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  • #653,641
  • Jun 7, 2012 12:44pm Jun 7, 2012 12:44pm
guys. here's my deduction. please correct me if I'm wrong as I'm just starting out.

on the 15min and 30min chart, a bearish butterfly was formed when price was tested at 1.2624.

Price tested 1.2624 which was a past daily support which seems to have become resistance. FIBO retracement of 61.8% was also around this level(1.2620).

Price drops and now, it will test 1.2624 again. If it bounces off 1.2624 again,
retracement 'might' be complete and would continue on it's way down for now considering that there are no news within the next few hours. Or it might go down and come back up to test 1.2624 again.

If it breaks 1.2624, it might go up to 1.2667 and come down or 1.2822.
  • #653,642
  • Jun 7, 2012 12:46pm Jun 7, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting Top Pip
Hi all! I'm just slightly confused this Italian bond auction wasn't in the FF calender of news today but it had a large reaction... But French and Spanish bond actions were in the calender today and had a smaller reactions to Eur/Usd PA. So was this Italian bond action a sporadic event that could happen any time or is there other free good news streams to watch where i can find when these auction occur. As these Bond actions effect the PA a hell of alot more then any of other news. But it would be good if someone could help me out as i feel like...

my friend today , Ben and China moved PA, i did not notice any Italian bond sales driven PA
Mohan
  • #653,643
  • Jun 7, 2012 12:48pm Jun 7, 2012 12:48pm
My last trade for today

http://s10.postimage.org/w6gwkkcq1/euro.gif
hosting images
swing it!
  • #653,644
  • Jun 7, 2012 12:54pm Jun 7, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting tomspin
My last trade for today

http://s10.postimage.org/w6gwkkcq1/euro.gif
hosting images
good call
  • #653,645
  • Jun 7, 2012 12:58pm Jun 7, 2012 12:58pm
once again news driven push down

RTRS: European Commission pressuring Greece to wind down some banks
Mohan
  • #653,646
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:00pm Jun 7, 2012 1:00pm
"my friend today , Ben and China moved PA, i did not notice any Italian bond sales driven PA"
haha i know that the morning rally was china and 3-4 was ben but apparently the 50 pip move up at 6 GMT was caused by a successful Italian bond auction... as i didn't here big ben come out at 6 and say Qe3 all round haha. But anyway i added to my short at the top of the recent move up and in good profit. so i'm happy that way but i would still like to know from anyone where i can find a good free news stream which includes all the big European country bond auctions for the day thanks.
  • #653,647
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:04pm Jun 7, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting Top Pip
"my friend today , Ben and China moved PA, i did not notice any Italian bond sales driven PA"
haha i know that the morning rally was china and 3-4 was ben but apparently the 50 pip move up at 6 GMT was caused by a successful Italian bond auction... as i didn't here big ben come out at 6 and say Qe3 all round haha. But anyway i added to my short at the top of the recent move up and in good profit. so i'm happy that way but i would still like to know from anyone where i can find a good free news stream which includes all the big European country...

6 am GMT (franky) ? European market closed @ that time
Mohan
  • #653,648
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:05pm Jun 7, 2012 1:05pm
on the 15min and 30min chart, a bearish butterfly was formed when price was tested at 1.2624.
It was also at the moment when Ben was talking and the big bad boys listen to him to see if there is any hints on QE3 (Euro positive). Since he did not say there was a definite action but rather that plans were in place IF such and such blah blah blah. So the market saw this as Euro negative and it firt the butterfly.


Price tested 1.2624 which was a past daily support which seems to have become resistance. FIBO retracement of 61.8% was also around this level(1.2620).
Yes a very key area. There are other butterflies which would suggest a move to 2653 which is also a significant fibonacci level. In my understanding of the markets this has a good chance of occurring for 2 reasons. One; this is a negative sum game. Interpretation: there are lots of stops above 2623. Secondly, before the Euro tanks, if and when it does, may be dependent on the outcome of the general election in Greece (June 17).



Price drops and now, it will test 1.2624 again. If it bounces off 1.2624 again,
retracement 'might' be complete and would continue on it's way down for now considering that there are no news within the next few hours. Or it might go down and come back up to test 1.2624 again.
I think price will bounce around for a while in this area until there is some fresh news or players with more clout.


If it breaks 1.2624, it might go up to 1.2667 and come down or 1.2822.
It may go to 1.30??
  • #653,649
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:14pm Jun 7, 2012 1:14pm
6 am GMT (franky) ? European market closed @ that time

London. Besides the point you don't sound like you know of any other free news streams. Thanks anyway
  • #653,650
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:15pm Jun 7, 2012 1:15pm
Dont be decieved, by todays market, the EURO has got it in charge. am going in for a ride with the bulls now.
  • #653,651
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:19pm Jun 7, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting Top Pip
6 am GMT (franky) ? European market closed @ that time

London. Besides the point you don't sound like you know of any other free news streams. Thanks anyway
you could be right but as far as i know , European bond auction start after London open (7 gmt) (usually 1h later) and 6gmt hourly candle shows 20 pip push down
Mohan
  • #653,652
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:27pm Jun 7, 2012 1:27pm
Happy i went out and didn't trade this pair today.

Looks like bulls are in charge for further upside
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #653,653
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:29pm Jun 7, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting kuroro001
Happy i went out and didn't trade this pair today.

Looks like bulls are in charge for further upside

yes , all bad news ignored , bull is very strong , if it can't take out 2624 by tomorrow then it will commit suicide.

edit :ops its 4:30 am better sleep before wife wake up
Mohan
  • #653,654
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:32pm Jun 7, 2012 1:32pm
EUR short
USD long
  • #653,655
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:34pm Jun 7, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting mohan76
yes , all bad news ignored , bull is very strong , if it can't take out 2624 by tomorrow then it will commit suicide.

edit :ops its 4:30 am better sleep before wife wake up
Yes bears will commit suicide once its taken out.

hehe enjoy your sleep, cya for London tomorrow!
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #653,656
  • Jun 7, 2012 1:55pm Jun 7, 2012 1:55pm
Guys, i dont get it. Did the Chine rate cut had an impact on the market. If yes ,were ?
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #653,657
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:48pm Jun 7, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting chazzle
good rr for short sl above the high aiming toward 515
maybe take a few off , put the stop at b/e
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  • #653,658
  • Jun 7, 2012 2:52pm Jun 7, 2012 2:52pm
http://forex-chartanalysis.blogspot.de/
  • #653,659
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:23pm Jun 7, 2012 3:23pm
The fact that I´m awake and working, and that it´s 16.30 hrs here, makes me think that maybe I´m trading the wrong currencies =P


But EURUSD is less boring than USDCLP =S

Hope you have a good night sleep, and when you wake up you get green pips =)


Take care guys, I learn a lot from you all.


D.
  • #653,660
  • Jun 7, 2012 3:35pm Jun 7, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting chazzle
maybe take a few off , put the stop at b/e
screw it , close the rest here , keep it simple
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