Circular Trendlines

Current upward move almost reaching its limits. Expecting a drop to the 2513 level sometime soon

Here is a update, with a high of today at 2625, and a drop in progress that will end up at the lows of 2500

Support/Resistance levels shown through the Shell diagram on M15

Adding timelines through intersection points shown, you can draw more parallel lines on your chart using the same concept to get more time slots

Due to the failure of price action not going below 2544 this morning, the possibility of more upward movement is presenting itself.

small example of what I like to do

Ok, I know this own looks like a mess, buuuut it does containt A LOT of info. This is where I tend to use the Arcs for time analysis, hence my interest in YOUR methods.

As you may strain to see, I will use both sides of the Fib Arc, backward and forward trend lines which I think is very useful, helps narrow down time zones even more. Speaking of time zones, I like using the Fib Time Zone too, why not, it has proven to be very effective. So sorry for the crazy chart, I thought it would be prudent to spend a little time with this pair EuroGBP, given the circumstances and with the Olympics around the corning. This should be an interesting pair to watch, with what my projection shows and where it happens to stand in current chart analysis.

I tend to do some overlapping of currencies for balance and a second level of analysis within the same chart. I usually like my charts nice and clean and simple, but in this game, sometimes the only way to get a clue on a bias is to pull out as far as possible and then needle down the zones from afar.

This pair is respecting the support/resistance lines of all the tools, especially the Arc's!

Here, I overlapped the EuroUSD pair (thin yellow line). Note this is a weekly chart, so I could get as macro as possible.

There are some Major confluences on this time frame and this pair. Note, The penetration of the light blue 610 Fib Time Zone (EuroGbp) which JUST passed and now the EUR/USD is up next, just in time for the Olympics?!?!

sjc

Just a random thought I had, plot just the golden ratio Arcs and see how it pans out....pretty neat.

Something that I think tends to get over looked when it comes to Arcs is using the Vertical time line of the arc, not just the curvature of the arc itself. The vertical time stamping of when price meets the vertical resistance of the arc is VERY important.

I kept this chart clean, did not plot any vertical time stamp like a tend to do. But they are still pretty obvious.

sjc

Same as prior USDJPY post, note the time stamp coming up on June 30th.

Liking the circle/arc more and more.

sjc

Last post of the day/weekend.

H2
Each cascading circle in the diagram represents a strong fib level. Price action has rebounded off the south pole of the blue circle. Since it has been a fairly strong rebound, the only way that it can continue more downward action is if it goes below the red circle area, which is roughly the 2490-2500 zone. If it does that,then a second touch to 2300 level is quite possible.

However if price action rebounds from its current position upwards, the 50.0 fib level is going to prove to be a weak level, since there is not a lot of strong resistance/support levels for it in the past. Price action will then travel to the 61.8 fib level and result in a false break of the blue circle.

H1
Time line on the H1 suggests a important action/reaction zone happening today that will last for the next couple of days till the 13th. Given our critical level of 2500, a sustenance above it could push this pair back up again for a second challenge of the 2650 level, and if it can sustain itself on the inside of the blue circle on the H2 time frame, then we might be in for a surprise spike towards 2900 level.

During the end of spring - beginning of summer months up until end of august, the RSI is a very good indicator to use and most times it gives authentic signals due to the lack of strong impulse moves on the weekly charts at such times.


Currently a oversold condition is indicated on the RSI, that could provide a low risk buy with as much as 10-15 pips of stoploss.

Buy at 2500
SL at 2490 or 2485

Using just the Fibb 61.8 levels, drawing from the lowpoint to all key reversal highs (for resistance) and key reversal lows (for support). Method holds its own quite nicely for forward projections.


Love your charts Kambooj!

i dont understand your charts. ...lol

Kambooj,


I notice you use FXCM too. There is an indicator MOON PHASE that shows the PAST new and full moon cycles. Unfortunately, future phases are not plotted. Not sure if that is something you consider or not, my preference in bias is using the NEW moon phase for time resistance/trend change. Next New Moon cycle begins June 19 @ 11:02 EST. Would love to add the layer of Astrological elements to chart analysis, but can't afford the software, nor am I very useful with MT4, so I will just keep it simple with the moon phases.

Here you go, this one shows future dates too.

The web is littered with tens of thousands of various indicators for MT4, if you look around a bit. Why limit yourself to FXCM.

yeah, I know it can look like a total mess, I leave the work to show the advancement of the methodology, just like my kid who shows his work supporting his answer.

You can also check the EUR/USD Planetary Cycles thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=108462

If you start reading the thread from the very beginning there are some neat astro tools that you can use as well.

For moon cycles I dont use any indicators, just check the times on http://www.timeanddate.com

In a downtrend, the vicinity of a full moon is usually a market low and the New Moon a market high.

June 1st on NFP we had a market low, and then on June 4th which was the full moon, we had a nice drop.

Third Quarter is today and we had a drop from last night as well.

At times, you do have what I call "Circular Reference", meaning that between a week period of time from one moon phase to the other the price level of the last moon phase will be visited.

Break of 2490/2500 has exposed more downside, but I am curious to see whether we will have a rebound at 2412, which was the reaction to the full moon, based on my observations from the past

If we do, then for the next little while until the new moon we will make a market high.

80% of the time a New Moon is a sell scenario.

I am not ruling out the possibility of a expanding scenario, because a total reversal of a trend on the daily time frame, usually travels a good 400-600 pip with very few retracement beyond 38.2 / 50.0 fib levels.

We are seeing large retracements now, which could signify that the correction that has started from the low of 2290 is not done yet.

The position of the 2 dotted circles could be debated, because one points to a yearly low of 2290 and the other says that the yearly low has not been done yet, and it would be around the 1950-2000 levels.

To me price action behaviour still is not reminicent of a condition where there is no more return to a lower low, so a lower low is in the works, but price behaviour is also showing strong desire to go upwards as well. On the daily chart we need a solid bounce from the blue line, because in between the blue and the dotted black line there are no significant resistance levels yet.

I am holding back my buys right now, until i see reaction with respect to 2412. If all goes well over there, then I enter once it breaks above 2450
If it doesnt go well then I am looking at the 88.6 and 78.6 fib levels to get in

88.6 fib level of 2285-2670 is 2328
and both 78.6 level of the same rise is 2367

My gut feeling is that we are entering the period of the year, where a lot of wipsaws happen until the final target is hit in august. This is a time of year marked by uncertainty and large retracements, but overall on the daily time frame we are going no where until a important high is made.

The work in this thread is truly amazing.

Thanks so much for the contributors and the education.

Hi, Kambooj, This is what i found onH4.

on 50 fib swing 1.2265-1.2666, the supp seems to be strong. Do you think it could hold ? I think the the price will test the 50 fib on a larger swing at 1.2783 ? . from which It'll go south..

http://wahai.com/h4upnow.png

Morning
This my first post after my family lose maybe still not in great mind state but my view as your view @2790
GL ALL