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EurAnalysis

  • #36,921
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:12am Jun 14, 2012 2:12am
Quoting BFSGcapital
Anyone ever notice how a bottom formation is put in right as London opens?? Ugh here we go again...
Faded already, cmon baby down! Stop with this volatility already!
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,922
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:12am Jun 14, 2012 2:12am
Quoting D2tz
it's touched the bottom trendline from June 1st to today and now going north never to see the lows of the day for quite a few days imo
I wouldn't be so sure about anything today and tomorrow. Read my Morning Update to see what I mean.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #36,923
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:12am Jun 14, 2012 2:12am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting D2tz
it's touched the bottom trendline from June 1st to today and now going north never to see the lows of the day for quite a few days imo
Markets don't have a mind of it's own. Traders are not willing to take that risk once Greek elections are on a door. I'm surprised if we see above 1.26 today after yesterday. I expect we are scratching our bottoms today. And friday is a scary day - everybody is closing all their trades to get out of market for weekend. Just wondering how price will behave....?
  • #36,924
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:13am Jun 14, 2012 2:13am
Quoting D2tz
it's touched the bottom trendline from June 1st to today and now going north never to see the lows of the day for quite a few days imo
My June1st channel comes in at 2545, so not touched yet, but yesterday it bounced hard off of it.

What a crazy first 15m of london open, going to be an interesting battle today I think

We do have two 1hr bull divergences from earlier (5-10 hours ago), but I'm not sure how much that matters now.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,925
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:15am Jun 14, 2012 2:15am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
PT, do you you have anything on latest poll on Greeks elections? Which party is leading in opinions surveys?
  • #36,926
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:21am Jun 14, 2012 2:21am
oh wow. this is a first in 7 years...

Due to the extreme volatility some market analysts foresee could result in the coming days, OANDA fxTrade will not accept any trading activity from 6:00 AM EST until approximately 3:00 PM EST, on Sunday, June 17, 2012. OANDA believes the convergence of a major market event during off-market hours represents a potential trading risk and has taken this rare step to protect traders from excessive rate fluctuations.

Please note that during this halt in trading, you can still access your account details but no trading activity will be accepted. For this reason, OANDA strongly recommends that all traders consider minimizing currency exposures prior to the trading halt.

If you do intend to maintain open positions during this period, be aware that OANDA will hold exchange rates steady during the trading halt. However, when trading resumes, rates will immediately adjust to the current market rate and it is possible that the updated rate could result in a margin closeout if the price has moved significantly against your positions. Therefore, it is your responsibility to ensure you have adequate funds in your account to prevent a margin closeout.

OANDA apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause.

For more information, please contact a Customer Service representative.

Best regards,

The OANDA Canada team
fxtrade.oanda.ca
  • #36,927
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:22am Jun 14, 2012 2:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
I wouldn't be so sure about anything today and tomorrow. Read my Morning Update to see what I mean.
Hi PT, could you link or quote it?
thanks in advance.
  • #36,928
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:25am Jun 14, 2012 2:25am
Quoting AFXFin
PT, do you you have anything on latest poll on Greeks elections? Which party is leading in opinions surveys?
No polling is allowed for two weeks before election. Unless there is an illegal leak, we're in the dark till Sunday afternoon.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #36,929
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:27am Jun 14, 2012 2:27am
Quoting D2tz
Hi PT, could you link or quote it?
thanks in advance.
Here you go...


Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all,

The decision day for Greece is drawing near. This is going to be one of the few major events which will dictate direction for this pair. I expect a nice gap over the weekend. If a pro-austerity gov is elected (ND and/or Pasok), we should see a gap up. If an anti-austerity gov is elected (Syriza), we should see a gap down. If we end up with a stalemate like last time, then it's all going to hinge on what happens after the elections but we will likely see a status quo at first with loads of volatile choppiness while the market...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #36,930
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:30am Jun 14, 2012 2:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all,

The decision day for Greece is drawing near. This is going to be one of the few major events which will dictate direction for this pair. I expect a nice gap over the weekend. If a pro-austerity gov is elected (ND and/or Pasok), we should see a gap up. If an anti-austerity gov is elected (Syriza), we should see a gap down. If we end up with a stalemate like last time, then it's all going to hinge on what happens after the elections but we will likely see a status quo at first with loads of volatile choppiness while the market...
Did I mentioned that I Love your morning updates!? Mmm niam niam
69
  • #36,931
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:33am Jun 14, 2012 2:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here you go...
good stuff. in line with what Oanda's warning about.
Thanks for taking the time..
  • #36,932
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:34am Jun 14, 2012 2:34am
Wow! 30M of nothing... Come on Mr. Market, choose a side and let's go!
  • #36,933
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:34am Jun 14, 2012 2:34am
be cool, dude.

Quoting FXSwissTrader
Lighten up bro. No mention of yesterday. That's water under the bridge. Congrats on a good day. Just remember we are all here to share information with each other. It's not a competition.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #36,934
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:35am Jun 14, 2012 2:35am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
No polling is allowed for two weeks before election. Unless there is an illegal leak, we're in the dark till Sunday afternoon.
If I recall right the latest poll was that Syriza had a good lead against all others which would predict drop in EURUSD price. Tsirpas had an announcement today that he's still not willing to do bailout with current terms.

Also there was a leak from money printing company, which said that some country had renewed their order to print new money. It is suspected that it is Greeks, who are preparing for exit. Or maybe it is just a BS, to confuse markets.

Interesting is that if Syriza will not get enough votes to get proper majority, they are still not able to form government. Just wondering what next? New elections? Greeks will run out of money in the end of this month...
  • #36,935
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:35am Jun 14, 2012 2:35am
Quoting Wulfgar
I agree intraday market moves are, have been, and always will be relatively nonsensical since the bulk of the moves are really just the larger players hunting for liquidity to fill huge orders and net profits...

But some fundies do help the process along... And today just happens the Aussie was the big winner as it assaulted parity again to the USD
i wonder what the new paradigm will be after sunday......

i am totally flat now...anybody holding trades over this weekend or going flat?
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #36,936
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:38am Jun 14, 2012 2:38am
Would be happier if we went down a little more to test the demand zone before heading up either way I'm off to work...
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,937
  • Edited 2:53am Jun 14, 2012 2:42am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all,

So what about today? Well, it's become clear to me over the last two days that there is a lot of positioning going on by sovereigns and other big players. This positioning is most likely part of a rebalancing of reserves and some hedges to be prepared to absorb the shock of any eventuality regarding Greece.
1.2670, 1.2720, 1.2780, 1.2810/20, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3070 are all possible levels. Any further up than that and it will be a sign that traders and investors have gone absolutely mad.

To the downside,...
As always very nice morning update....I totally agree on the bold areas as well as on the whole post...IMO there will be more panic situation if the price moves up so more short covering today and tomorrow....
EDIT: If the price move down then level to watch 1.2440, 1.2420, 1.2380
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #36,938
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:43am Jun 14, 2012 2:43am
will it be the high 1.26 or high 1.24 for today.. hmmm

I am basing myself on the June 1st bottom trend line on 4 hours TF. long and hoping for a new high around 1.2690
  • #36,939
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:43am Jun 14, 2012 2:43am
Quoting Skynet
i wonder what the new paradigm will be after sunday......

i am totally flat now...anybody holding trades over this weekend or going flat?
flat for sure. no need to take unnecessary risks.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,940
  • Jun 14, 2012 2:46am Jun 14, 2012 2:46am
i am long at 1.2570 with a target price at 1.2620 sl 1.2556. its just a probe trade to have a better feeling for the PA
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
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