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  • #648,101
  • May 27, 2012 3:45pm May 27, 2012 3:45pm
Quoting forextraderx
I expect this to stall out somewhere between 2595-2625... depending on when and how it does this (if it does this)... i'm thinking easy short back to approx 1.2555ish, but 1.2570 should be a slam dunk.

Now I guess we'll just see if it can get that high first before retracing to 1.2555ish

X
You make A LOT of assumptions.. Have you see the movie Broken Arrow?

Assumption is the mother of all fuck ups.

You will need a lot of luck to make it in this business.
  • #648,102
  • May 27, 2012 3:46pm May 27, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting forextraderx
Ya... funny you should say... I'm long right now, and that is my ideal take profit point. I'm really hoping we do get there in another 1.5 hrs... would be a nice start to the week.

X
Well. if you spent some time to look at my recent post, you will know that I am in the same boat with you. I just don't like when retailers lost their money like this. How many here on FF is taking long beside you, me and someone who just delete his post. Not many I think.
  • #648,103
  • May 27, 2012 3:50pm May 27, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting Passerby
Well. if you spent some time to look at my recent post, you will know that I am in the same boat with you. I just don't like when retailers lost their money like this. How many here on FF is taking long beside you, me and someone who just delete his post. Not many I think.

Now to where ? any explanation for that up move ??
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #648,104
  • May 27, 2012 3:51pm May 27, 2012 3:51pm
Quoting Passerby
Well. if you spent some time to look at my recent post, you will know that I am in the same boat with you. I just don't like when retailers lost their money like this. How many here on FF is taking long beside you, me and someone who just delete his post. Not many I think.
so short it is then!!
  • #648,105
  • May 27, 2012 3:54pm May 27, 2012 3:54pm
If cloggie is long then we are going up for sure. Retrace at least. Man knows what's up. Shame they blocked his twitter account.
  • #648,106
  • May 27, 2012 3:55pm May 27, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting Tedge UK
so short it is then!!

Now thats what I really like... a friendly game of ping pong. Never was much a marathon runner anyway... as far as I'm concerned, the market is free to bounce in this 100ish pip range for the next 2 days.

X
  • #648,107
  • May 27, 2012 3:55pm May 27, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting forextraderx
Resent... am I correct to think that you are short E/U right now?
i just entered short coz i see no reason why it should have jumped :X
  • #648,108
  • May 27, 2012 3:58pm May 27, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting Bosphorus
If cloggie is long then we are going up for sure. Retrace at least. Man knows what's up. Shame they blocked his twitter account.
Mind you cloggie is scalping these days he said it many times before so long may be 20 pips for him
swing it!
  • #648,109
  • May 27, 2012 4:01pm May 27, 2012 4:01pm
Nice gap.. +50 pips
  • #648,110
  • May 27, 2012 4:01pm May 27, 2012 4:01pm
EUR up cos of greek polls. not a teckie thingy
  • #648,111
  • May 27, 2012 4:07pm May 27, 2012 4:07pm
H1 is having bullish macd and RSI divergence, but then... it already did friday prior to the new low and longer TFs are still bearish
  • #648,112
  • May 27, 2012 4:07pm May 27, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting Bosphorus
If cloggie is long then we are going up for sure. Man knows what's up. Shame they blocked his twitter account.
I think it's really going to depend on how price acts around 2600-2625, and then how far it falls back during the london session (assuming it is around 1.2600+ when the london session is starting)

I see it like this, there was a massive push into the previous large barrier option at 1.2500. Also, some savvy traders could very likley have been using the market sell orders that were targeting 1.2500 to lighten up on their positions.

The rate of descent has slowed, and E/U ran just BARELY below several lows of varying significance from wed, thurs, and friday, and then bounced upwards with greater momentum. This indicates buyers entering the marketplace, and after such a large magnitude selloff, that is no surprise at all. And eventually, if the market fails to break down anew... the sellers will run out of orders to fill....

Last but not least, we are barely sitting above a broken trendline... it still could go either way, but it price moves up... particularly if the stops that many were likley gunning for around the 2600+ level are hit, and yet we fail to match fridays low.... and we see longer green momentum candles pushing towards the 2600 level...

if this happens, we are likly go move straight to 2680-85ish... and then we'll see who has what intentions (due to holiday probably being over by then)

My real question at this point is this.... The move up that has occured in the premarket is likley either a push towards liquidity (weak stops), or it is a short squeeze.

If the former... Price action will say so... and it is likley we will retest the friday low.

If the latter... then this market is actually much more scared of sitting short, and is starting to get desperate. If it is indeed more motivated by a fear of loss than a desire for more profits...we will likley retest 2680ish tonight.

Guess we'll all find out eh?

X
  • #648,113
  • May 27, 2012 4:16pm May 27, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting 2046
H1 is having bullish macd and RSI divergence, but then... it already did friday prior to the new low and longer TFs are still bearish
H4 showed it on friday prior to NY close which is a small prove of my theory abour relation between Friday bull/bear divergence and gap up/down on sunday evening. I post it in EUR analisys thread two weeks ago and was laughted at. Well one thing I learned about it is it has to happen on higher TF. I do not now how divergence behave when facing a gap.
swing it!
  • #648,114
  • May 27, 2012 4:16pm May 27, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting forextraderx
I think it's really going to depend on how price acts around 2600-2625, and then how far it falls back during the london session (assuming it is around 1.2600+ when the london session is starting)

I see it like this, there was a massive push into the previous large barrier option at 1.2500. Also, some savvy traders could very likley have been using the market sell orders that were targeting 1.2500 to lighten up on their positions.

The rate of descent has slowed, and E/U ran just BARELY below several lows of varying significance from wed, thurs,...
One thing for sure is that you type faster than me. I am considering the first scenario, if it was a short squeeze I do not think it will happen before london. If someone with massive short position want to cover some of theirs, it will be logical to do it when there is liquidity around. But I might be wrong.
  • #648,115
  • May 27, 2012 4:17pm May 27, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting scalperdebes
EUR up cos of greek polls. not a teckie thingy
Exactly! but i have to tell you that all these polls are bullshit! anti austerity party will win 17/6. Corruption polls companies tells lies about the results, they predicted 6/5 results totally wrong! the same will happen 17/6
  • #648,116
  • May 27, 2012 4:22pm May 27, 2012 4:22pm
Euro has broken some lows and a Long Term trendline which goes back to 2001. If it had bounced off of these lows I would be telling a different story.... but it has broken them time and time again.

Last week was a long awaited fall lower. The fundamentals (which I usually try to ignore) have been pointing lower for quite some time.

The only thing I'm curious about today is..... what is the market going to do with this US Holiday. USA banks will be closed. Could be a prime time to make another move lower while no one is looking.

I gotta trade the charts and wait for PA to show its hand, but I'll not be taking the day off today just because it's a Holiday.

Looking for Euro shorts mixed with AUD longs during times of retrace.
  • #648,117
  • May 27, 2012 4:22pm May 27, 2012 4:22pm
Now that I'm thinking this through more carefully.... I'm not seeing a very realistic situation for the E/U to sell off today.

Low liquidity day would favor the a continued move up (better to push into stops on the cheap, when there are fewer bargain hunters to compete with)... also, if the market runs stops on the downside, it would be yet another opportunity for a bargin hunt...except, a bargin hunt to fill buy orders.

And who, knowing today is a low liquidity day, and that low liquidity zones in the market are generally filled as size returns... would want to be the orders that power the market downward? particularly when the whole world is short the euro now....

And one thing I've noticed today... I suddenly am seeing little hints all over the news about "record shorts", and some of the more informed folks seem disinterested in building a bigger short position here. If they larger players aren't looking to sell at this point below 1.2600ish....

it means we need to at least get to 1.2600ish. but, if we do, by then, we will have broken a significant trendline, coupled with the 1.2500 level was "THE LEVEL" to hit for at least another 100+ pips below that...

and last but not least, I hear some rumors that germany may ease their stance, taht greece has a pro austerity party in the lead....

just the mere rumor of this is better than last week, and with the market as short at as it is, behaving as it is, on a low liquidity day, with no "new" bad news....even the slightest chance of good news is enough to cause a few nervous shorts to cover...


I could be totally wrong... but i'm feeling better about holding long now, and I may look to get longer as the day rolls on.

We'll see.

X
  • #648,118
  • May 27, 2012 4:22pm May 27, 2012 4:22pm
here is the EA statement of last week until market closed at friday night.

i know some people are intersted in how the EA will continue so if nobody mind i add it in here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip EAstatement.zip   184 KB | 445 downloads
  • #648,119
  • May 27, 2012 4:22pm May 27, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting tomspin
H4 showed it on friday prior to NY close which is a small prove of my theory abour relation between Friday bull/bear divergence and gap up/down on sunday evening. I post it in EUR analisys thread two weeks ago and was laughted at. Well one thing I learned about it is it has to happen on higher TF. I do not now how divergence behave when facing a gap.
The problem with divergence is that it does not work very well in trending markets. Take the 9th of May on H4 which is what you might refer to... RSI and MACD indicated divergence but it did not play out.
  • #648,120
  • May 27, 2012 4:24pm May 27, 2012 4:24pm
Some median lines
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: median line.JPG Size: 87 KB
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