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  • #650,461
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:02am Jun 1, 2012 7:02am
Quoting tightscalper
its all guess work.
Tightscalper.... here is a link to an article that you can see for yourself how these things are mentioned. This article doesn't give a dollar figure.... but many times they do... and sometimes, even discloses who the buyer is (very often large multinationals...or soverigen nations. China loves to place straddle trades with barriers... and in fact did so back when euro usd was ranging between 3000 and 3500.... not the only reason, but a partial reason of why it kept between those prices for so long)

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120531166797/

Again, there are lots of ways to trade the markets.

I just happen to want to have as great an understanding as possible so I feel I can make better decisions than the guy sitting next to me, and therefore have an edge that he doesn't.

It brings me peace of mind and that helps me gain more financial success. It's what I need to do my job well. It's really an individual thing... this type of approach is what I enjoy, and feel confident trading. SO this is my approach.

X

P.S. I'm not going to scour the web for more examples, or break down the details of reverse engineering the logic for you anymore than I have... I've told you why I thought a short at those prices was a worse idea than a long...I said I saw defensive buying around 2315 (the low was 2312), and I said i'd target 2335ish for a first target (we got to2338).

Either i'm just the best guesser in the world, or maybe I had a good idea of what was going on to stop the trend and reverse itf for 25ish pips.

If you want to learn more, feel free to look this stuff up yourself. If not, that's fine. it probably will cost me money in the long run, in some way anyway.

X
  • #650,462
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:02am Jun 1, 2012 7:02am
Yes, it's something I'm watching too and pretty reliable for longer term view..
Quoting forextraderx
Ya... and i'll be the first to say i'm not a COT expert by any means.

All I know is... that article I linked seems to play out pretty much as it says it would... time and time again.

I could go into it a bit more in depth with you at some other point Attila, or maybe you can check it out and let me know more.

I just don't feel like getting too deep into another theoretical aspect that is as detailed, and that I know so little about, as COT.

But, just one point on that now that I am remembering... I believe because as you said, the commercials...
  • #650,463
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:03am Jun 1, 2012 7:03am
Quoting jayjb
I have 1.227x as the next major support, below would see the floodgates open to below 1.20 perhaps. Anyone?

1.2 is a good target since it is in the middle of the currency boundaries of all time. (1.6 top, 0.8 bottom)

Nothing positive for the Euro, what may stop it from going down? It is a real issue now, not specualtors manipulating the currency. So downward is the natural path for Euro untill someone start to fix things there.
  • #650,464
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:03am Jun 1, 2012 7:03am
27 minutes

EUR, Guppy my day's fav.
  • #650,465
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:04am Jun 1, 2012 7:04am
Quoting mikeylp
Almost 80 for EU, 70 on EJ, 100 on UC (well it is actually reversed), and more than 500 for shorts in 5 different pairs and more than 10o dollar moves for Gold.
No greedy in trades, just TPs and candles.
and how many pips you lost long on eur this week?
  • #650,466
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:06am Jun 1, 2012 7:06am
Anyone trading NFP? And what's your strategy? Care to share?
  • #650,467
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:07am Jun 1, 2012 7:07am
Quoting xandi
and how many pips you lost long on eur this week?
only one, the last one which is combined in my calculation and it is 30pips
  • #650,468
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:08am Jun 1, 2012 7:08am
Newbie Question, if the NFP is positive the EUR/USD go up?
  • #650,469
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:09am Jun 1, 2012 7:09am
Quoting mikeylp
Almost 80 for EU, 70 on EJ, 100 on UC (well it is actually reversed), and more than 500 for shorts in 5 different pairs and more than 10o dollar moves for Gold.
No greedy in trades, just TPs and candles.
thanks i was just curious, it seems like a high risk thing to do
  • #650,470
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:10am Jun 1, 2012 7:10am
Quoting Jfk
Anyone trading NFP? And what's your strategy? Care to share?
siting on hand always gave good result
Mohan
  • #650,471
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:11am Jun 1, 2012 7:11am
Quoting mikeylp
only one, the last one which is combined in my calculation and it is 30pips
go long now if you want to add some pips to your week!!honnestly!
  • #650,472
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:11am Jun 1, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Logik
Newbie Question, if the NFP is positive the EUR/USD go up?
here is my strategy:

if NFP is positive
  • #650,473
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:12am Jun 1, 2012 7:12am
Quoting Logik
Newbie Question, if the NFP is positive the EUR/USD go up?
here is my strategy:

if NFP is positive
>>Buy USDCHF

if NFP is negative

>> Sell guppy


  • #650,474
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:12am Jun 1, 2012 7:12am
Quoting Logik
Newbie Question, if the NFP is positive the EUR/USD go up?
Strong US data would not be enough to reverse the euro. It also means less likelihood of QE3 which itself will be negative for market.
  • #650,475
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:12am Jun 1, 2012 7:12am
Quoting tightscalper
thanks i was just curious, it seems like a high risk thing to do
Are you using range as TF for your scalping (I assume you are since your nick states so)? you can use many opportunities and they are not time depended.
  • #650,476
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:12am Jun 1, 2012 7:12am
@logik

If nfp positive then eur/usd down.....
  • #650,477
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:13am Jun 1, 2012 7:13am
Quoting jayjb
I have 1.227x as the next major support, below would see the floodgates open to below 1.20 perhaps. Anyone?
2250 and 2200 have large options related bidding interest ahead of them (i'm starting to feel a bit like a broken record regarding options in forex...)

However, I fully expect these to break as we push down at least around 2100ish... but hell, if it's good for a penny it's good for a pound...why not just go all the way.

Let me say this... short of renewed evidence of greece making signifncant moves to accept austerity...AND spain finds an extra 500 billion laying around in between the cushions of the sofa... I don't see any reason we won't hit 1.1876 to retest the 3 year lows.
  • #650,478
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:13am Jun 1, 2012 7:13am
Quoting Jfk
Anyone trading NFP? And what's your strategy? Care to share?
here is my strategy:

if NFP is positive
>>Buy USDCHF

if NFP is negative

>> Sell guppy

  • #650,479
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:14am Jun 1, 2012 7:14am
Quoting Logik
Newbie Question, if the NFP is positive the EUR/USD go up?

if NFP is more than 130K the eurusd goes down...
  • #650,480
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:16am Jun 1, 2012 7:16am
I think the data is being cooked and the eur/usd will always go up..
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