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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #36,841
  • Edited 5:31pm Jun 13, 2012 5:24pm | Edited 5:31pm
Greetings
80 minute chart.....
I see demand zones ( support) at that stubborn 1.2520 and again at 1.2483 and then my target 1.2446. 170,000 EURUSD each pip worth 17 USD.
As of this writing the loss position is about $1453.00 USD. I have decided to to hold my position albeit a losing one at present. However I will not hold over the weekend as that would violate my rules.

So if

1. You are a seasoned trader with acumen with this pair and
2. If you have been in this position facing a time compression decision in less than20 hours http://www.amazon.com/Time-Compressi...9625869&sr=8-1
I would appreciate your inputs.
I can set and forget or babysit as I have the option for either as I am self employed.

Background:
Age 60
The paper loss represents about .005% of my total capital devoted to trading.
I have been short since 3:00 AM this morning USA time.
There is no issue with margin as account is sufficiently capitalized to withstand 200 pip move upside. Painful and as distastful as that would be.
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Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #36,842
  • Jun 13, 2012 5:45pm Jun 13, 2012 5:45pm
not sure if this was discussed but do you think part of the spike today during NY could have been SNB defending the 1.20 peg on EURCHF (or simply many traders with buys in EURCHF hoping for massive intervention)
  • #36,843
  • Jun 13, 2012 6:31pm Jun 13, 2012 6:31pm
^^ could be that

IMO euro bullishness is QE3 baked into the cake (those who want longs that wouldn't be possible to get if you bought after QE3 was announced)

Once Benny Boy disappoints, bear resumes.

Shorted 2605 believe it or not, with 5x leverage and a 8 pip stop

Happy to finally have got a good short, took some off the table already.

Had a hell of a time scalping that short cover surge this morning, using high leverage, there was times when it just had to pull back
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An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,844
  • Jun 13, 2012 6:52pm Jun 13, 2012 6:52pm
Quoting FXMindset
Or
SHORT
i think , this is the best way
  • #36,845
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:14pm Jun 13, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting Turtle Man
Greetings
80 minute chart.....
I see demand zones ( support) at that stubborn 1.2520 and again at 1.2483 and then my target 1.2446. 170,000 EURUSD each pip worth 17 USD.
As of this writing the loss position is about $1453.00 USD. I have decided to to hold my position albeit a losing one at present. However I will not hold over the weekend as that would violate my rules.

So if

1. You are a seasoned trader with acumen with this pair and
2. If you have been in this position facing a time compression decision in less than20 hours http://www.amazon.com/Time-Compressi...9625869&sr=8-1...
Welcom to the thread Turtle Man, as a rule we do not post out lot size nor our capital for trading. Just entry and exit points and the justification behind our position. Please see page one of this thread for further reading and resources.

I'm sure PipTrapper will be able to fill you in on anymore details of the thread that you need to know.

Bulls or Bears are welcomed here. The overall sentiment for the thread in the intermediate to long term is bullish but there are many intraday scalpers (including me to some extent) who love to scalp 20-30 pips on a corrective move. Nothing wrong with that.

Again, welcome to thread and happy pips!

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #36,846
  • Edited Jun 14, 2012 12:56am Jun 13, 2012 8:20pm | Edited Jun 14, 2012 12:56am
Daily review and current market conditions and trades Im in/looking at

Euro recovered mildly today but is kept in familiar range even with the short covering . At this point, traders seem to be reluctant to bet on either direction ahead of Greece election on Sunday.
Italy is approaching another crisis – Tomorrow will be an important day as Italy tries to sell 4.5bn in fixed rate bonds; if the markets turn their noses up at the offering it could be bad for the euro.




Cable recovered on Wednesday especially versus riskier currencies(namely nzd and EUR) at the time of writing after risk appetite bounced back on the hope that euro-zone leaders could find a solution to the debt crisis.


The coming Greek elections could impact heavily on the yen, as a Grexit would prompt a flight to yen safety and rapid appreciation. it will be worth watching what the BOJ does in anticipation of this possibility



EUR/USD – current 1.2554

Range for Pair is 2460/2502 to 2695 for breakouts
1. Let pair go to 2620/2630 area and reverse – ride down to 2600 range and prepare for 2550 to be retested
2. Let pair go to 1.2620/1.2630 area reverse with Safe Entry: SELL 1.2594 and monitor possible push through support at 2550



3. Safe Entry: If pair does not reach 1.2600 then SELL 1.2564 Im currently in this trade with small .5% risk and a 25 pip SL and if price breaks through 2555/2550 area with a close/momentum Ill be watching for the 2502 area next and ill lock in at BE once it gets down there

GBP/USD – SELL 1.5499 Im watching for the reaction at 5455 support and also watching correlating market for a potential continuation. Targeting massive support at 5271 area.




Thanks for letting me get my thoughts out in this forum guys... bbl for LO
  • #36,847
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:34pm Jun 13, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting neuron
not sure if this was discussed but do you think part of the spike today during NY could have been SNB defending the 1.20 peg on EURCHF (or simply many traders with buys in EURCHF hoping for massive intervention)
In my opinion the spike was just normal trading: After a full day of trying to head lower and failing, the natural next step is for the selling pressure to let up and let the bulls take it to a nice place to sell before the weekend and have another crack at the support.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,848
  • Jun 13, 2012 9:05pm Jun 13, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting Halifax
In my opinion the spike was just normal trading: After a full day of trying to head lower and failing, the natural next step is for the selling pressure to let up and let the bulls take it to a nice place to sell before the weekend and have another crack at the support.
True, a correction was certainly in order

I guess it may have added uptrend just slightly but also had the bulls correcting the plummet which most likely accounted for majority of activity
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  • #36,849
  • Jun 13, 2012 9:58pm Jun 13, 2012 9:58pm
Eep! Apparently this Greek election thing over the weekend is considered sort of a big deal Seriously though, make sure you close out before the weekend unless you are well in green pips.


Due to the extreme volatility some market analysts foresee could result in the coming days, OANDA fxTrade will not accept any trading activity from 6:00 AM EST until approximately 3:00 PM EST, on Sunday, June 17, 2012. OANDA believes the convergence of a major market event during off-market hours represents a potential trading risk and has taken this rare step to protect traders from excessive rate fluctuations.

Please note that during this halt in trading, you can still access your account details but no trading activity will be accepted. For this reason, OANDA strongly recommends that all traders consider minimizing currency exposures prior to the trading halt.

If you do intend to maintain open positions during this period, be aware that OANDA will hold exchange rates steady during the trading halt. However, when trading resumes, rates will immediately adjust to the current market rate and it is possible that the updated rate could result in a margin closeout if the price has moved significantly against your positions. Therefore, it is your responsibility to ensure you have adequate funds in your account to prevent a margin closeout.

OANDA apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause.

For more information, please contact a Customer Service representative.

Best regards,

The OANDA team
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,850
  • Jun 13, 2012 10:09pm Jun 13, 2012 10:09pm
hrm i haven't got that message yet, but one things for sure theres definitely gonna be some covering this friday
  • #36,851
  • Jun 13, 2012 10:25pm Jun 13, 2012 10:25pm
Quoting neuron
hrm i haven't got that message yet, but one things for sure theres definitely gonna be some covering this friday
I'm not with Oanda, I just saw it on Zero Hedge
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,852
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:14pm Jun 13, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting Halifax
I'm not with Oanda, I just saw it on Zero Hedge
That's pretty insane, almost like they are expecting at least a few hundred pip gap...
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,853
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:21pm Jun 13, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
That's pretty insane, almost like they are expecting at least a few hundred pip gap...
Yeah, I've got no idea which way it will go, so I'm definitely not playing. With the polling blackout the last 2 weeks it's hard to say who will be leading the vote.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #36,854
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:22pm Jun 13, 2012 11:22pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
That's pretty insane, almost like they are expecting at least a few hundred pip gap...
Yea, I bet it will be anywhere from 200-300 in either direction. IF, by chance, the Euro opens up over the weekend. I will definitely short again...

But, I will not keep any positions opened over the weekend, I can't gamble with my money. We never know how the market will react to whatever happens in Europe, even though we all know where this currency is headed in the long term.
  • #36,855
  • Edited 11:35pm Jun 13, 2012 11:23pm | Edited 11:35pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
If we go to 1.253/1.250 area and then breaks 1.261. 1.300 is a possibility.
that would mean May didn't happen. just saying why even try to predict price movement that far with so much data and news coming out soon especially? if you are long just take daily pips and try again long the next day, until you no longer see long

maybe you already do trade that way, i know you are a damn good trader, but i just don't see any catalyst for 1.30 and dont know why you would even think of it as a possibliity

i'm actually surprised we aren't tanking right now with how fast Greeces banks are being emptied, you can tell its still bear because of the massive drops we get after we go back up.

all it is are the big players adding shorts at 1.26 area which pushes the price down, and adding longs at the bottom pushing the price up (and gaining profit too i might add) so they can then add even more shorts at higher levels for the big drop if they tried to add all the shorts at once they would move the market too much and get bad fills

if we saw 1.30 without QE3 i would probably quit trading (okay maybe not but that would blow my mind like nothing ever has before), because there is just no reason for it, no amount of technicals matter for that large of a move (except COT report but is that market sentiment not technicals), and with fundies being so much more important at this present moment
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,856
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:25pm Jun 13, 2012 11:25pm
Hey PT,

When you get here, and if you have a chance, could you verify this?

http://rt.com/business/news/greek-dr...rg-trades-769/

Traders around the world have been staring at their Bloomberg screens, hardly believing their eyes. The electronic information platform has been showing details for possible Greek Drachma trading.

The Bloomberg helpdesk described it as "an internal function which is set up to test."

Thanks man!
  • #36,857
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:26pm Jun 13, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yea, I bet it will be anywhere from 200-300 in either direction. IF, by chance, the Euro opens up over the weekend. I will definitely short again...

But, I will not keep any positions opened over the weekend, I can't gamble with my money. We never know how the market will react to whatever happens in Europe, even though we all know where this currency is headed in the long term.
Precisely my thinking as well
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,858
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:28pm Jun 13, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey PT,

When you get here, and if you have a chance, could you verify this?

http://rt.com/business/news/greek-dr...rg-trades-769/

Traders around the world have been staring at their Bloomberg screens, hardly believing their eyes. The electronic information platform has been showing details for possible Greek Drachma trading.

The Bloomberg helpdesk described it as "an internal function which is set up to test."

Thanks man!
Greece leaving euro = bad or good for euro? I honestly have no clue. Even if I knew what was going to happen with Greece, I wouldn't know it's effect on the markets.

Sidelines for sure.
An opportunity lost is not a capital cost.
  • #36,859
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:28pm Jun 13, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting BFSGcapital
Greece leaving euro = bad or good for euro? I honestly have no clue. Even if I knew what was going to happen, I wouldn't know it's affect on the markets.

Sidelines for sure.
Yep me too! I won't start gambling until College Football starts!
  • #36,860
  • Jun 13, 2012 11:33pm Jun 13, 2012 11:33pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey PT,

When you get here, and if you have a chance, could you verify this?

http://rt.com/business/news/greek-dr...rg-trades-769/

Traders around the world have been staring at their Bloomberg screens, hardly believing their eyes. The electronic information platform has been showing details for possible Greek Drachma trading.

The Bloomberg helpdesk described it as "an internal function which is set up to test."

Thanks man!

Spooky! I'm sure it's just a test 'in case' but who knows when a bank holiday will be declared, this weekend scares me a bit.
"Don't Panic..."
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