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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #315,421
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:33am Jun 1, 2012 6:33am
Quoting Eric D
An awesome return for such small risks Goldfish, congrats! surely a party moving along!
Some bulls are showing them self? :-?
  • #315,422
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:39am Jun 1, 2012 6:39am
2 x pinbar [tweezer bottom] candles on 15min trigger on re-test of the previous 1hr swing lo zone leading down to current daily lo in top 1/2 of the previous Mthly/Wkly/Dly swing lo zone leading down to 5234, followed b y a 30min and 1hr PB candle trigger and a strong post NFP bounce up, Not closed yet of course but daily looking different than it was - proving again that a candle isn't a candle till it's closed !!

G/L
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ex member
  • #315,423
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:00am Jun 1, 2012 8:00am
Quoting id5
Does not make money in all markets.




You got it now, if USD loses value against your local currency it could go vastly up in USD but down in your local currency.

This is irrelevant. If you are trading on margin (with leverage) and if gold goes up 10% and your currency devalues 10%, you will still gain because your trade is leveraged and the loss in currency is dollar value. Otherwise no one would even make any money.


Best,
-H
  • #315,424
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:16am Jun 1, 2012 8:16am
Quoting aarash
Some bulls are showing them self? :-?
Yes stopped out ages ago on todays trade. Entire thing BE.
  • #315,425
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:21am Jun 1, 2012 8:21am
Quoting goldfish3
This is irrelevant. If you are trading on margin (with leverage) and if gold goes up 10% and your currency devalues 10%, you will still gain because your trade is leveraged and the loss in currency is dollar value. Otherwise no one would even make any money.


Best,
-H
It was not referring to a trade on margin.
  • #315,426
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:45am Jun 1, 2012 8:45am
Quoting id5
It was not referring to a trade on margin.
I see,

in that case

You buy physical gold in gbp.
assuming gbp/usd=1.5
you buy 1 ounce = 1600$ worth or gold = GBP 1066

gbp/usd increases to 1.6
gold increases to 2000$/ounce

you sell the ounce for 1250GBP or $2000

Purchasing power parity holds. Or maybe i'm misinterpreting what you mean??

Best,
-H
  • #315,427
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:05am Jun 1, 2012 9:05am
Quoting Zhu
Wow ... i wonder how much do you earn this week.. huhuhu...
never enough
  • #315,428
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:14am Jun 1, 2012 9:14am
Quoting goldfish3
I see,

in that case

You buy physical gold in gbp.
assuming gbp/usd=1.5
you buy 1 ounce = 1600$ worth or gold = GBP 1066

gbp/usd increases to 1.6
gold increases to 2000$/ounce

you sell the ounce for 1250GBP or $2000

Purchasing power parity holds. Or maybe i'm misinterpreting what you mean??

Best,
-H
Your misinterpreting. The OP thought that an increase in gold in USD would mean an increase in all markets which is not the case. In your example

assuming gbp/usd=1.5, you buy 1 ounce = 1600$ worth or gold = GBP 1066

Gold then rises to $2000 an ounce but the USD falls against the GBP to 2.0 then 1oz gold = £1000 a loss of £66
  • #315,429
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:18am Jun 1, 2012 9:18am
For those who are trapped in the market,there are 2 options opened to you:

1)Close your trade at loss.You still have some other days ahead to trade in which you can recover your loses(I hope this is better than to burn your account)

2)If you are using non-US based brokers, you may hedge your position against next week until you get the clear direction of the market next week but option 1 above is the most preferred.

BUT I NEED TO SAY THAT THIS DOES NOT AFFECT POSITION TRADERS.If this affects you let me hear from you
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #315,430
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:21am Jun 1, 2012 9:21am
Quoting biodunola07
For those who are trapped in the market,there are 2 options opened to you:

1)Close your trade at loss.You still have some other days ahead to trade in which you can recover your loses(I hope this is better than to burn your account)

2)If you are using non-US based brokers, you may hedge your position against next week until you get the clear direction of the market next week but option 1 above is the most preferred.

BUT I NEED TO SAY THAT THIS DOES NOT AFFECT POSITION TRADERS.If this affects you let me hear from you
price can only go so far before it change direction, catch the trend early, traders who does this would be ok.
  • #315,431
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:33am Jun 1, 2012 9:33am
Quoting id5
Does not make money in all markets.




You got it now, if USD loses value against your local currency it could go vastly up in USD but down in your local currency.
uhm..
let's say that today i bought 1000€ of gold. i dont mean in the platform. i need gold, that thing of golden colour... you know
with 1000€ today i buy approx 50gr of gold and actual price in USD is 1600 x oz. let's forget for a while the xau eur.

imagine that next year gold value is 2500 $ x oz.
i could decide to sell it.
let's say that next year euro have disappeared from earth since world discovered that is a stupid currency (not yet?!)
will i lose my 1000€ or will i be able to sell my gold and get the equivalent value in another stupid currency around the world?!

gold has its own value.
it is usd based but it is its own value.
everywhere you bought gold 2 years ago and sold it when 1900$ x oz, you got profits.

edit:
and more..
my trading account is in eur.
if i see reasons to buy xau usd or xau eur i will certainly do.
because if euro loses value, gold will fly respectively to euro. at least i will withdraw more euro and gain partially from the loss.

these are reasons why gold IMO will always be in uptrend until there is a society.
if one day world will come to an end, like some people say, gold value will tank and will be more expensive a piece of bread than 1 oz of gold. but in that case...... no need to think about gold value .. lol
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #315,432
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:41am Jun 1, 2012 9:41am
meanwhile today for what i can see, everybody who had money in accounts starting from grandmas till some central bank, bought gold.

price broke the 1600 line like was nothing.
next month (june) will be funny but IMO we see at least 1700 area (red).

will be looking like an hawk to buy it.
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #315,433
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:53am Jun 1, 2012 9:53am
Quoting id5
Your misinterpreting. The OP thought that an increase in gold in USD would mean an increase in all markets which is not the case. In your example

assuming gbp/usd=1.5, you buy 1 ounce = 1600$ worth or gold = GBP 1066

Gold then rises to $2000 an ounce but the USD falls against the GBP to 2.0 then 1oz gold = £1000 a loss of £66
2.50 am here and baby has woken me up
Yes but please remember, I said that buying at $1000 and selling at $1850 (85 percent increase) will make money regardless of currency, as long as USD does not fall in value against your currency by 85 percent or more. I understand the currency relationship but I was relating a specific situation because they were prices quoted to me by BB King the other day.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #315,434
  • Jun 1, 2012 10:08am Jun 1, 2012 10:08am
Quoting id5
Your misinterpreting. The OP thought that an increase in gold in USD would mean an increase in all markets which is not the case. In your example

assuming gbp/usd=1.5, you buy 1 ounce = 1600$ worth or gold = GBP 1066

Gold then rises to $2000 an ounce but the USD falls against the GBP to 2.0 then 1oz gold = £1000 a loss of £66
ok but so then what if we will have xau usd value 2k x oz and gbp usd @1.30?

tripled profits?

as i said, gold has its value. it's a thing, is not a number like currencies....
today you need X usd to buy it, tomorrow you will need X+ or X- usd. then if your local currency lose value against the usd is not a matter of gold, is a matter that everything you buy you spend more money because is your local currency that loses value. but in that case you will have MORE amount of local currency if the gold will appreciate.

if would not like this, why 2 years ago every body was buying gold like there was nothing else on earth than commodities? EU GU AU everything was in tank mode. stock markets and also something else. while GOLD, OIL. SILVER cryptonyte and sand were rising up.

when market are upset by currencies and useless things like stocks shares numbers numbers numbers and only numbers, they buy real things.

then if the existing quantity of gold is enough to cover all these exchanges.... well this is another matter :-P

edit: in your example you see the loss of 66£ while it is not like that. today you spend 1000£, that day you sell the gold you will have 1000£ but of the new value. so capital is safe and you gained more than inflaction, that's for sure. try to put £ 1000 in a bank account today and withdraw them 1 in year to understand what i mean.
so if gold value rises you gain, if usd value rises you gain, if gbp value rises you gain...etc. the only scenario where you lose, is IF the GOLD value tank. not the currencies!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #315,435
  • Jun 1, 2012 10:22am Jun 1, 2012 10:22am
last thing about gold, i promise...
today H-L is 80$ x oz increase unless it goes more up now last 2 hours (very possible!)

looking daily chart i didn't find anything similar in the past.
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  • #315,436
  • Jun 1, 2012 11:47am Jun 1, 2012 11:47am
Quoting _BBKing_
last thing about gold, i promise...
today H-L is 80$ x oz increase unless it goes more up now last 2 hours (very possible!)

looking daily chart i didn't find anything similar in the past.

Where is Bones today? Is he still on holidays? Hope he had a stop loss on his Gold Short -

Have a good weekend everyone.

Faller
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #315,437
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:37pm Jun 1, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting Faller
Where is Bones today? Is he still on holidays? Hope he had a stop loss on his Gold Short -

Have a good weekend everyone.

Faller
hope so , there is good jump today but still can assume false . next week will try for short again when indicated.
Have a nice weekend to all .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #315,438
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:51pm Jun 1, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting Faller
Where is Bones today? Is he still on holidays? Hope he had a stop loss on his Gold Short -

Have a good weekend everyone.

Faller
i think i had a stop loss around these levels or few near here...
problem is about nav. damn i hope he's ok! i would not like to be in his pants in this situation and i really hope he took the loss when price lost 1.57 showing no signs of recover (my last attempts to go long).

have a good wnd
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #315,439
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:53pm Jun 1, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting fontu
hope so , there is good jump today but still can assume false . next week will try for short again when indicated.
Have a nice weekend to all .
fontu
hi fontu, how is there?
i have the very same levels with a different study on chart gold.
let's see if 1700 will give problems.
i think in short term will show some pressure.

time will tell
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #315,440
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:06pm Jun 1, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting _BBKing_
i think i had a stop loss around these levels or few near here...
problem is about nav. damn i hope he's ok! i would not like to be in his pants in this situation and i really hope he took the loss when price lost 1.57 showing no signs of recover (my last attempts to go long).

have a good wnd

I would have hoped he took it off when we were at 1.63.....he was only looking for 1.65 - and if 1.65 gave him profit then 1.63 should have been close to breakeven.......geeezzzz we have dropped 1000 pips from 1.63.....

Hope he is well -

Good weekend to everyone...


Faller
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
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