eur / chf. 1.25 peg.
but we have to wait a little bit.
Can u explain these pictures meaning?
  • #8,152
  • Jun 20, 2012 10:38pm Jun 20, 2012 10:38pm
Quoting tim10167
I agree, I like it when SNB is quiet like now, as this is normally when a surprise comes
Snb always will do!
  • #8,153
  • Jun 21, 2012 1:06am Jun 21, 2012 1:06am
Trade balance better than expected
  • #8,154
  • Jun 21, 2012 1:12am Jun 21, 2012 1:12am
Quoting brinks
Trade balance better than expected
YA, Printed CHF, exported last month, must be counted.
  • #8,155
  • Jun 21, 2012 1:14am Jun 21, 2012 1:14am
Quoting brinks
Trade balance better than expected
Swiss balance of trade were in positive territory even during the financial crisis of 2008~09:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/swit...lance-of-trade

So it is important to understand what trade balance means to the Swiss economic structure, Swiss is a very export oriented country, so, even in a crisis, the figure could still be positive. But its GDP turned negative during the crisis.

Thats why I see Swiss can "just" hold on with $1.20, but not $1 or below.
  • #8,156
  • Jun 21, 2012 1:16am Jun 21, 2012 1:16am
So, what Iam trying to say above is for Swiss, positive trade balance dosent mean its GDP cant turn negative.....:nerd:
  • #8,157
  • Jun 21, 2012 1:23am Jun 21, 2012 1:23am
Quoting tim10167
So, what Iam trying to say above is for Swiss, positive trade balance dosent mean its GDP cant turn negative.....:nerd:
Industrial production next will see what that brings.
  • #8,158
  • Edited 1:37am Jun 21, 2012 1:25am | Edited 1:37am
For example like USA, it has a negative balance of trade for decades regardless whether its GDP is growing or not, so we really have to look at each individual country, they are all different. Therefore, trade balance may only be a minor indicator for Swiss. But from recent history, if the Swiss trade balance falls below 1 billion, we can say something bad is happening. It dosent have to be negative
  • #8,159
  • Jun 21, 2012 1:27am Jun 21, 2012 1:27am
Even though they export more, the profits from those goods are getting smaller, due to stronger swissy therefore companies have to reduce their margin to stay competitive. This means their GDF is falling eversince.
  • #8,160
  • Jun 21, 2012 1:31am Jun 21, 2012 1:31am
Thanks i'm not a fundamental trader so i just look at the headline number

sadly you cant look at this pair technically anymore
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