EUR/CHF

who the f.... is selling all the eur/chf at this levels against a snb which can come out with measures which can kill you if you are short!!!

Help me!

It's not only FX market...it's because of big capitals deposits into Swiss banks due EU crisis..everyone from Greece/Spain/Italy/investment fonds are depositing huge quantities in CHF making CHF stronger overall...this not due only to FX positions.
If I put a deposit in a Swiss bank (converting EUR in CHF), I don't mind if the EUR/CHF is 1.20 or 1.22 or whatever because in time, I know Swiss economy is safe regardless the rest of EU zone.

since when i take this pair as a fix deposit
the swap is better than in bank. but for short profit.. i give up

People who close longs like tunera did+Real inflow + georgedoran the pessimistic guy

Seems to challenge the resistance at 1,2012 now...maybe this time...

Imo looks like leaving bull army disappointed wasnt good strategy, had to raise floor to 1.25 with a hint to 1,3 in one year, and then grexit or not they would still have the leveraged warriors on their side. Probably massive stops also heavily decreased below 1,2. Raise the f. floor to 1,22 after greek elections monkeys, then you win one year again at least!

In the near term, next weeks inflow into CHF should be one of the greatest as it is the Greek election week. There are pros and cons if SNB act before or after the election. Anyone wants to do a bit of brainstrom on this issue?

Imo looks like leaving bull army disappointed wasnt good strategy, had to raise floor to 1.25 with a hint to 1,3 in one year, and then grexit or not they would still have the leveraged warriors on their side. Probably massive stops also heavily decreased below 1,2. Raise the floor to 1,22 after greek elections SNB monkeys, then you win one year again at least!

Hmmm. Hard to predict what they will do as IMO they have already turned the market sentiment against themselves which wasn't a good strategy as I wrote before or maybe they prepare something that we dont know yet.

An obvious step would be the delay of their June monetary session with one week, in order to have more information from Greece, but maybe that would cost a lot of "face" and credibility. After todays result I think what they need is capital controls (like Brasil in norda paper) in order to win time, so I would say they will go for it next week or the week after. Dont really see a downside of such a step. If they drop the peg then for sure they can find the rate around 1,0 or lower very soon and see plant and company shutdowns in all Swland. So its not an option IMO. Besides they have already communicated to the market the capital control decision.

I dont know if ever happened in history that they delayed their session because of foreign circumstances.

Can capital control also involve taxes on forex transaction?

Practically anything, in Brasil if you've read the nordea paper they've asked banks for 60% deposit for long BRL positions if I remember well

Major measures in Brasil capital controls (c: nordea via tim10167 thanks)


Date
10/18/2010
IOF (financial transactions tax) on domestic
corporate foreign bond and loan inflows with
maturities of up to 1 year raised from 4% to 6%.

10/18/2010
IOF on nonresidents’
margin deposits for derivative contracts
raised from 0.38% to 6%.

1/6/2011
60% reserve requirement on banks' short spot
USD/ BRL positions exceeding the minimum of USD
3bn or the capit al base introduced.

4/6/2011
The 6% IOF tax on external debt inflows
extended to loans and bonds with maturities of
up to 2 years, up from 1 year. IOF on consumer
credit raised from 1.5% to 3%.

7/8/2011
60% reserve requirement on banks' short spot
USD/ BRL positions exceeding the minimum of USD
1bn or the capital base introduced.

7/26/2011
1% IOF tax on FX derivatives positions (on
incremental long BRL positions via derivatives);
the 6% IOF tax on external debt inflows
exceeding 2 years, which are partially or fully
redeemed within 24 months, extended

3/1/2012
The 6% IOF tax on external debt inflows
extended to loans and bonds with maturit ies of
up to 3 years, up from 2 years

3/12/2012
The 6% IOF tax on external debt inflows
extended to loans and bonds with maturities of
up to 5 years, up from 3 years

Ongoing
Continuous FX spot interventions, on-and-off
weekly reverse FX swap operations

seems to break now!

It will go down to 1.201 again...small cleanup..time to reload again.

omg the rocket is on the lauchpad

what was the reason of this moving up?

Because price has been trapped in such a small range any movement looks massive

Damn, I missed the little spike and it didn't hit my TP on the few lots that I left opened....

you will get another chance i think

As everytime people here is optimistic it goes down. There's no reason to be optimistic