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  • #650,441
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:02am Jun 1, 2012 6:02am
The pic above was yesterday, i believe.

X
  • #650,442
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:03am Jun 1, 2012 6:03am
Quoting forextraderx
In general I agree with you 100%. and, if this was any other day besides a pre-nfp day....where big players are mostly holding back taking trades until the number is released...I would say I would not consider such information anything other than information to explain why my short is moving slowly through 2300


But... it's the LACK of bigger players doing much right now that provides a window of opportunity, pre-NFP.

when NFP hits.... this opportunity will likely be erased in one second.

Does this make sense? or do you see reason to...
I scalp but I only trade in the daily trend. Pull backs are something I love. We are not talking about anyone being able to change the trend. I don't see how this really is going to change anything. I surely wouldn't panic about it... The Aussie market mad a new low on the eur today.... I mean it's almost laughable to buy it.. I cant see a sign to nor can anyone validate a buy to me. Other then it's hit this price it has to go up. That not validation. That to me is a poorly thought out trading plan. He might be on the money but I'm not staking my money on someone else's hunch unless I share it. Personally if i see it pulling back I'm going to go downto the beach and have a beer and come back and scalp it right back down to where it was. My experience is unless your a 100% sure of what's going to happen With the news it's better to come in with the move then get caught in there in the wrong direction. If your trading I would keep in mind it can go either way
  • #650,443
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:17am Jun 1, 2012 6:17am
Quoting tightscalper
I scalp but I only trade in the daily trend. Pull backs are something I love. We are not talking about anyone being able to change the trend. I don't see how this really is going to change anything. I surely wouldn't panic about it... The Aussie market mad a new low on the eur today.... I mean it's almost laughable to buy it.. I cant see a sign to nor can anyone validate a buy to me. Other then it's hit this price it has to go up. That not validation. That to me is a poorly thought out trading plan. He might be on the money but I'm not staking...
Hmmm... seems we have entirely different views of looking at the market.

For me, knowing that there is a block of buy order on the euro/usd between 1.2315 and 1.2300 that is at minimum $50 million dollar worth, but could be upwards of several hundered million is good enough reason for me to justify a buy.

one could take a 15 pip stop, and already have gotten 1:1 on the trade. I didn't take it because I'm on a personal "time out" for today (read my journal if u wanna know details)...

but, as far as "before the news", or "during the news" or "after the news"... .these are just phrases that we use to refer to certain times in the market because these times have unique characteristics.

"before news" often creates a lower liquidity marketplace...with fewer large players, and consequently less volatility and volume.

"during the news" is often an explosion of volatility, due to a massive influx of liquidity.

"after the news" is often a retracement and/or continuation of a move that the news acted as a catalyst to create.... particularly if the news has a great deal of potential to shift or alter the underlying driving forces behind the various large market participants.

In other words, each one is simply 3 seperate types of trading environments... and there are different strategies that can be effective in each one of them.

and during times where there are relatively few market participants... a buy order that is possibly in the 100 million+ price range is probably going to be very effective at stopping a downtrend....

at least for a little while... or until the market conditions change (which they will the moment the report comes out)

Nothings better or worse. Just different. I personally strive to understand these differences so I can best capitalize on any viable edge and opportunity that exist in the markets.

Most don't feel this way... and thats fine. it's a big market... we can all trade it our own way.

Even if one doesn't trade off this information though... if you held a short position right now... wouldn't YOU like to know if it was about to run into $100,000,000 of long eur/usd orders? I know I would...
  • #650,444
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:22am Jun 1, 2012 6:22am
Well...theres 2335... which would have been a first target for me.

it doesn't always work this way, but again... if someone knows the price at which will sit a massive order to buy... it can be used to create a substantial edge.
  • #650,445
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:27am Jun 1, 2012 6:27am
What is it doing???
I think it will test 2343 and then down again....
  • #650,446
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:30am Jun 1, 2012 6:30am
oh... and by the way... at 2250 and 2200...there are more such barrier options... and they are rumored to be much bigger than the one at 2300.

So, i'm thinking right now... I really am not sure how the market will take the NFP number... I can see pretty good reason to sell the euro no matter what.

that being said...I now know that at least some of the defensive buying around the 2300 level is gone.... so should the market decide to drop once NFP comes out, I'll be happy to bet that whatever buy ordres are not yet filled will get crushed by the sell orders....

but, around 2270-60ish... I'll start to watch very carefully, to see if we have the momentum to cut through a significant size of buy orders.... and if we do so... I'll almost 100% look to be out ahead of 2215... because considering how heavy short the market already is.... and it being friday, etc...etc...

I don't think that the market will have the juice to move down through 3 levels of defensive buying to the likely tune of hundreds of millions each.

This is in addition to any friday profit taking and/or regular, run of the mill "buy" orders that would hit the market regardless of the option levels.

Again, i'm not trading these myself today... but, this would be my thinking. look to get short above 2350, and target 2270ish.... possibly 2220ish...but no more. atleast not today.
  • #650,447
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:33am Jun 1, 2012 6:33am
Quoting nicogaglia
What is it doing???
I think it will test 2343 and then down again....
All I know for sure is that its staying above 2300 for now, and waiting for NFP.
This NFP will probably be more influencial than the last one too....

hey, at least today you can be pretty confident you will KNOW when the fireworks start eh? Usually we don't get that luxury in the markets.
  • #650,448
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:36am Jun 1, 2012 6:36am
G'day fellas.

As with forextraderx analysis, imho, we're at a cringe point. If the NFP comes at 175k or better, we might even see 121xx today. We'll see 1.2230 surely at those figures.

At 135k or less, we're expected to have a small bull run, let's say 100pips? It's gonna be tough. Either way, when the NFP's announced, stay out of the first 5m candle, cos' it's gonna be a fakey.

Only event I plan on trading today is the NFP release, although I had plenty of shorting opportunities.
Please, just slap me around if I'm being silly ...
  • #650,449
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:39am Jun 1, 2012 6:39am
Quoting forextraderx
Hmmm... seems we have entirely different views of looking at the market.

For me, knowing that there is a block of buy order on the euro/usd between 1.2315 and 1.2300 that is at minimum $50 million dollar worth, but could be upwards of several hundered million is good enough reason for me to justify a buy.

one could take a 15 pip stop, and already have gotten 1:1 on the trade. I didn't take it because I'm on a personal "time out" for today (read my journal if u wanna know details)...

but, as far as "before the news", or "during the...
its all guess work. if a pull back turns into a trend i will trade it. until then im sitting on my hands. you said 50 million? you certain about that? you seen the reliable numbers? i havent i have heard to many people screaming buy and seen it run them over. oh and i did say i like the knowledge about 1.23. just i cant see to much being trend breaking.. a pull back for a few days sure. but eur is in to much debt. cant see it coming good and a big move buy a few banks doesnt change the nature of the beast just stalls it. i trade in the trend and in the trend and in the trend only
  • #650,450
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:42am Jun 1, 2012 6:42am
Well... taht might be it for the defense.... though I would have expected a bit more movement upwards first...because once someone buys all that euro... they usually like to sell it for a profit.... and I doubht they would have been able to selll what was bought in order to halt the downward flow...

anyway.... i don't want to just drone on here. best suggestion would be to check out darkstar around here. Hopefully someone buys his book, so my first introduction to the guy isn't some Dear John ripping me for talking about market microstructure and how options influence order placement in the market.
  • #650,451
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:42am Jun 1, 2012 6:42am
Aren't the large commercials, the hedgers? In other words they are not concerned with profiting, but rather protecting their contracts? In other words they go long when the market drops, short when it raises..

Quoting forextraderx
Regarding COT.... here is a link i've found basically everything that I personally use with regards to COT analysis. Othe folks get really into it... not me. But, I will say without any hesitation that for long term, multi month, 500 -1000 pip + moves, there is no other method of analysis or indicator that compares with what can be gotten out of the COT report.

I use this site for cot info: http://www.timingcharts.com/

I pay extra special attention to the blue line.

here is a link that basically sums up exactly how I look at...
  • #650,452
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:46am Jun 1, 2012 6:46am
Quoting tightscalper
its all guess work. if a pull back turns into a trend i will trade it. until then im sitting on my hands. you said 50 million? you certain about that? you seen the reliable numbers? i havent i have heard to many people screaming buy and seen it run them over. oh and i did say i like the knowledge about 1.23. just i cant see to much being trend breaking.. a pull back for a few days sure. but eur is in to much debt. cant see it coming good and a big move buy a few banks doesnt change the nature of the beast just stalls it. i trade in the trend and...
Actually, I am pretty sure about that. for example...and i'm quoting right off a news print that came out 2 hours and 18 minutes ago:

"EUR/USD still battling with defensive bids ahead of 1.2300 (barriers), and given the current risk off gloom is largely euro-centric, it is a quite pervasive situation that is playing out here. USD/JPY is now within 10 ticks of 78.00...etc...etc... and cable has been hammered. Yet, we are still trading about 1.2300!"

that's part of it. i'm not going to retype the whole thing. SO... ya. i'm pretty darn frickin sure.
  • #650,453
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:47am Jun 1, 2012 6:47am
Quoting forextraderx
oh... and by the way... at 2250 and 2200...there are more such barrier options... and they are rumored to be much bigger than the one at 2300.

So, i'm thinking right now... I really am not sure how the market will take the NFP number... I can see pretty good reason to sell the euro no matter what.

that being said...I now know that at least some of the defensive buying around the 2300 level is gone.... so should the market decide to drop once NFP comes out, I'll be happy to bet that whatever buy ordres are not yet filled will get crushed...
i agree not today... friday is a bad day to get caught in a trade
  • #650,454
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:54am Jun 1, 2012 6:54am
Quoting attila
Aren't the large commercials, the hedgers? In other words they are not concerned with profiting, but rather protecting their contracts? In other words they go long when the market drops, short when it raises..
Ya... and i'll be the first to say i'm not a COT expert by any means.

All I know is... that article I linked seems to play out pretty much as it says it would... time and time again.

I could go into it a bit more in depth with you at some other point Attila, or maybe you can check it out and let me know more.

I just don't feel like getting too deep into another theoretical aspect that is as detailed, and that I know so little about, as COT.

But, just one point on that now that I am remembering... I believe because as you said, the commercials absorb the other side as they primarily hedge.

problem is, they have no intention of directly re-introducing waht they've bought into the market place.

So, essentially, they remove the readily available liquidity, and when the now massively over-positioned speculators try to cover... they other side of the deal has no desire to sell back...thus, there is a lack of liquidity on a level that affects the marketplace like no other "liquidity altering" situation can.

At least...that's my thoughts.... i have done no work to verify this, as COT is just a supporting tool of mine, and I see that...yep, blue line under zero and moving up?... big bear move coming. It happens enough I don't question too much how exactly it works.

X
  • #650,455
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:55am Jun 1, 2012 6:55am
I have 1.227x as the next major support, below would see the floodgates open to below 1.20 perhaps. Anyone?
  • #650,456
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:56am Jun 1, 2012 6:56am
[quote=forextraderx;5719860]
Quoting Jfk

A good portion of it yes.

But, i've not yet fouhnd a single service that really has everything...and that makes sense in fact, as different writers and reports and financial firms have different access to different order books, information, etc.

The best thing to do is surf the web, comb this site for info, and others.

twitter is a good place too.

make a list of every place you can find... and then just go through them all as the day begins.
Thanks for the info. I used to use Oanda's free newsfeed. Considering it's no cost it's a good deal, especially for a general technical picture. Key levels etc. I've also used MNI FX bullets service. Again, gave heads up on where big bids/ offers were sitting sometimes (often, as has been said, they are obvious-big figure, weekly H/L etc, etc). Useful at times but it didn't really give me an edge in the market realtime. CME volume (and volume profile, delta and market depth) coupled with sentiment and price behaviour is all I need these days. I think you can easily get overwhelmed with info. Saying that, I'll look into twitter. Cheers.
  • #650,457
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:57am Jun 1, 2012 6:57am
I´ve seen this before, with NFP we will have a boom of 100 pips up and rest of the day it will come down slowly to 2365...so it will make another cross/star/hammer whatever on daily....just like yesterday...
  • #650,458
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:58am Jun 1, 2012 6:58am
Quoting jayjb
I have 1.227x as the next major support, below would see the floodgates open to below 1.20 perhaps. Anyone?
Me too!
I've another short position without TP becouse I will follow the rally that is expecting us ;-)
  • #650,459
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:01am Jun 1, 2012 7:01am
Quoting tightscalper
how many pips you made long on eur/usd this week?
Almost 80 for EU, 70 on EJ, 100 on UC (well it is actually reversed), and more than 500 for shorts in 5 different pairs and more than 10o dollar moves for Gold.
No greedy in trades, just TPs and candles.
  • #650,460
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:02am Jun 1, 2012 7:02am
Quoting forextraderx
Actually, I am pretty sure about that. for example...and i'm quoting right off a news print that came out 2 hours and 18 minutes ago:

"EUR/USD still battling with defensive bids ahead of 1.2300 (barriers), and given the current risk off gloom is largely euro-centric, it is a quite pervasive situation that is playing out here. USD/JPY is now within 10 ticks of 78.00...etc...etc... and cable has been hammered. Yet, we are still trading about 1.2300!"

that's part of it. i'm not going to retype the whole thing. SO... ya. i'm pretty darn frickin...
you have already said there could be 50 mil to 100s of mil worth of bids... doesnt sound exact. nothing sounds certain and everyone already expects resistance around these numbers. so i dont get what your trying to stress?
you kinda trying to sound like your trying to convince yourself more then me. i dont trade out of trend. period. i dont doubt it will bounce of these levels. but your not taking the fundamentals into it. everyone is expecting this pair to drop, so it has sentiment as well. technicals and candle sticks all saying the trend is down.
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