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  • #46,661
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:11am Jun 8, 2012 10:11am
Really..above 9880, i see a pretty much straight away move to 9910... but 9900 may provide a hiccup on the way...

I see what your seeing BD... and I agree. In fact, I think think the strongest factor here is that the RBA reduced rates by a quarter, yet the AUD actually closed up at the end of that U.S. session from the previuos U.S. session.

when bad news like that comes out, yet a market moves up...it says underlying there is a very strong market... that and the record COT outstanding shorts for the AUD/USD is probably my two strongest considerations regarding why I think a continued move up is completely possible... the risk off sentiment coulde stop it.

and we either move up to a new high from 9825-40... or we hit 9750-9700...and move up from there.

2 places...or we an't gonna do it. IMO

and I think we will see a new high before we see a new low... so... i like it. But that being said... I still look for reasons why it may not work as I believe it will... the range resistance around 9880 is one of those reasons. We'll see.

I still don't dare close any more at this point tho

X
  • #46,662
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:16am Jun 8, 2012 10:16am
And, seems 15 min is showing some weakness here now... bit of a bearish reversal pattern... the 1 min rising trendline from around 9835 may be breaking as I type this... no matter...stops at BE>..i'll hold to stop or target now.

But seems taht 9880 is provding some degree of resistance. Also S&P hit 1310.75... this was a possible high for the day, and nearly a gap fill from yesterday...

I think we have a bit mroe to go today... but... funny how these things play out.

X
  • #46,663
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:18am Jun 8, 2012 10:18am
Quoting DaddyBear
Current Aussie move is very similar to what happened last Sunday night. Remember we traded side by side? The difference is the scale of current move is larger.
Well, yes... but on my charts, we did have a significant bearish reversal daily candle yesterday... I think this won't exactly support a move up.

I like it, don't get me wrong... I just see reason it may not become what we both would like below 9880. above 9880...it will likely hit 9900-10 without interruption.

X
  • #46,664
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:21am Jun 8, 2012 10:21am
Quoting tightscalper
took it
gah! I didn't mean take it here and now... man, sorry if that was misleading...i only meant to consider these types of opportunities to be able to capture a stronger aud to a weaker risk market, like eur.

I think the short today was above 2710 (obviously, duh)... at this price and time of the day and day of the week...i'm just holding my one little long aud, and letting the cards fall where they may.

X
  • #46,665
  • Edited 10:14pm Jun 8, 2012 10:22am | Edited 10:14pm
Quoting forextraderx
Really..above 9880, i see a pretty much straight away move to 9910... but 9900 may provide a hiccup on the way...

I see what your seeing BD... and I agree. In fact, I think think the strongest factor here is that the RBA reduced rates by a quarter, yet the AUD actually closed up at the end of that U.S. session from the previuos U.S. session.

when bad news like that comes out, yet a market moves up...it says underlying there is a very strong market... that and the record COT outstanding shorts for the AUD/USD is probably my two strongest considerations...
It's very impossible for a ball to stop volatile bouncing after flying to the moon and coming down to hit the earth. at least there should be one bounce. As to how high it will be, try to drop a ball from the top of Empire building and see how high it can bounce.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,666
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:27am Jun 8, 2012 10:27am
Alright... good point... maybe i'll learn something here. but regardless, i'm just ssaying 9880 is the only level in the way between me and my target at 9900.

once we cross that... the "ball" as it may be... has nothing to slow it down from moving up higher to my target.

X
  • #46,667
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:40am Jun 8, 2012 10:40am
Quoting forextraderx
Alright... good point... maybe i'll learn something here. but regardless, i'm just ssaying 9880 is the only level in the way between me and my target at 9900.

once we cross that... the "ball" as it may be... has nothing to slow it down from moving up higher to my target.

X
I try to look at the market with two approaches. First is the complicated Elliot principle analysis. The other is a simple mindset of a child. The later is more like the concept of Zen.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,668
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:47am Jun 8, 2012 10:47am
Quoting DaddyBear
I try to look at the market with two approaches. First is the complicated Elliot principle analysis. The other is a simple mindset of a child. The later is more like the concept of Zen.
Ya...i've noticed your a big E wave surfer. I'm not...though I do consider it from time to time.

the zen concept is one i'm working on every day. at any rate, it's good to see other good traders use a completely different set of tools, yet reach similar conclusions... "confluence" if you will on another level.

looks like we're moveing to break up now... should just be another hour or 2 tops, then i can close it up and hit the sack.

good trading again DB.

X
  • #46,669
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:52am Jun 8, 2012 10:52am
I really got my "start" if you will... by learning how to trade from one level to the next, technically speaking... so you'll see me mention these types of things on a regular basis... it's a comfort zone for me no doubt (well, that...and it DOES work this way)...

however over the last year i've been working on learning when a move is likely to break a level or 2 or more.... It seems you do this pretty well... so it's complimentary to my trading.

btw...what is your typical reward:risk ratio?

X
  • #46,670
  • Edited 4:02pm Jun 8, 2012 10:56am | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I try to look at the market with two approaches. First is the complicated Elliot principle analysis. The other is a simple mindset of a child. The later is more like the concept of Zen.
Japanese has been highly influenced by Zen since 6th century. I believe candlestick concept had something to do with Zen. 400 years ago, when that Japanese saw the rice market the way it's supposed to be, he "discovered" candlestick charting.

So there are different forces in the market. Fundamental is the catalyst and sentiment is the reaction. Candlesticks are the footprints of the market and one's mindset is the key to unlock the hidden secret of market move.

I am still learning the way to master my two approaches.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,671
  • Jun 8, 2012 11:02am Jun 8, 2012 11:02am
Quoting DaddyBear
Japanese has been highly influenced by Zen since 6th century. I believe candlestick concept had something to do with Zen. 400 years ago, when that Japanese saw the rice market the way it's supposed to be, he "discovered" candlestick charting.

So there are different forces in the market. Fundamental is the catalyst and sentiment is the result of the reaction. Candlestick is the footprint of the market and one's mindset is the key to unlock the hidden secret of market move.

I am still learning the way to master my two approaches.
I find the "zen" ideals actually can be witnessed in almost every aspect of trading the markets... and someone with a "zen like" approach will be able to trade the market with grace and elegance. Still working on mastery of this type of thing every single day. lol.

Do u trade anything else besides A/U and occassionally EU?
  • #46,672
  • Edited 10:03pm Jun 8, 2012 11:05am | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting forextraderx
I really got my "start" if you will... by learning how to trade from one level to the next, technically speaking... so you'll see me mention these types of things on a regular basis... it's a comfort zone for me no doubt (well, that...and it DOES work this way)...

however over the last year i've been working on learning when a move is likely to break a level or 2 or more.... It seems you do this pretty well... so it's complimentary to my trading.

btw...what is your typical reward:risk ratio?

X
When the entry is right on the money and one can see market's next moves, why is a reward:risk ratio needed? When applying R/R ratio, which is taught by many "experts", the mindset is closer to betting than trading. (Note: Betting is a better word for gambling. But betting may not be exactly the same as gambling. At least I know it's legal in the US to bet on markets.)
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,673
  • Jun 8, 2012 11:15am Jun 8, 2012 11:15am
Quoting DaddyBear
When the entry is right on the money and one can see market's next moves, why is a reward:risk ratio needed? When applying R/R ratio, which is taught by many "experts", the mindset is more close to betting than trading. (Note: Betting is a better word for gambling. But betting may not be exactly the same as gambling. At least I know it's legal in the US to bet on markets.)
Ya ya... agreed. of course I have an idea in mind at entry...but i'd say 95% play out differently... i never found success using a set RR or anything like that... more like, I knew a maximum risk, I knew the potential for profit was very nearly at least that risk... and from there.... anything goes as the market may dictate.

X
  • #46,674
  • Edited 3:48pm Jun 8, 2012 11:23am | Edited 3:48pm
Quoting forextraderx
I find the "zen" ideals actually can be witnessed in almost every aspect of trading the markets... and someone with a "zen like" approach will be able to trade the market with grace and elegance. Still working on mastery of this type of thing every single day. lol.

Do u trade anything else besides A/U and occassionally EU?
Yes, I traded EUR and EURJPY before. The problem is that there are so many Euro members. Therefore, there are so many unexpected news coming out of Europe everyday. As to the Yen, there is always a possibility the BOJ intervenes the Forext market. On the other hand, Aussie is a currency of a single country like USD. It may be more suitable for me to trade at this time.

I plan to trade GLD and SLV options with IB in the future. I was good in trading options before I ever read one technical book. I started to lose money after buying all kind of books, DVD courses, and etc. When there are so many opinions in one's head, it blocks one's simplest mindset to see the market. The only two methods I believe when trading market now are Elliott Principle and Fibonacci numbers. They are two greatest findings with natural principles. Unlike all kind rules set by today's experts, they have been there for quite a while. More importantly, Elliott and Fibonacci were not intended to take money from my pocket at all.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,675
  • Jun 8, 2012 11:39am Jun 8, 2012 11:39am
Quoting forextraderx
gah! I didn't mean take it here and now... man, sorry if that was misleading...i only meant to consider these types of opportunities to be able to capture a stronger aud to a weaker risk market, like eur.

I think the short today was above 2710 (obviously, duh)... at this price and time of the day and day of the week...i'm just holding my one little long aud, and letting the cards fall where they may.

X
meant i took it like ten hours ago
  • #46,676
  • Jun 8, 2012 3:12pm Jun 8, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Yes, I traded EUR and EURJPY before. The problem is that there are so many Euro members. Therefore, there are so many unexpected news coming out of Europe everyday. As to the Yen, there is always a possibility the BOJ intervenes the Forext market. On the other hand, Aussie is a currency of a single country like USD. It may be more suitable for me to trade at this time.

I plan to trade GLD and SIV options with IB in the future. I was good in trading options before I ever read one technical book. I started to lose money after buying all kind of...
Well, for such a basic approach to your analysis, you seem to really nail it time and again (from what I've seen here anyway). I'm really going to think about your whole "viewing the market through the most simple terms" idea... that resonates with me, as I have some of my own very unique ways of looking at the markets... (and I tend to think most really good traders do) and as I type, the aud/usd is about 30 pips above my target, and still going strong... so obviously your view of it is playing out well... the whole ball analogy.

I like it. and it seems to really work for you... I don't think i'm going to incorporate it on any real level right now... as I have a more technical preference for making such determinations... but the fact that it gives you a real confidence to hold your positions is what I am not comfortable with in my own trading at this point.

I could really go into some theory at this point, but I don't care to, and it's the weekend for me now.

anyway, another good day DB, for both of us, and I look to continue this out in the coming weeks!

X
  • #46,677
  • Jun 8, 2012 3:32pm Jun 8, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting forextraderx
Well, for such a basic approach to your analysis, you seem to really nail it time and again (from what I've seen here anyway). I'm really going to think about your whole "viewing the market through the most simple terms" idea... that resonates with me, as I have some of my own very unique ways of looking at the markets... (and I tend to think most really good traders do) and as I type, the aud/usd is about 30 pips above my target, and still going strong... so obviously your view of it is playing out well... the whole ball analogy.

I like it....

This morning when I called this trade, it was between 0.9830 and 0.9840. I projected Aussie would hit 61.08% (0.99335) and she did. It was 0.99401.

Based on today's trading and my chart pattern I closed my long positions near the top range and entered short. I will keep them over the weekend. This bounce was over and we shall see a gap down Sunday night. IMHO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,678
  • Jun 8, 2012 11:56pm Jun 8, 2012 11:56pm
Looks like there is gonna be a counter party to your trader man.
I tooks a trade earlier on audusd and it worked out pretty good.
Am still looking to hold it for another day or two, since I believe we have very strong support for it to the upside in short term. Here is the trade attached. Entered a little late, was too patient with the trade. I trade just looking at the charts themselves, and dont use indicators or anything like that. Have had good results so far based on just pure chart looking. Good trading everyone and hope we all have profitable trades ahead.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd m5.gif Size: 52 KB
  • #46,679
  • Jun 9, 2012 6:45am Jun 9, 2012 6:45am
Just wanted to share experience from Friday's trading session.

I was doing well throughout the day, scalping shorts (5-15 pips) per trade.. and accumulated up to USD 390 for the day, right before Obama spoke.

So, what did I do? I decided to put up 2 more short scalps, and instead of closing the trades when I was up 3 pips, I decided to be greedy and the trades went the other way in which I lost USD 200 in those trades.

Still made USD 190 in a day (which is considered a good day for me)... but morale of the story, DON'T trade when any one considered important is talking, especially during the time when the Market is still figuring which direction it wants to go to.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #46,680
  • Jun 9, 2012 8:43am Jun 9, 2012 8:43am
Quoting whet412
Looks like there is gonna be a counter party to your trader man.
I tooks a trade earlier on audusd and it worked out pretty good.
Am still looking to hold it for another day or two, since I believe we have very strong support for it to the upside in short term. Here is the trade attached. Entered a little late, was too patient with the trade. I trade just looking at the charts themselves, and dont use indicators or anything like that. Have had good results so far based on just pure chart looking. Good trading everyone and hope we all have profitable...
Is this a real or a demo account?
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