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EUR/CHF

  • #7,301
  • May 31, 2012 2:16am May 31, 2012 2:16am
Quoting tim10167
normally better economies will be effected in 3-12 months afterward if its major trading partners(Europe) slows down. But in the Swiss and German case, it is also important to look at how asia especially China is doing. China's import has slowed dramatically since April. And if we look at the Swiss PMI April, it started turning below 50 (negative territory), and this was confirmed by Swiss' first quarter trade data where the new orders in some sectors like machinery was down "double" digits. Therefore iam looking forward to this Friday's Swiss...
Yes thanks for the explanaition iam also long because as you i think they will do something more
  • #7,302
  • May 31, 2012 2:27am May 31, 2012 2:27am
Quoting brinks
Yes thanks for the explanaition iam also long because as you i think they will do something more
I will also join this opinion.

If we would have the situation, that the market stays on his own between 1.2008-1.2012 it wouldn't be necessery for SNB to do anything.

But now they intervene, have an increase of their EUR position and a lot of CHF inflows.

They have to do something!!!
Be patient!
  • #7,303
  • May 31, 2012 2:29am May 31, 2012 2:29am
0716 GMT [Dow Jones] The Swiss National Bank's EUR/CHF floor is here to stay, as the central bank has the firepower to defend the floor, with its willingness to expand its balance sheet being the only constraint, and the costs of letting the floor crumble are too large, according to Deutsche Bank. "Markets should not be asking whether the SNB will let the floor go, but what alternative steps the SNB can take to reduce capital inflows if they accelerate," Deutsche Bank notes, identifying three possibilities: negative rates, residency-based capital controls and other capital controls. It says all options are too costly at the moment, and ongoing large-reserve accumulation might be the best option. "Then focus should be shifting to the SNB's immediate next step: the requirement to rebalance reserves away from euros, implying substantial selling of EUR vs USD, JPY, GBP, CAD and other liquid emerging-market currencies in the months to come." EUR/CHF trades at 1.2011. ([email protected])





the floor is not going up that's for sure..at least not next month


but pair will move up on every serious comment on introducing capital inflow taxes, and we could hear them next month...
  • #7,304
  • May 31, 2012 2:37am May 31, 2012 2:37am
Quoting zoran22
0716 GMT [Dow Jones] The Swiss National Bank's EUR/CHF floor is here to stay, as the central bank has the firepower to defend the floor, with its willingness to expand its balance sheet being the only constraint, and the costs of letting the floor crumble are too large, according to Deutsche Bank. "Markets should not be asking whether the SNB will let the floor go, but what alternative steps the SNB can take to reduce capital inflows if they accelerate," Deutsche Bank notes, identifying three possibilities: negative rates, residency-based capital...
Yes and it should go up before next months monetry meeting as shorts will cover incase they do bring in any other measures
  • #7,305
  • May 31, 2012 2:44am May 31, 2012 2:44am
KOF yesterday was unexpectedly good (bad for us on longs),
GDP today also unexpectedly good (bad for us on longs),
Tomorrow we have Retail Sales & PMI.... what do you guys think?
good?, bad?
  • #7,306
  • May 31, 2012 2:55am May 31, 2012 2:55am
Quoting alaneth
KOF yesterday was unexpectedly good (bad for us on longs),
GDP today also unexpectedly good (bad for us on longs),
Tomorrow we have Retail Sales & PMI.... what do you guys think?
good?, bad?
Retail sales will probably come in better than expected
  • #7,307
  • May 31, 2012 3:13am May 31, 2012 3:13am
Quoting zoran22
0716 GMT [Dow Jones] The Swiss National Bank's EUR/CHF floor is here to stay, as the central bank has the firepower to defend the floor, with its willingness to expand its balance sheet being the only constraint, and the costs of letting the floor crumble are too large, according to Deutsche Bank. "Markets should not be asking whether the SNB will let the floor go, but what alternative steps the SNB can take to reduce capital inflows if they accelerate," Deutsche Bank notes, identifying three possibilities: negative rates, residency-based capital...
Deutsche Bank notes: "ongoing large-reserve accumulation might be the best option." According to the latest data: last week SNB has to buy 13 billion Euro a week. With this increase rate of speed how long can they go??? They are printing wayyyyyy toooooo much Swiss Francs a week. With this speed, if u devide its foreign currency holdings growth rate to its GDP, its absurd!!! Thats why SNB is very nervous. Thats why we have already seen SNB's first stage "verbal" intervention last week, but it was a complete failure. I believe they will be forced to introduce the second stage intervention soon, but probably not by raising the cap, but by using strong policy tools. Well see
  • #7,308
  • May 31, 2012 3:14am May 31, 2012 3:14am
Quoting brinks
Retail sales will probably come in better than expected
agree, anything domestic will be strong, but not export and manufacturing, thats why they have to maintain the cap
  • #7,309
  • May 31, 2012 3:19am May 31, 2012 3:19am
Quoting tim10167
Deutsche Bank notes: "ongoing large-reserve accumulation might be the best option." According to the latest data: last week SNB has to buy 13 billion Euro a week. With this increase rate of speed how long can they go??? They are printing wayyyyyy toooooo much Swiss Francs a week. With this speed, if u devide its foreign currency holdings growth rate to its GDP, its absurd!!! Thats why SNB is very nervous. Thats why we have already seen SNB's first stage "verbal" intervention last week, but it was a complete failure. I believe they will be forced...

if you ask me solution to all this crisis is for SNB to buy euros against chf and with them buying spain, italy.. bonds

as a matter of fx reserves you can have as many you like, if inflation occurs snb can always hike Bank legal reserves to few supply of chf
  • #7,310
  • May 31, 2012 3:29am May 31, 2012 3:29am
Danthine: 'Given this state of
affairs, the SNB will continue to enforce the minimum exchange rate with utmost
determination and, should the economic outlook and the threat of deflation require, is
prepared to take further measures at any time.'

That's enough for me... I'll stay with this pair.
  • #7,311
  • May 31, 2012 3:41am May 31, 2012 3:41am
Quoting zoran22
if you ask me solution to all this crisis is for SNB to buy euros against chf and with them buying spain, italy.. bonds

as a matter of fx reserves you can have as many you like, if inflation occurs snb can always hike Bank legal reserves to few supply of chf
Haha, and let Swiss sink with Spain and Italy.....and make CHF worth nothing, and we all win.
  • #7,312
  • May 31, 2012 4:16am May 31, 2012 4:16am
A little bit of movement for a change
  • #7,313
  • May 31, 2012 4:18am May 31, 2012 4:18am
SNB moved floor to 2017
  • #7,314
  • May 31, 2012 4:20am May 31, 2012 4:20am
Quoting AdamG
SNB moved floor to 2017
and spent billions doing it
  • #7,315
  • May 31, 2012 4:20am May 31, 2012 4:20am
Quoting adamg
snb moved floor to 2017
snb's danthine on negative interest rates - - swedish example shows up to 50 bps may not be damaging
  • #7,316
  • May 31, 2012 4:21am May 31, 2012 4:21am
go back now to 1.201 to reload
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #7,317
  • May 31, 2012 4:30am May 31, 2012 4:30am
I think they have got something planned
  • #7,318
  • May 31, 2012 4:38am May 31, 2012 4:38am
Quoting brinks
I think they have got something planned
Thats why i said last weeks verbal intervention was only the first stage, second stage next, unless CHF inflow eases(not likely before Greek election), so, lets hope the inflow intensifies to force SNB implement second stage, policy intervention....
  • #7,319
  • May 31, 2012 4:51am May 31, 2012 4:51am
Quoting tim10167
Thats why i said last weeks verbal intervention was only the first stage, second stage next, unless CHF inflow eases(not likely before Greek election), so, lets hope the inflow intensifies to force SNB implement second stage, policy intervention....
I dont know a lot about swiss government etc

so are negative rates something the SNB can bring in instantly or does it need to be passed through government?
  • #7,320
  • May 31, 2012 4:59am May 31, 2012 4:59am
Quoting brinks
I dont know a lot about swiss government etc

so are negative rates something the SNB can bring in instantly or does it need to be passed through government?
Through government. If they introduce some sort of policy, we really have to look into the detail too, Swiss introduced a series of policies in the 70s to curb the inflow into CHF but failed..... so, we really have to wait and see, if the policy is a crap, i will close my position in the first spike with only very little profit maybe...Hope they will introduce a good policy.
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