DislikedOne thing about your article that I found interesting was this - when asked who was short everyone said they were:
I don't believe that for a second in a large group setting people lie because they don't want to seen as not being part of the group. There have been great experiments about this. Therefore I take what strangers say with a grain of salt and I take what I read on the net with a full shaker of salt!Ignored
but, in fact, you may be right! maybe it was a group setting! in which case, I would discount it more.
However, as i mentioned to someone else earlier... don't go by that... just take a look around forex factory here...
you know some of the good traders i'm sure... not everyone is a jackass, and i'm pretty sure you could, if you wanted, find a dozen or so who you feel are more often correct than not, and probably actually are net profitable traders.
Look at that group you build yourself, and see how many are saying "i'm long risk.... i'm long eur/usd, i'm long eur/jpy....etc"
don't point out idiots or noobs (as we know they never count, they don't know enough to have valid opinions)... and you'll have to ignore the permabulls and permabears (usually idiots or noobs anyway)
and consider time frames and targets. if a really rockstar trader here is long... but is long from 2450, and is targeting 2530, with a stop at 2500...well, he's not really very bullish. heck, a dozen pips up and he hits target... and then he is no longer willing to be long. So, that wouldn't count either.
but, find guys who are experienced, and in your best understanding, are probably profitable as far as you can tell... and have an overall bullish bias coming into this week that we could see some highs above last week.
maybe they are long holding to 2650. that's valid. mabye they are looking to get long on market open...and think 100 pips should be easy...that's valid too.
or, even a guy who has been very bearish the whole time, and suddenly his posts are somthing like "well, closing out my last short at market open. just don't feel that confident either way"... this would also merit consideration.
and then, after you do this, decide for yourself how many traders you believe are probably net profitable traders, actually have a bullish bias on the euro right now.
I know of one. maybe two...maybe, if i count myself.
I know of at least 10 who don't feel this way, but who are good traders that I know or believe make money over all.
I think you will find the point I made still stands, even if the example I choose to validate it with is weak (which, it is.)
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