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AUD/USD

  • #46,641
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:09am Jun 8, 2012 7:09am
Quoting forextraderx
I feel very strongly that eur/usd and gbp/usd are also set up to bounce from similar levels going into US session... S&P finding support around the 1300 price too... that'll help. we'll open with a gap in the U.S. index at around 1312... if that gap moves to fill when U.S. equities open, aud/usd long should be pretty straightforward good trade.

X
I am in agreement with you. There could be a consolidation at 23.6% area before Aussie moves up decisively.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,642
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:33am Jun 8, 2012 7:33am
Quoting DaddyBear
I am in agreement with you. There could be a consolidation at 23.6% area before Aussie moves up decisively.
8:25 AM M5 bar sat on the intersection of two support zones. Current PA confirms that it held well so far.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,643
  • Jun 8, 2012 7:38am Jun 8, 2012 7:38am
CAD numbers weighting things a bit...but I think it's somewhat temporary... waiting for EU to make new lows for today...or better still hit 2440... then, we'll see what really is going on, IMO

X
  • #46,644
  • Jun 8, 2012 8:15am Jun 8, 2012 8:15am
Quoting forextraderx
CAD numbers weighting things a bit...but I think it's somewhat temporary... waiting for EU to make new lows for today...or better still hit 2440... then, we'll see what really is going on, IMO

X
If Aussie breaks the trend line from 5:45 AM M5 bar, she will be heading higher.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,645
  • Jun 8, 2012 8:23am Jun 8, 2012 8:23am
Quoting DaddyBear
If Aussie breaks the trend line from 5:45 AM M5 bar, she will be heading higher.

Ehh...I think the markets are so biased risk off today, that it's overdone for the moment. Time for a bounce IMO.

Of course I'm long risk at the moment... after waiting all day for my short levels to hit (they never did)...

Took part of my trade off at the 12-13 pip mark since I just don't love being long risk today... put stops at a place where a loss will still guearantee a profit for the week...

that and the price levels eur/usd just hit at 2440 i'm thinking it's pretty much the lows for the day in correlated currencies.

but, we'll see. At this point i'm not even watching for prices to close above certain points, I knoda just hve confidence it'll move up 25-35 pips before moving down that to my stop.

X
  • #46,646
  • Jun 8, 2012 8:46am Jun 8, 2012 8:46am
I normally a eur/used kid. But entered some trades on this last night because looked very bullish. Thinking there is no way it could go down with all the fundamentals. But now I find my self second guessing. Holding a losing trade solely because I can't see reasons for it to drop nor keep dropping. I have been expecting it to correct and continue up but am I not validating the moves on eur/ usd correctly? I mean is eur going to drag the aud down with it? I honestly cannot explain bears being in control ATM
  • #46,647
  • Jun 8, 2012 8:49am Jun 8, 2012 8:49am
Quoting tightscalper
I normally a eur/used kid. But entered some trades on this last night because looked very bullish. Thinking there is no way it could go down with all the fundamentals. But now I find my self second guessing. Holding a losing trade solely because I can't see reasons for it to drop nor keep dropping. I have been expecting it to correct and continue up but am I not validating the moves on eur/ usd correctly? I mean is eur going to drag the aud down with it? I honestly cannot explain bears being in control ATM
I think u said it with eur/usd dragging the rest down... it's really just one big trade in the world right now... long risk or short risk.

pick your poison, but they all pretty much move alike, especially the past couple of days.

not sure where your long from TS, but i'm long myself from around 9840... and willing to let it play out until we hit at least 9875-80

X
  • #46,648
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:00am Jun 8, 2012 9:00am
Well... i'm out of about 3/4 my origional position now.... I just dont' like being long risk today. Waited all day for my ideal entry short to hit, and the market never pulled up to it... so, basically one long AUD is all i took today.

If it stops, i'll basically BE on it...and target will make maybe half a percent.

Slow day when the right opportunities just don't materialize.

Anyway, good trading. i'll keep watching for my bounce and then short... but i'm just not seeing it at this point in time until next week...

X
  • #46,649
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:05am Jun 8, 2012 9:05am
Quoting forextraderx
Ehh...I think the markets are so biased risk off today, that it's overdone for the moment. Time for a bounce IMO.

Of course I'm long risk at the moment... after waiting all day for my short levels to hit (they never did)...

Took part of my trade off at the 12-13 pip mark since I just don't love being long risk today... put stops at a place where a loss will still guearantee a profit for the week...

that and the price levels eur/usd just hit at 2440 i'm thinking it's pretty much the lows for the day in correlated currencies.

but, we'll see. At...
Obama's pending speech may be the catalyst of today's move. IMHO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,650
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:15am Jun 8, 2012 9:15am
Quoting DaddyBear
Obama's pending speech may be the catalyst of today's move. IMHO.
Very tru... and I like what I have now also...considering I can't lose on the trade over all regardless of what it does.

So... i'm thinking 9880 is pretty much a done deal now...i'm going for 9900 myself.

X
  • #46,651
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:17am Jun 8, 2012 9:17am
But there really is no reason for a rise on usd.. There isn't any strength there it is only strong when compared to eur. All funds entails point to aud buy
  • #46,652
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:23am Jun 8, 2012 9:23am
Quoting tightscalper
But there really is no reason for a rise on usd.. There isn't any strength there it is only strong when compared to eur. All funds entails point to aud buy
agreed... but with such a risk off day... it's hard to fight the market at times like these.

If the flows are bearish... the flows are bearish.

I think in this case it's a matter of find a good place, manage your exposure well, and know that if you do this 100 times, you'll make a profit on 55-70 of those trades.

Andk know that when the flows are so bearish...expect to lose more often taking long risk trades. But...this all being said... i'm long from 9838.9...and I really don't mind it one bit.

If i was long from 9880, i'd be not so comfortable.

X
  • #46,653
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:26am Jun 8, 2012 9:26am
Quoting forextraderx
Very tru... and I like what I have now also...considering I can't lose on the trade over all regardless of what it does.

So... i'm thinking 9880 is pretty much a done deal now...i'm going for 9900 myself.

X
I see a possibility of retesting the parity. At least reaching 61.80%. Aussie's move depends on Obama's speech today. We all know Obama is good at talking, which tends to move the market.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,654
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:26am Jun 8, 2012 9:26am
Quoting tightscalper
But there really is no reason for a rise on usd.. There isn't any strength there it is only strong when compared to eur. All funds entails point to aud buy

Also, its times like these when going long the better stronger risk market against the weaker risk market is a trade worth consideration.

Take...oh.. SHORT EUR/AUD... regardless of what risk markets do... your basically not vulnerable to overall market bias, but just to your two specific currencies. This would have been a nice trade in the US session today...

X
  • #46,655
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:35am Jun 8, 2012 9:35am
if aud/usd hits 9880, 9900 should be a done deal... if it can't hit 9880...then we'll revist the lows of the US session at least, IMO
  • #46,656
  • Jun 8, 2012 9:46am Jun 8, 2012 9:46am
Quoting forextraderx
if aud/usd hits 9880, 9900 should be a done deal... if it can't hit 9880...then we'll revist the lows of the US session at least, IMO
Why is it 9880?
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,657
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:02am Jun 8, 2012 10:02am
Quoting DaddyBear
Why is it 9880?
Well, I see 9878-9880 to be the peak of the range it's been in... but above that, nothign of real significance until the psych number of 9900.

essentially, it has nothing but "clear blue sky" between 9880 and 9900 IMO...

it's basically at that 9880 level now...lets see if we can break....

X

P.S. BTW...another nice team trade there DB.... i never had more than a 9 pip drawdown on what is now a 36 pip profitable long... go teamwork. lol
  • #46,658
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:04am Jun 8, 2012 10:04am
Quoting forextraderx
if aud/usd hits 9880, 9900 should be a done deal... if it can't hit 9880...then we'll revist the lows of the US session at least, IMO
Based on H1 chart, this bounce is not halfway yet. IMHO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,659
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:09am Jun 8, 2012 10:09am
Quoting forextraderx
Also, its times like these when going long the better stronger risk market against the weaker risk market is a trade worth consideration.

Take...oh.. SHORT EUR/AUD... regardless of what risk markets do... your basically not vulnerable to overall market bias, but just to your two specific currencies. This would have been a nice trade in the US session today...

X
took it
  • #46,660
  • Jun 8, 2012 10:10am Jun 8, 2012 10:10am
Quoting forextraderx
Well, I see 9878-9880 to be the peak of the range it's been in... but above that, nothign of real significance until the psych number of 9900.

essentially, it has nothing but "clear blue sky" between 9880 and 9900 IMO...

it's basically at that 9880 level now...lets see if we can break....

X

P.S. BTW...another nice team trade there DB.... i never had more than a 9 pip drawdown on what is now a 36 pip profitable long... go teamwork. lol

Current Aussie move is very similar to what happened last Sunday night. Remember we traded side by side? The difference is the scale of current move is larger.
daddybearforex. com
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