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EUR/CHF

  • #7,621
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:03am Jun 12, 2012 1:03am
Fasten your seatbelts for wild ride...
  • #7,622
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:05am Jun 12, 2012 1:05am
Quoting alexcee
Fasten your seatbelts for wild ride...
Ha Ha do you think?

I'am seriously doubting that there will be any short covering at all
  • #7,623
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:13am Jun 12, 2012 1:13am
Swiss government raises 2012 growth forecast to 1.4% from 0.8%.Robust domestic demand was helping to offset ill effects of the strong franc
  • #7,624
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:15am Jun 12, 2012 1:15am
Quoting tim10167
Swiss government raises 2012 growth forecast to 1.4% from 0.8%.Robust domestic demand was helping to offset ill effects of the strong franc

they also said



Preventing escalation of euro crisis key prerequisite for continued good Swiss momentum.
  • #7,625
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:17am Jun 12, 2012 1:17am
I think that we expect to much of this currency pair.
Many of the largest bank, JP Morgan,Goldman, and other change their view of future move in directions of weaker franc.
So I don't expect 100 pips or higher on 14 june , maybe some spike but very modest.
  • #7,626
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:19am Jun 12, 2012 1:19am
Quoting brinks
source: Goldman Sachs

"On the monetary policy front, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will meet on Thursday. We expect interest rates to remain on hold at 0%. At the end of May, we changed our call on Swiss monetary policy: we now no longer expect the SNB to weaken the CHF against the Euro. At the same time, given the SNB’s commitment to the current peg, we think a re-peg to a lower exchange rate is unlikely." Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research.
If more and more people think SNB wont raise the cap, where do you think the "pop" is going to come from on the rate decision this week?maby nowhere...
  • #7,627
  • Edited 1:49am Jun 12, 2012 1:22am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting tim10167
If more and more people think SNB wont raise the cap, where do you think the "pop" is going to come from on the rate decision this week?

As i have said all along every one knows that the floor wont be raised but they have mentioned other measures and i thought there may be some short covering on that.

I have since changed my mind though and dont think there will be any pop in this pair so i will wait until after the rate decision incase there are any surprises then cut my losses.

But the SNB have been spending billions defending the floor and i'm sure they cant sustain that so they must be planning for something else
  • #7,628
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:48am Jun 12, 2012 1:48am
Quoting brinks
As i have said all along every one knows that the floor wont be raised but they have mentioned other measures and i thought there may be some short covering on that
Yes I am expecting the measures too, but I dont see SNB announce them on Thursday, as no "surprise" effect at all. Hopfully "today". This Friday or next week might be a suitable time too as everthing cools down after the rate decision and hedge funds are all back shorting EURCHF. I dont see SNB delaying this too much longer as they have to buy $7 million a "minute". If by the end of this month we still dont see SNB acting, I will actually be a bit worried and be puzzled what the SNB is thinking?
  • #7,629
  • Jun 12, 2012 1:52am Jun 12, 2012 1:52am
Quoting tim10167
Yes I am expecting the measures too, but I dont see SNB announce them on Thursday, as no "surprise" effect at all. Hopfully "today". This Friday or next week might be a suitable time too as everthing cools down after the rate decision and hedge funds are all back shorting EURCHF. I dont see SNB delaying this too much longer as they have to buy $7 million a "minute". If by the end of this month we still dont see SNB acting, I will actually be a bit worried and be puzzled what the SNB is thinking?
I was expecting something over the weekend to be honest and have been expecting the SNB to do something before the greece vote so they are covered if it all goes wrong
  • #7,630
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:09am Jun 12, 2012 2:09am
Quoting brinks
I was expecting something over the weekend to be honest and have been expecting the SNB to do something before the greece vote so they are covered if it all goes wrong
do you think SNB makes us all waiting like this is because SNB is cooking something???, Setting up a trap for all the hedge funds who are against them to jump in? Afterall SNB is the one who should be most worried, minutes by minutes....
  • #7,631
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:11am Jun 12, 2012 2:11am
Quoting tim10167
do you think SNB makes us all waiting like this is because SNB is cooking something???, Setting up a trap for all the hedge funds who are against them to jump in? Afterall SNB is the one who should be most worried, minutes by minutes....
They must have something planned as you said they are spending billions holding the floor and that isnt sustainable
  • #7,632
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:14am Jun 12, 2012 2:14am
Quoting brinks
They must have something planned as you said they are spending billions holding the floor and that isnt sustainable
If SNB do nothing this week, how much longer will you hold your long position?
  • #7,633
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:15am Jun 12, 2012 2:15am
Quoting tim10167
If SNB do nothing this week, how much longer will you hold your long position?
I will cut half after the monetary meeting and keep the other half till the end of the month.
  • #7,634
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:35am Jun 12, 2012 2:35am
Quoting brinks
I will cut half after the monetary meeting and keep the other half till the end of the month.
Good tactic, I am thinking by the end of this month too as the recent Spanish banking bailout "again" was a failure, German still dosent want to provide a real contribution, If SNB still cant come up with an effective solution these few weeks and just keep printing like no tomorrow, and really start to risk Switzerland's economy, we can basically conclude the people in SNB are irresponsible to their country and are bunch of cowards, then who knows what will happen next......The Euro crisis will get more severe this summer and fall. If SNB's currency reserve is bigger than Switzerland's GDP after a few months more of printing CHF, Iam stying away from this pair.
  • #7,635
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:37am Jun 12, 2012 2:37am
ING:
0728 GMT [Dow Jones] SNB could try URR measures says ING which are unremunerated reserve requirements as a nuclear option if the euro-zone crisis escalates further, borrowing the capital control measures from the emerging markets space. Under the URR, short-term investments are required to be backed by a 30% reserve placed at local banks, of third of which would be forfeited if the investment is withdrawn within a year. "Such measures would be borrowed from the EM space and a last ditch measure from Swiss authorities, whose national business model is built on the free flow of capital," ING says, adding the SNB is unlikely to announce any further measures for now at its rate setting meeting Thursday. EUR/CHF at 1.2010. ([email protected])
  • #7,636
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:38am Jun 12, 2012 2:38am
Quoting tim10167
Good tactic, I am thinking by the end of this month too as the recent Spanish banking bailout "again" was a failure, German still dosent want to provide a real contribution, If SNB still cant come up with an effective solution these few weeks and just keep printing like no tomorrow, and really start to risk Switzerland's economy, we can basically conclude the people in SNB are irresponsible to their country and are bunch of cowards, then who knows what will happen next......The Euro crisis will get more severe this summer and fall. If SNB's currency...
I agree yes

i did read this yesterday on forex live

Comments from the Swiss government on the crisis response said they’re still evaluating options on how to deal with the European crisis. They said the cap is the most important tool to weaken the franc.
No details on what options they are evaluating but I suspect ‘hope’ and ‘prayer’ are the other options after ‘printing obscene amounts of francs to support the peg.’
Nothing happening in EUR/CHF, at 1.2010
  • #7,637
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:52am Jun 12, 2012 2:52am
Quoting brinks
They must have something planned as you said they are spending billions holding the floor and that isnt sustainable
I bet they know that retail traders can't wait any longer. We're running out of patience. Jordan let the cat out of the bag.
  • #7,638
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:53am Jun 12, 2012 2:53am
Quoting brinks
I agree yes

i did read this yesterday on forex live

Comments from the Swiss government on the crisis response said they’re still evaluating options on how to deal with the European crisis. They said the cap is the most important tool to weaken the franc.
No details on what options they are evaluating but I suspect ‘hope’ and ‘prayer’ are the other options after ‘printing obscene amounts of francs to support the peg.’
Nothing happening in EUR/CHF, at 1.2010
With ING's URR comments I just posted before, what do you think the market reaction will be? sudden spike and then come down or gradual upward in a few days or weeks? Can anyone contribute some information about the affect right after a central bank impose an inflow restriction policy?Thanks!!!
  • #7,639
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:57am Jun 12, 2012 2:57am
Quoting tim10167
With ING's URR comments I just posted before, what do you think the market reaction will be? sudden spike and then come down or gradual upward in a few days or weeks? Can anyone contribute some information about the affect right after a central bank impose an inflow restriction policy?Thanks!!!
I dont know having never experienced it but would expect a spike up on any announcement
  • #7,640
  • Jun 12, 2012 3:12am Jun 12, 2012 3:12am
Quoting alexcee
I bet they know that retail traders can't wait any longer. We're running out of patience. Jordan let the cat out of the bag.
I think a lot of retail longs will close their position if nothing happens this week. But this is not my point, Iam welling to wait for another six months if I have to, my point is letting that fat cat out of the bag to scare the reatil longs away is costing SNB $7 million/minute, how long can SNB afford before they risk Swiss economy into trouble? Act quicker will actually cost the Swiss economy lesser damage. I see they act in these few weeks unless SNB is insane, if SNB is insane and just print print and print..... you know what the inflation figures is going to be like in the future? BIGGGGGG
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