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EUR/CHF

  • #7,281
  • May 30, 2012 3:04pm May 30, 2012 3:04pm
i can imagine whats goin 2 happen if we go below 1.2000 - so many stoplosses under that makes me want to short this below 1.2 quickie...stupid pair - no movement.


Rather trade with gbpCHF
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #7,282
  • May 30, 2012 3:53pm May 30, 2012 3:53pm
Quoting eqshack
i can imagine whats goin 2 happen if we go below 1.2000 - so many stoplosses under that makes me want to short this below 1.2 quickie...stupid pair - no movement.


Rather trade with gbpCHF
I've entered some sell stop orders around 1.1970. Hopefully they are executed when the floor breaks.
  • #7,283
  • May 30, 2012 3:56pm May 30, 2012 3:56pm
Has anyone posted this yet?

http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/10650.html

CNBC rumors that something is going on at SNB: 5 possibilities for us
  • #7,284
  • May 30, 2012 3:58pm May 30, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting Long EUR-CHF
I've entered some sell stop orders around 1.1970. Hopefully they are executed when the floor breaks.


maybe they will be executed and the pair will jump up....
  • #7,285
  • May 30, 2012 4:05pm May 30, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting hsun85
Has anyone posted this yet?

http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/10650.html

CNBC rumors that something is going on at SNB: 5 possibilities for us

the 1.10 peg possibility is absurd.
There is internal pressure on them to move the peg up and the move it down while stating for ?
Also, a lower peg will not have any credibility.
Common... These guys are really paid for this kind of bullshit?
  • #7,286
  • May 30, 2012 4:13pm May 30, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting rcrist
maybe they will be executed and the pair will jump up....
Ofcourse that is possible. Well.. what would you set as entry point? I expect IF floor breaks it will go down a several hundered pips.
  • #7,287
  • May 30, 2012 4:23pm May 30, 2012 4:23pm
I don't see any reason why the floor should not hold. Otherwise SNB would give another statement as of holding 1,20 whatever the cost.
So, its very dangerous to speculate against the interests of SNB and Switzerland with sell stops ;- )
If you follow the EUR/USD you see that the big drops down nearly every day don't really have an effect to EUR/CHF. So if the EUR/USD will rise up again for a longer period (maybe after reaching 1,20) EUR/CHF will also jump up and SNB will support that. In a falling EURO market an intervention would not be that effective, so they probably wait till EUR/USD and so on rises up again for a (soft) Intervention.
  • #7,288
  • May 30, 2012 4:30pm May 30, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting Napoleon180
I don't see any reason why the floor should not hold. Otherwise SNB would give another statement as of holding 1,20 whatever the cost.
So, its very dangerous to speculate against the interests of SNB and Switzerland with sell stops ;- )
If you follow the EUR/USD you see that the big drops down nearly every day don't really have an effect to EUR/CHF. So if the EUR/USD will rise up again for a longer period (maybe after reaching 1,20) EUR/CHF will also jump up and SNB will support that. In a falling EURO market an intervention would not be that effective,...
Why do you think sell stops are dangerous? I expect SNB to hold 1,20. But if for some reason the peg breaks it want to have some sell orders executed for the way down. And for the worst case when SBN might lower the peg to 1,10. SL around 1,2010.
  • #7,289
  • May 30, 2012 4:43pm May 30, 2012 4:43pm
certainly, it wont go less than 1.20, upward movement is very likely and SNB doesn't care about sl or sell or buy stops, they need to move the peg up because of their GDP, CPI and ..., and they will. It is the matter of when. Tomorrow, I hope.
  • #7,290
  • May 30, 2012 5:52pm May 30, 2012 5:52pm
anyone read this?

http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/10650.html
  • #7,291
  • May 30, 2012 6:10pm May 30, 2012 6:10pm
Quoting mjomha
anyone read this?

http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/10650.html
And then?
  • #7,292
  • May 30, 2012 6:37pm May 30, 2012 6:37pm
Quoting rcrist
the 1.10 peg possibility is absurd.
There is internal pressure on them to move the peg up and the move it down while stating for ?
Also, a lower peg will not have any credibility.
Common... These guys are really paid for this kind of bullshit?
Iam with u, the question is very very simple.... If SNB lowers the cap to EURCHF$1.10,the market will still want to drive it down to $1 or even $0.9,so whats the point lowering it now? If SNB wants to lower it, they will do it later after the crises settles down.

Therefore the best solution for SNB now i recon is not to move the cap anywhere and use policy tools to ease the problem.
  • #7,293
  • May 30, 2012 6:41pm May 30, 2012 6:41pm
SNB credibility would be crap if the peg is lowered. The longs are helping them defend 1.20.
  • #7,294
  • May 30, 2012 6:46pm May 30, 2012 6:46pm
Quoting Napoleon180
If you follow the EUR/USD you see that the big drops down nearly every day don't really have an effect to EUR/CHF. So if the EUR/USD will rise up again for a longer period (maybe after reaching 1,20) EUR/CHF will also jump up and SNB will support that. In a falling EURO market an intervention would not be that effective, so they probably wait till EUR/USD and so on rises up again for a (soft) Intervention.
The drops on Eur/Usd are from the aftermath of the SNB acquiring all those Euros from Eur/Chf. They've been hedging this risky Euros for US Dollars by selling Eur/Usd on rallies (via BIS and such).
  • #7,295
  • May 31, 2012 12:55am May 31, 2012 12:55am
GDP 2% yoy against a expected 0.9%

Swiss data keeps coming in much better than expected
  • #7,296
  • May 31, 2012 1:13am May 31, 2012 1:13am
Quoting brinks
GDP 2% yoy against a expected 0.9%

Swiss data keeps coming in much better than expected
These are old datas, but i think swiss domestic economy will be ok through out the whole year, however, i expect its export in the comming quarters will slow down considerably according to the datas we got so far. Swiss has a good economy but I dont see how it wont be effect by the huge slowdown in Europe. We will see this effect in the near future.
  • #7,297
  • May 31, 2012 1:21am May 31, 2012 1:21am
Quoting tim10167
These are old datas, but i think swiss domestic economy will be ok through out the whole year, however, i expect its export in the comming quarters will slow down considerably according to the datas we got so far. Swiss has a good economy but I dont see how it wont be effect by the huge slowdown in Europe. We will see this effect in the near future.
Hi yes i agree it should be affected but how is the GDP figure old data it was released today.

also last times were both revised upwards
  • #7,298
  • Edited 2:17am May 31, 2012 1:54am | Edited 2:17am
Quoting brinks
Hi yes i agree it should be affected but how is the GDP figure old data it was released today.

also last times were both revised upwards
The GDP data was first quarter, and now we know that the world major economies(EU USA China) had a small pop upward in first quarter and went down deeper starting in the second quarter.

normally better economies will be effected in 3-12 months afterward if its major trading partners(Europe) slows down. But in the Swiss and German case, it is also important to look at how asia especially China is doing. China's import has slowed dramatically since April. And if we look at the Swiss PMI April, it started turning below 50 (negative territory), and this was confirmed by Swiss' first quarter trade data where the new orders in some sectors like machinery was down "double" digits. Therefore iam looking forward to this Friday's Swiss May PMI to further confirm Swiss' export slow down.

The thing with Swiss is that like Germany, it has a robust domestic economy to offset any future weakness in export (for now). Thats why we saw recently better Swiss KOF (leading indicator, has a bias towards domestic economy other than export) but bad PMI. Thus, I really dont see the SNB raising its $1.20 cap in the near future. However, because few important export sectors are already suffering, SNB will have to defend its $1.20 cap. I guess thats why Jordan said in his latest statement that he will defend the cap but will not raise the cap.

Iam currently long the pair, only because i feel SNB is about to do (and have to) something dramatic to stop the huge EUR inflow started in the past two weeks. It is becomming very risky for Swiss to print this gigantic amount of Swiss Franc every week, they have to stop it in these few weeks.

If miracle happens and the Swiss export becomes robust again later on this year (very unlikely),and givin the robust domestic economy, I think the floor will break.
  • #7,299
  • May 31, 2012 1:55am May 31, 2012 1:55am
Quoting holmes
And then?
This guy is always pessimistic against EUR/CHF long!

This weekend Jordan reconfirmed that SNB will hold the peg at 1.20 even in a difficult enviroment!

Why should they lower the peg then or change it into a basket peg?

The credibility of the SNB will be destroyed forever.
I think, they will come up with some additional measures to support the peg and to reduce the inflow of capital into CHF.
  • #7,300
  • May 31, 2012 2:00am May 31, 2012 2:00am
Quoting tim10167
normally better economies will be effected in 3-12 months afterward if its major trading partners(Europe) slows down. But in the Swiss and German case, it is also important to look at how asia especially China is doing. China's import has slowed dramatically since April. And if we look at the Swiss PMI April, it started turning below 50 (negative territory), and this was confirmed by Swiss' first quarter trade data where the new orders in some sectors like machinery was down "double" digits. Therefore iam looking forward to this Friday's Swiss...
I feel better, if SNB has a higher EUR/CHF exposure than a lower one.

With a reduced position the loss would be lower for SNB if there will be a break in the peg.

If their position is higher the potential to loose big money is also high so they have to do whatever they can to secure the peg!!!
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