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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #315,521
  • Jun 3, 2012 9:24am Jun 3, 2012 9:24am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post5703375


here im already thinking
eur gbp buy near end of month way ahead ,of boobs come professionals like you
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #315,522
  • Jun 3, 2012 9:37am Jun 3, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Bones
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post5703303

here stu pot

check price now
i am not getting involved in this for yah both..its jubilee weekend
  • #315,523
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:01am Jun 3, 2012 10:01am
Quoting redbeben
but all depends on how fast will the USD crash.....coz it will crash for sure.
Not a chance of the dollar crashing, at most it'll just drop for a retrace & it'll climb higher in the coming months.
The monthly usdx quite clearly had printed a bullish marubozu at May's close & to top it off it had also now form the rising three formation, that's a bullish continuation pattern.

Quoting redbeben
anyway I have a slightly better view on EU and I can see a possible reversed HS on Monthly + the past M200 that was pierced in the...
That's never an inverse H&S pattern. H&S is a top reversal pattern while the inv H&S is a bottom reversal pattern. The monthly euro is neither, it's just in a massive range. Having said that I do agree with you there is a possibility the euro might just retrace but only up to 1.27 level, before tanking again to at least 1.18
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thank You
  • #315,524
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:10am Jun 3, 2012 10:10am
Quoting Bones
im not going to hold gold when $ hit target am I ,

which is why I closed $ positions

I ONLY HAVE EUR GBP LONG 10 PP

Tony you are totally missing the point.

I actually agree with some of your calls and we are quite often on the same side of the market, except the gold trade of course.

Anyway, as I said before I am buying physical so the lower it goes the more I can buy.

The point I was trying to make was that we don't 'know' what the market is gonna do next and trying to pretend we do is puerile in the extreme. We can only deal in probabilities.

Re EURGBP, my strategy is - if it closes above 81 I might buy - below 79 I'm a seller. Given what is happening in Europe atm I am a lot more comfortable selling tho.

But I'm certainly not gonna get into a pissing match with you about who's right or wrong.
  • #315,525
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:11am Jun 3, 2012 10:11am
Quoting wormboy
Not a chance of the dollar crashing, at most it'll just drop for a retrace & it'll climb higher in the coming months.
The monthly usdx quite clearly had printed a bullish marubozu at May's close & to top it off it had also now form the rising three formation, that's a bullish continuation pattern.



That's never an inverse H&S pattern. H&S is a top reversal pattern while the inv H&S is a bottom reversal pattern. The monthly euro is neither, it's just in a massive range. Having said that I do agree with you there is a possibility the euro might...

Hi Azim,

Didn't think you hung out here
  • #315,526
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:17am Jun 3, 2012 10:17am
Quoting stewrigh
Hi Azim,

Didn't think you hung out here
Hiya stew

I don't ... was just browsing thru & saw red's post, thought I'd point out the obvious since no one else did.

How are you doing my friend?
Thank You
  • #315,527
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:18am Jun 3, 2012 10:18am
What's coming up
Monday,Tues Bank holiday London

Tues
10:00am USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

My strategy is to wait and see direction tonight I sense up both EU and Cable.
If ISM is negative (US economy is reversing back to recession latest unemployment numbers are growing larger and people are losing their jobs even in govern sector.)Good place to buy and hold until Weds
4:30am GBP
Construction PMI

In theory you could buy and hold (if it continues up) and close before 4am and SELL Cable before 4.30.I suspect price drop at 4.30 and sharp drop.

Anyway this is my thought process
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #315,528
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:25am Jun 3, 2012 10:25am
u know tony is a good trader why u guys are fighting is beyond me..tony has been on point with his analysis..i admit he is super confident in his positions and it is showing in abundance..but this is no reason for attack

btw i am long and in trouble (waiting for the mofo to go up)




i just wonder how low this cable is set to go b4 going up..[/quote]


limbo cable.how low can it go ?

well if we go down next stop is 1.5164 as I mentioned in one previous post and if that one fails it is 1.45 and fast.1.45 will hold as it is a decent support.

on the monthly chart I put some trendlines

price broke the monthly uptrendline but didn't followthru and weekly closed above it so it might be a fals breakout.

on the other side price stopped on the 23.6 % fibo

what can happen now is to either continue south to the mentioned levels or to go upto the upper trendline which will be broken and price will aim for 38% fibo and 50% (my target)
  • #315,529
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:52am Jun 3, 2012 10:52am
Quoting wormboy
Hiya stew

I don't ... was just browsing thru & saw red's post, thought I'd point out the obvious since no one else did.

How are you doing my friend?
I'm good thanks and I agree with you re dollar.

Mind you, if when, they ever sort the Euro mess out focus will switch to the dollar - US is in as much, maybe more, trouble than Europe and longer term we might even see dollar lose it's reserve status - then it'll crash big time

I still pop into your thread occasionally btw. Still going strong I see.
  • #315,530
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:03am Jun 3, 2012 11:03am
[quote=redbeben;5723693]u know tony is a good trader why u guys are fighting is beyond me..tony has been on point with his analysis..i admit he is super confident in his positions and it is showing in abundance..but this is no reason for attack

btw i am long and in trouble (waiting for the mofo to go up)


Think you should direct that comment to Tony - 'ppl in glass houses'.

Anyway if he's that precious he shouldn't be trading at all.
  • #315,531
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:19am Jun 3, 2012 11:19am
Quoting stewrigh
I'm good thanks and I agree with you re dollar.

Mind you, if when, they ever sort the Euro mess out focus will switch to the dollar - US is in as much, maybe more, trouble than Europe and longer term we might even see dollar lose it's reserve status - then it'll crash big time

I still pop into your thread occasionally btw. Still going strong I see.
Yup, agreed on the longterm view on the us dollar.

Just that this year tho I do not see it crashing, retraces maybe but not crash. I've mentioned this in my thread since 3rd quarter last year that this year the us dollar will be bullish, based on the quarterly chart & it had so far been good up till now. And the recently closed quarterly candle is very bullish so I reckon a retest of the 87 or 88 level is highly possible. The dollar will probably stall there.

Thanks, I'm not online that much nowadays but I do post when I am in a trade or two to share.
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  • #315,532
  • Jun 3, 2012 11:23am Jun 3, 2012 11:23am
Quoting wormboy
Not a chance of the dollar crashing, at most it'll just drop for a retrace & it'll climb higher in the coming months.
The monthly usdx quite clearly had printed a bullish marubozu at May's close & to top it off it had also now form the rising three formation, that's a bullish continuation pattern.



That's never an inverse H&S pattern. H&S is a top reversal pattern while the inv H&S is a bottom reversal pattern. The monthly euro is neither, it's just in a massive range. Having said that I do agree with you there is a possibility the euro might...

Hi there,
Well I didn't know about that formation(I was looking at one point for formations but I always see something different in the charts so the candles confuse me )
Techs that I follow tell me nothing so far in regards to the USDX ...I mean there is a MA200 sitting there with monthly candle on top of it,there is the 61.8% fibo at nearly same level so it might tank (considering that price does not respect the damn fibo's all the time)

The main reason I say it might tank is that USA has the biggest debt in the world and obviously there will be a time when all the fake numbers won't help the economy anymore.It will happen as it did in Europe one month ago.Price went up up up up on EU despite all the bad bad bad numbers on all domains in all the countries and then it tanked.

sooner or later people will realise that USD is not a safeheaven no more and will take attitude.

still EU has to go as low as 1.18 as a min.frankly I want it dead and burried coz such an union could never last and in my oppinion it was all made up by the wealthy investors from the first start.

I did study economics for years but what i did there has nothing to do with real deal.

In my view EU was only created from grownd 0 to steal money from the market in all possible ways.
Smart guys bought EU when it was low,cashed in the profit at the highs and now they sell all to double profit till they drive to the ground.

Living in Spain I've seen how EU money were poorly spent on all kind of stupid things.I don't want to talk about the rest of the EU contries from the sides of the zone.It is unbelivable on how millions were spent.

If any of you know the Plaza de Espagna in Seville where the andalusian govt building lies ....there are some small bridges over a small ''canal''...only one bridge was restored for the amazing price of 110k EUR from EU funds.

so a piece of concrete and some tiles were 110K EUR....I wonder what was the real price for the whole damn bridge....and the whole Plaza must have cost millions as it has 3-4 bridges and many other tile pictures

anyway,I'll leave this discussions for the EU summits and finance ministers


about the HS I don't use that more than a guide I was just looking at it trying to figure out the next move.

this month will be in a tight range considering the greek ellections but you never know what new bomb might trigger a sudden move....I heard that USA has done the plans to invade Iran so oil might go up and blow the whole thing.

bleah,I'm going back to study the charts.
than's for the candles head's up
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  • #315,533
  • Jun 3, 2012 12:51pm Jun 3, 2012 12:51pm
i would only say that there is no prize for the one who does the best prediction in price move coming in next 1 to 2000 months....

what really count is to follow price, and understand if +when + where it is turning.

now GU price is going down, and actually still no turning up. of course, we are in supposed strong area but need to appear demand. maybe friday's events gave 1st reason. actually not enough to allow me to open long targeting more than 30 pips

who bought in 1.52 - lower 1.53 in friday maybe collected a great amount of pips. but also the reject in 5420 (DP) have been a big slap!

i would thank you for posting USDx charts, looks very interesting!

but please don't discuss and try not to 'predict the future' only based in thoughts: we all know that everything can happen anytime and things change very fast and what was true yesterday, today can be not.

i also think that price one day will go up, and cover all those great tech levels left alone when coming down from 1.6060. But hell, opening a long is something different by my side

good luck evrybody
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #315,534
  • Jun 3, 2012 1:19pm Jun 3, 2012 1:19pm
talking about oil price?
eheh

talking about money wasted in something useless?
better we don't know how much have been spent in last stupid wars in last 5 years.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #315,535
  • Jun 3, 2012 2:34pm Jun 3, 2012 2:34pm
lol did you get a coin


Quoting nAVIN2007
i am not getting involved in this for yah both..its jubilee weekend
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #315,536
  • Jun 3, 2012 2:35pm Jun 3, 2012 2:35pm



Quoting redbeben
u know tony is a good trader why u guys are fighting is beyond me..tony has been on point with his analysis..i admit he is super confident in his positions and it is showing in abundance..but this is no reason for attack

btw i am long and in trouble (waiting for the mofo to go up)




i just wonder how low this cable is set to go b4 going up..

limbo cable.how low can it go ?

well if we go down next stop is 1.5164 as I mentioned in one previous post and if that one fails it is 1.45 and fast.1.45 will hold as it is a decent support.

on the monthly chart I put some trendlines

price broke the monthly uptrendline but didn't followthru and weekly closed above it so it might be a fals breakout.

on the other side price stopped on the 23.6 % fibo

what can happen now is to either continue south to the mentioned levels or to go upto the upper trendline which will be broken and price will aim for 38% fibo and 50% (my target)[/quote]
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #315,537
  • Jun 3, 2012 2:45pm Jun 3, 2012 2:45pm
Actually stu I think I'm not missing the point ,I think most traders here miss the point of what im saying completly , that time frames are fractal and actually you can forecast price over a very long time on the right one ,
Of course I know price can do anything at all ,im not god

but big money they do homework for the long term , they know what to expect and that shows ,





Quoting stewrigh
Tony you are totally missing the point.

I actually agree with some of your calls and we are quite often on the same side of the market, except the gold trade of course.

Anyway, as I said before I am buying physical so the lower it goes the more I can buy.

The point I was trying to make was that we don't 'know' what the market is gonna do next and trying to pretend we do is puerile in the extreme. We can only deal in probabilities.

Re EURGBP, my strategy is - if it closes above 81 I might buy - below 79 I'm a seller. Given what is happening...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #315,538
  • Jun 3, 2012 3:23pm Jun 3, 2012 3:23pm
so news coming for gbp ,I don't think good and I don't care what

i look at what its doing say on yearly and this is retrace into a very bearish year last year ,don't get me wrong the pound has done very well indeed to come this far

but this month ,its better to sell gbp,without doubt

but $ that did not have bearish year ,last year and I can tell you I think I will go higher
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp lfx monthly.gif Size: 18 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #315,539
  • Jun 3, 2012 3:26pm Jun 3, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting Bones
lol did you get a coin


no.. are we supposed to get one?
  • #315,540
  • Jun 3, 2012 3:35pm Jun 3, 2012 3:35pm
ask yourself how can cable go to 1.6 ,when set up so clear ?


Quoting Bones
so news coming for gbp ,I don't think good and I don't care what

i look at what its doing say on yearly and this is retrace into a very bearish year last year ,don't get me wrong the pound has done very well indeed to come this far

but this month ,its better to sell gbp,without doubt

but $ that did not have bearish year ,last year and I can tell you I think I will go higher
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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