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AUD/USD

  • #46,621
  • Jun 8, 2012 12:30am Jun 8, 2012 12:30am
Hey all... wanted to post a link to some analysis I did tonight. Although it's for more than just AUD, the AUD/USD is covered with specific levels i'm looking at for the euro and US sessions.

here's a link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post5739746

Feel free to comment here, or pull quotes and comment here.

X
  • #46,622
  • Jun 8, 2012 12:33am Jun 8, 2012 12:33am
Quoting Zac
Interesting read, thanks for that.
Looking at the 15 min charts I can see stop hunting may have occured at other levels, but given my stop was only breached by a few pips it wasnt the case with my stop.
I hear that forex futures aren't as bad with the spikes stopping you out, but I don't personally know, because I have never traded them.
Shapeshift greed and catch em' off guard
  • #46,623
  • Jun 8, 2012 12:41am Jun 8, 2012 12:41am
0.9800 on eyes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46,624
  • Jun 8, 2012 1:13am Jun 8, 2012 1:13am
i'm looking around 9910+ to short, but really prefer the 9953-9961 as being idea... or possibly even parity again.... anyone else feel the same?

all levels are short entry possibilties...

X
  • #46,625
  • Jun 8, 2012 3:15am Jun 8, 2012 3:15am
I've been noticing a very strange pattern occurring recently....every time I place a trade on regardless if its a buy or a sell and then go to the toilet, I come back to find my trade at least 20pips in the red??

Has anyone else experienced this strange occurrence??
  • #46,626
  • Jun 8, 2012 3:25am Jun 8, 2012 3:25am
Quoting Daytrader74
I've been noticing a very strange pattern occurring recently....every time I place a trade on regardless if its a buy or a sell and then go to the toilet, I come back to find my trade at least 20pips in the red??

Has anyone else experienced this strange occurrence??
Not since I've started wearing nappys Monday to Friday.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #46,627
  • Jun 8, 2012 3:27am Jun 8, 2012 3:27am
Quoting Daytrader74
I've been noticing a very strange pattern occurring recently....every time I place a trade on regardless if its a buy or a sell and then go to the toilet, I come back to find my trade at least 20pips in the red??

Has anyone else experienced this strange occurrence??
Easy, just stop going to the toilet (or bring your toilet to your desk). Way easier than my situation which is every time i blink my eyes my trade goes 20 pips into the red.

Last few hours have been pretty choppy, I broke even for the week on my last trade so I will leave it at that possibly until Monday. Had to have balls of steel holding my short through several 10 pip spikes against me. Goodluck guys.
  • #46,628
  • Jun 8, 2012 3:31am Jun 8, 2012 3:31am
Well, it may not get here today, and i won't go long regardless, but if I was going to get long, I'd look around 9760-9770 today...

X
  • #46,629
  • Jun 8, 2012 3:31am Jun 8, 2012 3:31am
Also: doesn't seem to be much in the way of 9795 which is the 50% fib line of the June upswing.
  • #46,630
  • Jun 8, 2012 4:09am Jun 8, 2012 4:09am
Quoting bogus
Not since I've started wearing nappys Monday to Friday.
  • #46,631
  • Jun 8, 2012 5:51am Jun 8, 2012 5:51am
Quoting forextraderx
I think some of it's been priced in, but there will of course be a "surprise" element as skeptics and optimists alike realize they are wrong... whatever the result ends up being.


I do know this... I'm not too concerned with whether they cut rates or not. However, if they cut rates, but the market starts to move up past todays highs and closes up there.... I'll look to get a longer term, somewhat large long position in the AUD.

and of course if they don't cut rates, and the market sells off strongly... I'll see this as a sign that we are on...

Hey Bergen...not sure if your seeing this post, but wanted to know if you noticed how the aud/usd closed up 0.1% on the day of the rate decrease of 25 basis points. When a negative event of this magnitude comes out, but the market closes up, it's pretty smart to get long.

From the close of that day, we rallied up about 250 pips to parity without any significant pullback. Just something to keep in mind for the future as well...with this market, and all others.

X
  • #46,632
  • Jun 8, 2012 6:10am Jun 8, 2012 6:10am
The Aud is like a PUTA
  • #46,633
  • Jun 8, 2012 6:24am Jun 8, 2012 6:24am
Forex psychology lesson #1: Do not fall into the trap that the trend will continue forever.
  • #46,634
  • Jun 8, 2012 6:32am Jun 8, 2012 6:32am
Quoting forextraderx
Hey Bergen...not sure if your seeing this post, but wanted to know if you noticed how the aud/usd closed up 0.1% on the day of the rate decrease of 25 basis points. When a negative event of this magnitude comes out, but the market closes up, it's pretty smart to get long.

From the close of that day, we rallied up about 250 pips to parity without any significant pullback. Just something to keep in mind for the future as well...with this market, and all others.

X
If Aussie breaks 0.9850, it would be a bullish EW pattern on M5 Chart. This could be a prelude of the retest of the parity.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,635
  • Jun 8, 2012 6:38am Jun 8, 2012 6:38am
Quoting DaddyBear
If Aussie breaks 0.9850, it would be a bullish EW pattern on M5 Chart. This could be a prelude of the retest of the parity.
DB.... I really like a long on AUD/USD at least into 9880... and from there I think it'll just carry upwards.

However, I had a very specific premarket analysis and trading plan for today, and I won't break that no matter how much I agree with you... but I think a long between 9760-9830 has a good chance of a bounce here...particularly if we can see any sorta move up in the euro during US session...

X
  • #46,636
  • Jun 8, 2012 6:44am Jun 8, 2012 6:44am
I wanted to enter back into a long position since I got stopped out earlier on. But with the Economic news due from China on the weekend. I might just sit it out and see what the go is on Monday.
  • #46,637
  • Jun 8, 2012 6:44am Jun 8, 2012 6:44am
Again...not taking it in my primary account, but did just put a small long on in a managed account at around 9840ish4, 50ish stop, 50ish 1st target...then manage as it goes.

I like the price symmetry, the flag base retest, the bullish action after the rate decrease earlier this week, the positive GDP, the fundamentals (to a degree any way...at least the CB interest rates)....the oversold conditions today, and the correlated market support in other risk currencies priced against the dollar.

Still won't take it in my primary or model account... but, if my own account wasn't tied by my pre-planned rules for today, i'd have it in my primary acct as well...

X
  • #46,638
  • Jun 8, 2012 6:58am Jun 8, 2012 6:58am
Quoting forextraderx
DB.... I really like a long on AUD/USD at least into 9880... and from there I think it'll just carry upwards.

However, I had a very specific premarket analysis and trading plan for today, and I won't break that no matter how much I agree with you... but I think a long between 9760-9830 has a good chance of a bounce here...particularly if we can see any sorta move up in the euro during US session...

X
The retracement yesterday appeared to be a corrective move. Now, M5 chart from 4:45 am EST is a bullish EW pattern so far. We shall see.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,639
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:03am Jun 8, 2012 7:03am
Quoting DaddyBear
The retracement yesterday appeared to be a corrective move. Now, M5 chart from 4:45 am EST is a bullish EW pattern so far. We shall see.
I feel very strongly that eur/usd and gbp/usd are also set up to bounce from similar levels going into US session... S&P finding support around the 1300 price too... that'll help. we'll open with a gap in the U.S. index at around 1312... if that gap moves to fill when U.S. equities open, aud/usd long should be pretty straightforward good trade.

X
  • #46,640
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:07am Jun 8, 2012 7:07am
Quoting DaddyBear
The retracement yesterday appeared to be a corrective move. Now, M5 chart from 4:45 am EST is a bullish EW pattern so far. We shall see.
4hr candles showing signs of slowing downward momentum+reversal patterns...

I like the long... so far easy and fast... usually a good sign.
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