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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #35,381
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:36am Jun 10, 2012 3:36am
Quoting FXe
http://www.oanda.com/currency/real-time-rates
Thanks FXe!
  • #35,382
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:03am Jun 10, 2012 5:03am
Quoting forextraderx
PT, if you care to interject your rare short term outlook on the E/U in particular, i'd be really curious to hear what your thoughts are... always good to learn what profitable traders think of things...

X
I've already made my short term view quite clear... Perhaps you missed it. Here it is -->

Quoting PipTrapper
To all who are still tuned in and to those who will take the time to scroll back this far on or after the weekend.
Quoting PipTrapper
Being a Friday before two risk events (China data and alleged Spain aid request), it is quite expected to be getting a short covering rally. I didn't really expect that much of a short covering, although in my devil's advocate post I did mention a possible rebound to as high as 1.2525 before close.
Quoting PipTrapper
Anyway, this caution is in regards to the market talk and hopium surrounding the possibility of Spain seeking aid to conduct a bank bailout.

Now that we have had a strong short covering based on the mentioned market talk, an aid request from Spain is now at least partially baked in to the price.

This means that if there is no such request over the weekend, that baked in hopium has to unwind which will undoubtedly send the Euro crashing back to or even below today's (Friday) lows.

So, there's your heads up.
Quoting PipTrapper
Now, if Spain does in fact request aid to conduct a bank bailout (which I doubt), I would expect that the markets will rally and there will be more short coverings on the Euro. However, that will not last. As soon as the focus turns back to all the other underlying problems, the sellers will jump right back in again. That process could take as long as 48 hours (The market tends to have a thick head at times). So, at the latest, I call a sell-off by Wednesday.
Quoting PipTrapper
I could be wrong but it is certainly something to keep in mind in case you're thinking "This is it... buy buy buy". Instead you should be thinking "Buy the rumor, Sell the news"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #35,383
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:20am Jun 10, 2012 5:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
I've already made my short term view quite clear... Perhaps you missed it. Here it is -->
well g i feel silly. dead on. I feel about 98% the same as you.

man, and i thought my take on stuff was "special". and here i come to find out i'm just joining in on the party you announced yesterday

lol

great thoughts... good to see another net profitable trader feels similiar to me.

at least that way we can both bitch and moan together when this just tanks 300 pips tomorrow.

X
  • #35,384
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:03am Jun 10, 2012 6:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
I've already made my short term view quite clear... Perhaps you missed it. Here it is -->
mmm.. nice! So simple and easy
You can forget all the time spent at bloombergs and zerohedges This thread is where the true market wrap-up's happens
69
  • #35,385
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:32am Jun 10, 2012 6:32am
Spain asked for help, so we will see more short covering right?
  • #35,386
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:44am Jun 10, 2012 6:44am
I am a tad little perplexed in regards to the Spain bank bailout. It would appear that the markets are pricing this in and at the same time if one were to look closely, there appears to be a new bigger h&s forming.

Taking the double tops into consideration and the solid resistance of 1.262, I see a good possibility that the Spanish relief is just a means to calm markets down before the Greek storm arrives once again at Europe's doorstep.

Also taking into account that this is a major downtrend we are in and it would appear that the current rally is nigh on overbought levels - I am think I would rather be shorting this pair at the next fib level and possible top of the right shoulder at around 1.254.

However, above these levels we may retest the double top of last week and possibly a leg higher. European crisis is just a pile of manure - it reeks, nobody wants it on their hands but sooner or later when the crops fail, you just gotta fertilize the field.
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  • #35,387
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:44am Jun 10, 2012 6:44am
Quoting Evanescence
Spain asked for help, so we will see more short covering right?
RISK ON, M-FERS!! For now, anyways. Yes, combine with the hopium data about china/usa export/import data...how it beats expectation...how fantastic everything is...how this...how that. 100 billion euros is a hefty amount. Given without restrictions.... yes, i will be surprised if the indexes and eur-based currencies didnt rally.....of course....until later in the week when we start anticipating the greek election results......fracking roller-coaster, this shite is.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,388
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:49am Jun 10, 2012 6:49am
Quoting Skynet
RISK ON, M-FERS!! For now, anyways. Yes, combine with the hopium data about china/usa export/import data...how it beats expectation...how fantastic everything is...how this...how that. 100 billion euros is a hefty amount. Given without restrictions.... yes, i will be surprised if the indexes and eur-based currencies didnt rally.....of course....until later in the week when we start anticipating the greek election results......fracking roller-coaster, this shite is.
I know...and me without my straddle.

X
  • #35,389
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:54am Jun 10, 2012 6:54am
Quoting Unknownpips
I am a tad little perplexed in regards to the Spain bank bailout. It would appear that the markets are pricing this in and at the same time if one were to look closely, there appears to be a new bigger h&s forming.

Taking the double tops into consideration and the solid resistance of 1.262, I see a good possibility that the Spanish relief is just a means to calm markets down before the Greek storm arrives once again at Europe's doorstep.

Also taking into account that this is a major downtrend we are in and it would appear that the current rally...
Sorry, my dude, i dont think a 100 pips move up from 1.2430 is pricing in 100 billion euros for spain. Under normal condition, a 100 pips move is the average daily range of the EUR/USD.....i also doubt that hopium cares about fib levels.....yes, the 1.2630 area is a solid resistance level....will it hold? Well, it has been tested one time....the more a level gets tested, the less likely for it to hold....albeit, this one has only been tested ONCE....and on top of that, 1.2630 is weekly resistance level:which had a lot of weight to it...the next weekly resistance level is 1.2938 area.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,390
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:55am Jun 10, 2012 6:55am
Quoting Unknownpips
I am a tad little perplexed in regards to the Spain bank bailout. It would appear that the markets are pricing this in and at the same time if one were to look closely, there appears to be a new bigger h&s forming.

Taking the double tops into consideration and the solid resistance of 1.262, I see a good possibility that the Spanish relief is just a means to calm markets down before the Greek storm arrives once again at Europe's doorstep.

Also taking into account that this is a major downtrend we are in and it would appear that the current rally...
I like to sell head and shoulder breaks after 1000+ pip rallies up. almost every single time in fact.

After 1000+ pip drops, I don't care if the head and shoulders leans out of my computer screen, lifts an arm and smacks me across the face, and screams "SELL ME DUMB$HIT!"... i'm probably not gonna listen.

Ya, i'll miss some profitable shorting opportunities... but at least I won't feel like I was the guy who shorted gold in 2002 because "dude, this stuff just isn't worth crap anymore"

X
  • #35,391
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:59am Jun 10, 2012 6:59am
Quoting forextraderx
haha... ya... it's the indicator of simply observing bad news come out, but noticing a market fails to sell off in response to such bad news. Better still if this occurs after a long drop in price, and even better if the market actually moves up with such bad news coming out.

It's kinda interesting, when I say "indicator", many think "colorful twisty line somewhere on my chart"

I mean indicator as in, ohh...say...the "your house is burning down indicator"

Like, you drive towards your neighborhood, you notice black smoke rising from it,...
X I kinda understand where you're coming from with the observation of the environment 'indicator'. What would be interesting is to see if there is any correlation between the number of positive vs. negative stories and how the market reacts; short term.

I think that another factor that you haven't taken into consideration is this: What type of trader are you - fundamental or chartist?

I am of the belief that fundamental analysis influences future long-term price movements or more precisely 'foreshadows' what is about to come. I'm a big proponent of buy the rumor and sell the facts guy.

I am also of the belief that the charts, most importantly daily and weekly give me a gauge of the market's overall direction and sentiment. I relie mainly on the 8-hour charts for zeroing in on expect price movements and to provide me with entry/exit points which then I further refine with hourly charts. But then again I consider myself a swing trader because I usually get into a position for 2-7 days or longer.

I think a lot of what goes into people's trading HAS to be their time frame. I had an acquentance who used to trade the $OEX using 5 min charts so for him getting in and out was a nothing whereas I would get in and stay in for days at a time. In a trending market I always outperformed him but in weeks last last week on the EUR/USD I didn't do very well. I had 2 trades last week one positive and one negative and I'm hold short positions now.

Another factor to consider is justification. Too many times I've noticed that people in a losing position find many, many things, especially in fundamental releases to justify WHY the market is going to turn and their account will go from red pips to green when in reality it's nothing more than hopium.
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #35,392
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:08am Jun 10, 2012 7:08am
Quoting forextraderx
well g i feel silly. dead on. I feel about 98% the same as you.

man, and i thought my take on stuff was "special". and here i come to find out i'm just joining in on the party you announced yesterday

lol

X
I'm slightly confused X, are you bullish, like you wrote in your article, or bearish like PT?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #35,393
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:12am Jun 10, 2012 7:12am
Really? I am shocked! shocked, i tell you! You mean to tell me that you dont go long or short the EUR because it has reach a technical yada with MA's tapdancing/crossover, along a Fibo extensions mixed with farrari's and mazaratis on an upside down flipped around shennanigans with a side of stochastics? No?

I am disappointed in you!

Hahahahaha.

Quoting forextraderx
.......
It's kinda interesting, when I say "indicator", many think "colorful twisty line somewhere on my chart"......For the life of me, i still don't know what those colorful curvy lines have anything to do with "indicators of market movement"

But they are decorative, if nothing else

X

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/quote.gif

" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,394
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:19am Jun 10, 2012 7:19am
Quoting fxsport
X I kinda understand where you're coming from with the observation of the environment 'indicator'. What would be interesting is to see if there is any correlation between the number of positive vs. negative stories and how the market reacts; short term.

I think that another factor that you haven't taken into consideration is this: What type of trader are you - fundamental or chartist?

I am of the belief that fundamental analysis influences future long-term price movements or more precisely 'foreshadows' what is about to come. I'm a big proponent...
ahh, a well considered response, thank you.

and more than i'm gonna address right now, but with regard to pos/neg news events and market reaction.... I find it's more a matter of determining what the market is primarily focused on, and using this to help support trading decisions arrived at via technical analysis, and maybe within the overall bias of supporting fundamentals.

The market is like a sorta drunk horny rich guy at an exclusive, ultra popular night club.

There are bound to be plenty of hot chicks around... and yet, odds are he is really just looking at any one girl at a time.

of course, he could change and look at a DIFFERENT girl in a few minutes, but right now...it's "that girl".

so, if you want his attention...figure out which girl he is looking at...or take some educated guesses as to what his "type" is... and then get between his gaze and that girl.

as he moves his eyes, you move your feet.

eventually, you get his attention, give him your pitch, and get the funding. whatever.

Personally, I try to determine what fundi players are looking at, sentiment players are looking at, AND techies..... and then look for markets and opportunities where all these paradigms overlap in one directional bias.

Those trades...heh...those are easy.

I'm kinda like a cheap hooker that way. loyal to no method, willing to take whatever is paying the best, and when the ride is done, I don't waste time trying to form a "relationship" with it... i'm just looking for the next "John"

and I totally agree on justification. that's why everything I do is based on some technical entry point, with a stop that is usually between 20-45 pips.

as for time frame, I look at all of them. funny thing is, when the daily looks about to break a level, and the 4 hour does too, as does the 1 hr, and the 30 min, and the 15, the 5, and the 1 min... all look independently about to break the same level... guess what?

that level nearly always breaks.

Confluence, correlation, incorporating a variety of view points to find the strongest overlap of long or short bias... and with no loyalty to any of it... my loyalty is to the process of finding the best tool for the job TODAY... and tomorrow, i'll do that all over again.

that's how I play anyway... i like the results over all, and i like the work too.

others play differently, and make it work. I just like to really feel confident with my trading i suppose.

X
  • #35,395
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:21am Jun 10, 2012 7:21am
Quoting fxsport
I'm slightly confused X, are you bullish, like you wrote in your article, or bearish like PT?
well, i have a slightly bullish bias, but if you read closely, he spells out specific conditions under which he would expect a short squeeze, or not, and how they might play out.

with all that there... i totally agree.

as well as with a long term view of a bear continuation.

I see this as a corrective retracement, but by no means a reversal.

so him and I agree there too.

X
  • #35,396
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:22am Jun 10, 2012 7:22am
Quoting forextraderx
Ya know, I'm not sure if I necessarily agree with this. At least, anymore than to say that's ALWAYS the case... but, every other point would have, IMO been wrong (and of course a chart says that was how it worked out)

I don't think the driver here is greed...as much as it is FEAR.... a fear of loss... a LOT of paper profit shorts now... probably too many IMO.

greed is a nice driver of a bulll move IMO, but i'll take FEAR over greed as a driver up any day.

Bull markets...
for me most important thing is the time frame ur looking at,becos it is the time frame which will define ur risk and leverage one use and hence ur greed or fear one experience.so if one talk to different time framer like one min and one hour they both will have differnet emotion at the same time so its a tricky issue and one difficult to get hold off.the subjectiveness ur talking about is arising from the time frame ur focussing on.u see its wheel within wheels and waves within waves and when one removes the time frame what one is looking at is big ocean which looks calm and carrying big stoms at the same time.one should take care while selecting traders for gauging emotions should all be reading the same page since its no use if one select differnet time framer becos that will makes one job difficult.i think it is very very imortant to keep ones poise in once time frame and then the real job start of gauging different time frame emotion and its a hard job becos of the time element say one is looking at 1 min time framer, his range of emotion might 6 times in an hour but if u look at 1 hour time framer his emtion will take longer time to change.so dificulty here is oneself than the ocean. take care
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #35,397
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:26am Jun 10, 2012 7:26am
i don't know, man; i use higher time frames for setup and to watch for potentially interfering s/r levels...i use lower time frames for entry. that makes sense to me. if there is a battle between LTF and HTF...i will respect the HTF....the best scenario is when LTF and HTF are both aligned.

And to fxsport--that fundamentals can be use to rationalize...that is quite true...technicals can be used to rationalize too....heck, the moon cycles can be used to rationalize.




Quoting drzakir123
for me most important thing is the time frame ur looking at,becos it is the time frame which will define ur risk and leverage one use and hence ur greed or fear one experience.so if one talk to different time framer like one min and one hour they both will have differnet emotion at the same time so its a tricky issue and one difficult to get hold off.the subjectiveness ur talking about is arising from the time frame ur focussing on.u see its wheel within wheels and waves within waves and when one removes the time frame what one is looking at is...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #35,398
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:32am Jun 10, 2012 7:32am
Quoting forextraderx
well, i have a slightly bullish bias, but if you read closely, he spells out specific conditions under which he would expect a short squeeze, or not, and how they might play out.

with all that there... i totally agree.

as well as with a long term view of a bear continuation.

I see this as a corrective retracement, but by no means a reversal.

so him and I agree there too.

X
I guess he's where I get hung up in semantics because in my thought process a short squeeze (which BTW I agree may occur) is not a 'bullish' event but rather a corrective event in a bearish market.

I also prefer the terms of bullish/bearish to describe market trends - long term; corrections need not apply.

But then again that's just me and my .25 (.02 cents adjusted for inflation)
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #35,399
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:32am Jun 10, 2012 7:32am
Quoting drzakir123
for me most important thing is the time frame ur looking at,becos it is the time frame which will define ur risk and leverage one use and hence ur greed or fear one experience.so if one talk to different time framer like one min and one hour they both will have differnet emotion at the same time so its a tricky issue and one difficult to get hold off.the subjectiveness ur talking about is arising from the time frame ur focussing on.u see its wheel within wheels and waves within waves and when one removes the time frame what one is looking at is...
Na Dr... I almost couldn't disagree more.

a market that has sold off 1000 pips in 5 - 6 weeks has sold off 1000 pips in 5 -6 weeks. period. look at it on any chart, 1 minute, 1 week...it's gonna show that.

and the amount of "market moving" traders who operate as you describe above are almost non-existent. banks and hedge funds usually arn't scalping the 15 min charts.... and they arn't changing the way they feel about a trade based on that last 5 min candle... at least this will hold true ALMOST every time.

Furthermore, the amount of bad news and big problems with the euro are no secret and no surprise... yet in spite of all this, the eur/usd closed up over 100 pips from the open on sunday/monday, to the close on friday last week.

again, check any TF you want. that's how it played out. it looks the same on a 1 min chart, as a 1 week chart. 110 pips in 5 trading days is 110 pips in 5 trading days.

and that indicates, to me... the fear is overdone... and the market is ready and willing to move up should any little excuse to do some come out.

if candle formations on different time frames are the driving factor behind ones fear/greed in the marketplace...I would venture to speculate that one is not a very profitable trader. I know there are exceptions to this of course... but, well... i think your seeing it as something much more important than it is in reality.

X
  • #35,400
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:35am Jun 10, 2012 7:35am
Quoting Skynet
i don't know, man; i use higher time frames for setup and to watch for potentially interfering s/r levels...i use lower time frames for entry. that makes sense to me. if there is a battle between LTF and HTF...i will respect the HTF....the best scenario is when LTF and HTF are both aligned.

And to fxsport--that fundamentals can be use to rationalize...that is quite true...technicals can be used to rationalize too....heck, the moon cycles can be used to rationalize.

One time, I rationalized a holding a crap position because I told myself (through sobs and tears)... but, but...it was just there like, 15 minutes ago!! I don't get it! how could it be worth SO MUCH LESS in just 15minutes! I don't beleive it. it's worth more. I'll hold until tomorrow.

I think that was like...gee...my, 2nd margin call? i don't remember. those days are all pretty much a blur now.

man. I used to just really really suck at trading.

X
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