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EUR/CHF

  • #7,521
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:23pm Jun 8, 2012 9:23pm
Just a question - how much did SNB spent in Sep 2011 when they peg CHF to 1.20?
I guess not much.
They just mentioned they "cannot tolerate anything below 1.20" & the pair jumped in <1 hr to 1.20.

But they did spend a lot defending the peg.

Unlike BoJ, they spent a lot to weaken the yen. Direct monetary intervention.

So now (if I'm correct above), SNB can just use verbal intervention to raise the peg.

or just use a verbal scare tactic like "SNB may consider raising the peg to 1._____". A named figure in a press conference will definitely spook speculators to automatically buy & long eurchf and weaken chf automatically. Just say it, don't do it yet.
  • #7,522
  • Edited 10:20pm Jun 8, 2012 10:01pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting alaneth
Just a question - how much did SNB spent in Sep 2011 when they peg CHF to 1.20?
I guess not much.
They just mentioned they "cannot tolerate anything below 1.20" & the pair jumped in <1 hr to 1.20.

But they did spend a lot defending the peg.

Unlike BoJ, they spent a lot to weaken the yen. Direct monetary intervention.

So now (if I'm correct above), SNB can just use verbal intervention to raise the peg.

or just use a verbal scare tactic like "SNB may consider raising the peg to 1._____". A named figure in a press conference will...
They did not spent much during the setting up 1.20 peg process, and after that they even had a a few months of honymoon time able to offload some EUR all because the market thought 1.20 was only the first stage, SNB will rise the cap to 1.25 or 1.30 eventually, it was quite successful, but the problem this time is completely different, everyone knows SNB's target is not 1.30 or 1.40 anymore, if SNB raise the cap up to 1.25, no one would buy anymore beyond 1.25 like they did in 1.20, instead, everyone will offload their EUR to SNB, and SNB knows that, thats why I think SNB did not manage the peg very well. So, if SNB wants to raise the cap to 1.25, it will cost them more this time, and after the cap is in 1.25, SNB will have a very very hard time offloading their EUR compare to last time. At this point, I see policy intervention most likely instead of raising cap.
  • #7,523
  • Jun 8, 2012 11:03pm Jun 8, 2012 11:03pm
good paper: http://www.brookings.edu/research/op...currency-klein
  • #7,524
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:36am Jun 9, 2012 1:36am
Quoting alaneth
So now (if I'm correct above), SNB can just use verbal intervention to raise the peg.
No. The days of verbal intervention are over for the SNB. Nobody listens to what they have to say anymore. That's why the hedge funds are piling on the shorts at 1.20 - there is no downside risk. Recent comments by Jordan stating that they can't just manipulate their currency - can't do this, can't do that - makes him and the SNB look very weak.

The SNB should grow a pair and realise that IT (on behalf of the Swiss people) OWNS the CHF. THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT WITH IT. Stop worrying what others will think. Everyone else is manipulating. Join in.

If the SNB wants to shake the tree of speculators they should drive EURCHF up to 1.21, drive it back down to 1.205, back up to 1.215, back down to 1.203, back up to 1.21, up again to 1.22, back down to 1.205, back up to 1.22 back down to 1.209, back up to 1.212, up again to 1.218 and back down to 1.201 all in the space of 5 minutes. Of course, denying any knowledge of what just happened.

After that, I guarantee the hedge funds will never touch the EURCHF ever again.
  • #7,525
  • Jun 9, 2012 1:44am Jun 9, 2012 1:44am
When we speak about capital controls or interest rate taxes for foreigners we always have a look back to Brazil.
And as a remark a lot of you mentioned that the experiment hasn't worked well!!!

Please don't forget: In EUR/CHF we alreaday have a minimum level at 1.20 which is defended well by SNB!

I understand that there will maybe still some kind of real money inflow into the safe haven but all the speculators will grilled.

If you go short at 1.2010 and the swap will be around 1-2 pip against you .... and SNB is defending the peg.... how long will you pursue that strategy?
  • #7,526
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:49am Jun 9, 2012 4:49am
Quoting Fizzerr
No. The days of verbal intervention are over for the SNB. Nobody listens to what they have to say anymore. That's why the hedge funds are piling on the shorts at 1.20 - there is no downside risk. Recent comments by Jordan stating that they can't just manipulate their currency - can't do this, can't do that - makes him and the SNB look very weak.

The SNB should grow a pair and realise that IT (on behalf of the Swiss people) OWNS the CHF. THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT WITH IT. Stop worrying what others will think. Everyone else is manipulating. Join...
WOW!!!, yes!!! what your saying is truly one of the quality way to maintain the floor!!!SNB's strategy for the past two months was a joke, now look at how they suffer...
  • #7,527
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:55am Jun 9, 2012 4:55am
can anyone translate this please?: http://www.batz.ch/2012/06/euro-1-20-warnung/

someone is saying SNB is going to lift the peg to $1.22 ?????
  • #7,528
  • Jun 9, 2012 4:57am Jun 9, 2012 4:57am
Quoting tim10167
WOW!!!, yes!!! what your saying is truly one of the quality way to maintain the floor!!!SNB's strategy for the past two months was a joke, now look at how they suffer...
SNB can copy China - fix a peg with an allowed small trading band of a few pips only. No ups & no downs. Use laws & legislations to fix it. They can truly control the franc this way. They can adjust as & when they like to whatever level they choose.

But when SNB does it, we are all toast! but a sure way to shake off all traders of EURCHF.
  • #7,529
  • Edited 5:43am Jun 9, 2012 5:33am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting tim10167
can anyone translate this please?: http://www.batz.ch/2012/06/euro-1-20-warnung/

someone is saying SNB is going to lift the peg to $1.22 ?????
Totally put themselves in a passive position, with offloading hint looks like no upmove risk for short sellers. If they raise to 1,22 with a verbal hint(it will be credible after) to 1,25 then there will be a lot of new long warriors. Wrothe this appr. 2 months ago.

COME ON JORDAN READ THIS THREAD EACH DAY TO AVOID 7M/minute SWELLING

  • #7,530
  • Jun 9, 2012 5:47am Jun 9, 2012 5:47am
Quoting cipid2012
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/20...#ixzz1xCyXr2v7

SNB Intervention average : 7 mil USD/min during each day of May... ...whhhoooaaaa..too much...at least they are credible...
..everybody sell , just sell.. we broken support!!!!
(:
  • #7,531
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:26am Jun 9, 2012 6:26am
Quoting tim10167
can anyone translate this please?: http://www.batz.ch/2012/06/euro-1-20-warnung/

someone is saying SNB is going to lift the peg to $1.22 ?????
Translation (use Google Chrome it will translate for you automatically):

Today, the SNB has in the press already reported, the latest figures published on its foreign exchange reserves (see below). These show that the SNB had to defend the lower limit for the rate of 1.20 EURO CHF in recent weeks. In the press, much of the risk to the SNB's speech. It is forgotten that the attackers also received high risks. Hedge funds speculating on a revaluation of the currency and debt in this "risk" in € (assuming the risk of appreciation against the Swiss franc is zero). If it but then once in the other direction is - then the losses enormous. In contrast to the SNB, however, hedge funds do not have any long puff. Perhaps the SNB once tried a surprise attack, and is studying for a short time on the € 1:22? Hedge Funds: I warned you (postal check account on request)!

Currency reserves of the SNB (according to IMF data dissemination standards, month ends in million CHF) : ........
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #7,532
  • Jun 9, 2012 7:06am Jun 9, 2012 7:06am
Quoting goshko147
..everybody sell , just sell.. we broken support!!!!
(:
..this is the best strategy!!
  • #7,533
  • Jun 9, 2012 9:33am Jun 9, 2012 9:33am
Quoting goshko147
..this is the best strategy!!
what broken support?
  • #7,534
  • Jun 9, 2012 5:26pm Jun 9, 2012 5:26pm
I'll become a rich dude the day we hit 1.2500 All my assets are on this trade. Risky I know, but take the risk and join the millionaires. I can't wait. Jordan please.
  • #7,535
  • Jun 9, 2012 5:53pm Jun 9, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting alexcee
I'll become a rich dude the day we hit 1.2500 All my assets are on this trade. Risky I know, but take the risk and join the millionaires. I can't wait. Jordan please.
Could we know how much crazy you are? Which is your € exposition in this position?

And in which broker... I would like to make withdrawals if finally goes up after reopening a position!
  • #7,536
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:19am Jun 10, 2012 12:19am
try to use fx option for backup if the peg go broken you dont lose
  • #7,537
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:51am Jun 10, 2012 12:51am
I think we'll have a gap this weekend.
  • #7,538
  • Jun 10, 2012 12:54am Jun 10, 2012 12:54am
Quoting rcrist
I think we'll have a gap this weekend.
I take it you mean a gap up?

what makes you think that the Spanish bailout?
  • #7,539
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:57am Jun 10, 2012 8:57am
Quoting qatar
Could we know how much crazy you are? Which is your € exposition in this position?

And in which broker... I would like to make withdrawals if finally goes up after reopening a position!
I assume if we make it big & get rich overnight due to excess leverage, most brokers have no problem withdrawing, right? Any potential possible problems with any brokers? Because I can't wait for Thu pre-SNB or possibly an unexpected lift of peg.
  • #7,540
  • Jun 10, 2012 8:59am Jun 10, 2012 8:59am
Quoting rcrist
I think we'll have a gap this weekend.
I also think there will be a gap on Mon. But not that big for EURCHF - Spain's €100 bailout by EU is not really good news for EUR. At least it will slow down Spanish cash flow into Swiss.

And I think this gap will not fall back to 1.2010 levels, but will continue uptrend or stabilize until Thu SNB.
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