EurAnalysis

Agreed! In your opinion, would it be unwise to hold positions in other currency pairs over the weekend?

Could the outcome affect ALL other currency pairs?

Short Cancelled,Daily close & Current 4H not supported,looking a valid setup for short again



GL

My guess would be yes, but better to ask someone like PT. I only trade one pair anyway.

If Syrizia is voted in, it could be risk off across the board (I think) which would affect all pairs. I wouldn't risk it, honestly, it really isn't worth it for these uncertain events

Thanks Halifax, I respect your opinion.

I normally trade EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. This week (and last week) has been very difficult all across the board, for me anyways...

Technically (1.288-1.30) has no problem. Fundamentally: If the Greece Goverment reaches the mayority in the parlament this weekend. You will see 1.30

Some EW before sleep

I would like the red one to get a nice long there...

See you tomorrow!!!

But why? You never gave the reason why, technically or fundamentally. To me that is too large of a retracement. Even if Greece did not exist we would still be headed down, they aren't even the largest problem in the Eurozone :/ It all hangs on June 20th, speculative QE and very large net short position is the only reason for longs now.

If we don't get it (QE) which we probably won't, markets WILL force QE by destroying the Euro and therefore everything priced in USD. Gold will hold its gains the best as always, but still better to just short Euro and then long PMs when QE is announced (my guess is Q1, 2013)

Goodnight.

I am short I hope dont make a mistake I really like a big breakdown right now!!! I saw a nice W

hoping head and shoulders forms on the 4hr chart, just need to go down today, which would make sense because we bulled all yesterday

I'm guessing down until London, then a trip higher ceterus paribus.

Got stopped out of my earlier trade at -20(-.5%)

the 2550/2555 held the first test at the 52

Will look to reenter once again with some momentum and a close under the 64... will manually watch to see if the 2550 area holds again

We did NOT reach the 2600 so shorts are still valid both FA and PA pointing south

Good morning all,

The decision day for Greece is drawing near. This is going to be one of the few major events which will dictate direction for this pair. I expect a nice gap over the weekend. If a pro-austerity gov is elected (ND and/or Pasok), we should see a gap up. If an anti-austerity gov is elected (Syriza), we should see a gap down. If we end up with a stalemate like last time, then it's all going to hinge on what happens after the elections but we will likely see a status quo at first with loads of volatile choppiness while the market goes into chaos trying to decide whether to run for the exit or just get comfy.

There are two other events coming up which will have a significant effect on this pair, but they are next week so there is no sense in focusing on them right now as there is much more focus on a day to day basis right now. First one is G20 meetings on Monday and Tuesday, followed by the FOMC rate statement on Wednesday.

So what about today? Well, it's become clear to me over the last two days that there is a lot of positioning going on by sovereigns and other big players. This positioning is most likely part of a rebalancing of reserves and some hedges to be prepared to absorb the shock of any eventuality regarding Greece. Such moves are far to complex to gauge, but at the end of the day (at least for me) I am looking at protecting my current weaker shorts and also setting up to take advantage of any rallies as an opportunity to open fresh shorts at higher prices.

How high will it go in the case of a rally? It's really not something anyone can predict. The technicals will not tell us where it will go, but they can give us some possible ideas. 1.2670, 1.2720, 1.2780, 1.2810/20, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3070 are all possible levels. Any further up than that and it will be a sign that traders and investors have gone absolutely mad.

To the downside, we have 1.2440, 1.2420, 1.2380, 1.2280, 1.2230 followed by the abyss.

Anyway, today and tomorrow should remain choppy and bouncy like a yo-yo. Good idea to protect yourself before the weekend by reducing or eliminating any open positions you may have. If you don't want to reduce or eliminate but still want some protection, you can at least hedge your trades.

Best of luck and many green pips to all.

E/U H4

Currently testing the Weekly Pivot at 1.2564

break through will open the gate for the bear !!! right ?

Technically: here is a ABC correction in EW so you can see that C could reach any of those levels. If right now there is a small correction @1.253 and then break 1.261 the possibilities increase because the targets depends of the deep of the first retracement...

Fundamentally: Nobody knows how long gets the market after the election, but how you said the is: "large net short position" (its the biggest all times). If the election is really good to Greece stays in the EZ, the possibility that fear fills all those people is big and then covered the shorts.

Well, right below the Weekly Pivot we have the Daily pivot at 1.255.

Once both are broken I think it would be safe to say we will head down to the S1 (or close to) at 1.25.

But I don't know for sure, this market has been very choppy this week, I haven't done so well!

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
June 14, 2012 at 05:37 GMT

EUR/USD: Tech sup 1.2545/55 (21 day MA 1.2548), Bids 1.2520/30. Offers 1.2590/2610, buy stops through 1.2615 and 1.2635

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5505/15 and 1.5450/60. Offers 1.5580/00, likely buy stops above.

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8125/30. Large buy stops up through 0.8155 and 0.8170. Tech sup 0.8070/75, 0.8035/40

USD/JPY: Bids 79.20 down to 79.00, stops just below ahead of tech supp 78.70/75 (78.71-200 day MA), more sell stops below. Offers 79.70/80 (sovereigns) and 79.90/00 (exporters), buy stops just above. Tech res 80.23 (100 Day MA) and larger buy stops through 80.25.

EUR/JPY: Bids/tech supp 99.60/70, offers 100.00/10 buy stops through 100.15

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/35

USD/CHF: Tech supp 0.9520/30 and 0.9480/90, res 0.0.9565/75 and 0.9590/00

AUD/USD: Offers 0.9980/00, buy stops through 1.0010, tech res 1.0025/30 (1.0028-50% 1.0475/0.9581). Bids 0.9925/35, sell stops just below ahead of more bids 0.9900/10, sell stops below

AUD/JPY: Tech res 79.60/70 (79.60-50% 84.80/74.45) and 80.00, Tech support 78.80/85

NZD/USD: Offers 0.7825/35 buy stops above

You should be economist using that phrase

Morning PT, thanks for analysis and chart as always.

Today's Euro FX Options Expiries at 14:00 GMT

1.2745
1.2710
1.2600
1.2570
1.2500
1.2430
1.2400

Just like yesterday, the options at 1.2500 are reported as quite large