EUR/CHF | Page 388 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/CHF

Similar Threads

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies

Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Ranging pairs? EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/CAD? 0 replies

Attachments: EUR/CHF
Exit Attachments

EUR/CHF

  • #7,741
  • Jun 13, 2012 6:23am Jun 13, 2012 6:23am
Quoting pipxster

So my advice to SNB for tomorrow

- raise the floor to 1,25 (to address CPI,PPI, earn money, punish the inflow so far)
- introduce capital controls + verbal hint for 1,3 in one year to prevent or reduce further inflow

let me quote alexcee here:

"Jordan, please."
Yes - that's a very good idea for SNB to first punish the current inflow by lifting to 1.25 & then hint 1.3 or a higher lift 'as and when SNB feels needed'. Do the lift in stages and verbally lift it in stages.

This will definitely reduce inflows. And let the whole EU know who is almighty!

& it will also benefit us speculators.
  • #7,742
  • Jun 13, 2012 6:25am Jun 13, 2012 6:25am
It appears as if the SNB has created a severe imbalance of sorts.

This will be THEIR undoing .... the words "not tolerate / utmost determination" have proved to be very expensive on their part.

The longer they keep this 1.20 floor nonsense in place the further they risk loosing face or loosing it any further.

To clarify: the longer they refrain from allowing the CHF to strengthen vis-a-vis the Euro above 1.20 the more they tarnish their reputation... even if only short term.

Ad-infinitum only looks good on mathematical equations but in the finance world it's utter rubbish.

Simply printing their way out of this is not an option... they know it.


If your currently long, I'd exert extreme caution.
If short, watch out for spikes.
  • #7,743
  • Jun 13, 2012 6:42am Jun 13, 2012 6:42am
credits:

Jordan, SNB: at the bottom a bit right (in pale yellow)
Hedge funds, GIPSIS, george doran: on the top in the middle a bit right (in "cap")
Attached Image
  • #7,744
  • Jun 13, 2012 6:56am Jun 13, 2012 6:56am
Maybe nothing will happen tomorrow , just small spike of 10-15 pips. Everyone expect something big ...in forex always happend something not expecting.
  • #7,745
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:17am Jun 13, 2012 7:17am
Quoting Urosh1
Maybe nothing will happen tomorrow , just small spike of 10-15 pips. Everyone expect something big ...in forex always happend something not expecting.
how about a peg raise to 1.25 no one is expecting that too !!
  • #7,746
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:20am Jun 13, 2012 7:20am
Quoting Warwick
It appears as if the SNB has created a severe imbalance of sorts.

This will be THEIR undoing .... the words "not tolerate / utmost determination" have proved to be very expensive on their part.

The longer they keep this 1.20 floor nonsense in place the further they risk loosing face or loosing it any further.

To clarify: the longer they refrain from allowing the CHF to strengthen vis-a-vis the Euro above 1.20 the more they tarnish their reputation... even if only short term.

Ad-infinitum only looks good on mathematical equations but in...
Thats why the Japanese are smarter, why do you think the Japanese dont introduce a peg and just stick with conventional intervention? because it will cost them more at the end!
  • #7,747
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:23am Jun 13, 2012 7:23am
if tomorow the SNB say they will not support the peg any more, are you going to close your long positions? You want a big surprise or?
  • #7,748
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:26am Jun 13, 2012 7:26am
Quoting Fxworld
if tomorow the SNB say they will not support the peg any more, are you going to close your long positions? You want a big surprise or?
If they say that i would guess my positions will be closed for me
  • #7,749
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:28am Jun 13, 2012 7:28am
Quoting pipxster
credits:

Jordan, SNB: at the bottom a bit right (in pale yellow)
Hedge funds, GIPSIS, george doran: on the top in the middle a bit right (in "cap")
Jordan:"Dont tell anyone"
  • #7,750
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:34am Jun 13, 2012 7:34am
Guys.. be patient. Lets wait for the moment. im targeting atleast 70 pips on this like it has happened before.
  • #7,751
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:53am Jun 13, 2012 7:53am
Guys when u think the Spike in EUR CHF will start. ?

3 months ago it started 36 hour before the SNB Report. It was a 90 Pips Spike

Well right now it only left 18 hour until that Report and EUR CHF did not Spiked yet not even 5 pips.

3 Questions:

1- Do u think will have any spike ? If yes how mych pips and when starts ?

2- Do u think in the report they will put the peg in 1.10 ?

3- Do u think they will introduce any new measure like capital controls in the report ?
  • #7,752
  • Jun 13, 2012 7:57am Jun 13, 2012 7:57am
Quoting Luigi111
Guys when u think the Spike in EUR CHF will start. ?

3 months ago it started 36 hour before the SNB Report. It was a 90 Pips Spike

Well right now it only left 18 hour until that Report and EUR CHF did not Spiked yet not even 5 pips.

3 Questions:

1- Do u think will have any spike ? If yes how mych pips and when starts ?

2- Do u think in the report they will put the peg in 1.10 ?

3- Do u think they will introduce any new measure like capital controls in the report ?
1-No
2-No
3-No
  • #7,753
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:04am Jun 13, 2012 8:04am
Quoting brinks
1-No
2-No
3-No
So you expect further swelling until the situation "heals itself"?
Remember Hildi recent article about no time for boring central bankers?
  • #7,754
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:07am Jun 13, 2012 8:07am
Quoting pipxster
So you expect further swellint until the situation "heals itself"?
Remembrr Hildi article about no time for boring central bankers?
They may bring in capital controls but i think they will wait and see.

problem is hildi isnt the boss anymore if he was i think things would be different
  • #7,755
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:13am Jun 13, 2012 8:13am
Quoting brinks
They may bring in capital controls but i think they will wait and see.

problem is hildi isnt the boss anymore if he was i think things would be different
Yah, looks more and more like SNB may want to wait for the Greek election result to take the next big move. They want to save this last card for a rainier day
  • #7,756
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:26am Jun 13, 2012 8:26am
Quoting tim10167
Yah, looks more and more like SNB may want to wait for the Greek election result to take the next big move. They want to save this last card for a rainier day
If they do nothing tommorow its a invite for a floor break.
  • #7,757
  • Jun 13, 2012 8:58am Jun 13, 2012 8:58am
By Jamie Coleman || June 13, 2012 at 13:56 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment
Reuters headline: “SNB chief opposed franc/euro peg in 199 article”.
In an academic article, he wrote a peg would” prompt more speculation and a concomitant rise in capital inflows into Switzerland…”
Smart guy. That’s exactly what has happened…
  • #7,758
  • Jun 13, 2012 9:09am Jun 13, 2012 9:09am
Quoting brinks
By Jamie Coleman || June 13, 2012 at 13:56 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment
Reuters headline: “SNB chief opposed franc/euro peg in 199 article”.
In an academic article, he wrote a peg would” prompt more speculation and a concomitant rise in capital inflows into Switzerland…”
Smart guy. That’s exactly what...
well what else they can do right now ? depeg the chf? it will free fall to 1.0 even below keeping the current Euro situation in mind. and they cant even afford it at 1.2 so for a medium term peg is there to stay unless the Euro zone sorts out their problems which they eventually will just wait for the mighty Germany to wake up
  • #7,759
  • Edited 9:19am Jun 13, 2012 9:09am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting brinks
By Jamie Coleman || June 13, 2012 at 13:56 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment
Reuters headline: “SNB chief opposed franc/euro peg in 199 article”.
In an academic article, he wrote a peg would” prompt more speculation and a concomitant rise in capital inflows into Switzerland…”
Smart guy. That’s exactly what...
Thats why i said the Japanese are smarter.

The only solution for a pegged policy is capital control, which more or less will cause damage to its own economy, and the effect may be short lasting, but again it all depends on the policy mix. Jordan, you were smart, why didnt you advise your boss about this before???Its all too late now...
  • #7,760
  • Jun 13, 2012 9:11am Jun 13, 2012 9:11am
Tomorrow, even if it's a 10pip spike, I'll close 50% of my positions immediately after SNB announcement. (provided they don't announce any surprises).

I'll gamble the other 50% till after Greece. Who knows the Greeks will vote for austerity.
7 traders viewing now