EURUSD

If these gaps are major support/Resistances, Pa would either break them or bounce from these points................. in both the cases they are more likely to be touched. This is what gap players play with or without knowing this fact.

I agree that they can act as S/R, but not because of the gap.

Take the second one of the gaps you have circled:




It's a strong move down, the candles are hidden because our brokers are closed, however IMHO this is a valid supply level regardless of the gap down, we just can't see the candles.

The first one circled was closed due to intervention from the SNB, and it ignored the gap as a resistance and kept going on to a stronger resistance level above due to the force of the SNB's actions. Perhaps had the gap closed naturally, it would have acted as a resistance level.

As I say, I agree that these apparent gaps can work like support or resistance, but not all are created equal and there is no guarantee that they will close (which I believe we agree on ). I worry that some people assume that they must close for some reason, but the logic escapes me and I think it's a dangerous strategy.

I agree. This is what I said earlier. These gaps may or may not get filled. It again depends what one calls a fill. Pa re-testing a resistance doesn't mean it will go right upto the point from where an overnight break started.

With all those one billion crazy trading methods, let gap trading be the one.

Have a good weekend Chicky

Gaps are closed because it's an expectation, a self fulfilling prophecy. When everyone with money expects something to happen and does the same thing and trade based on that. The market is just concious Thought the only thing that affects the impact of the thoughts are how much money each individual behind them has. Hence being able to move the market in the direction of their own ideas/ concept of what should happen. Trading gaps are based on expectations and common ones that's why they so often close and bounce of the level of resistance. It's psychologically expected by a massive group Abe that's all trading is.

I like you F defiantly on my to learn from list

Yes just below those Oct 28 low. I think the next demand area just not worth it, too small risk reward ratio for such trade. I am just taking chance here, won't hurt me much if this trade fail. BTW, there is no reason to hold my long if she moves down more than that and I will admit my loss if that happened. It's just another trade and I won't put too much thinking to over complicate thinks. Just sharing my ideas here, not trying to be a prophet or "one who know all" like many around.

I disagree with you here Tight... Although your partially correct, I think there is a larger, more important concept at play besides the "self fulfilling" aspect of it. It has to do with liquidity... or more importantly, degrees of commitment.

During the "pre market" session... if a trader, be it a bank, a hedge fund, soverigen state, or big retail trader, places an order in the market for $X amount... because of relatively "thin market" condition that exists before Asia really opens.... the market will move a greater range as it absorbs the order for $X than it would for an order of the same size...say, when the U.S. session first starts.

This may not seem like it matters, but I believe it matters a great deal. The market always moves to the highest concentration of orders, because it can move no other way. This is similar to water always flowing downhill (because it can move no other way).

during the "premarket" session, the only thing that prevents the "weekend gap" from being 5,000 pips every weekend is because as it moves away from the closing price on Friday, it eventually hits a block of limit orders that are greater in number than the market orders of the current "premarket traders" who are contributing to the premarket move (be it long or short).

Once price in this market reaches this point... the point where it can no longer move past, because there are too many limit orders to absorb the current market orders.... it will stall, and eventually reverse.

And why then does it so often stall again as it "fills the gap"? ie: reaches the price it closed at on friday? because around that friday close price was a comparatively large amount of liquidity, with orders being placed and filled as friday came to a close. And since for every buyer there is a seller, that means for every single transaction that occured near the close of market on friday, SOMEONE is losing. If not money, then they are losing opportunity. And therefore, when price reaches the area where a relatively large amount of trading took place, including current losing participants who would love to get out near BE, and winning participants who have stops near and around their Break even point....

it's this area around friday's close that will likely have a fairly dense concentration of orders.

Since there are relatively few participants in the "premarket" hours.... the move generated premarket...aka... "the gap" represents fewer commitments, and therefore, there are less orders to obstruct market momentum. Sure, some of the premarket participants will put new orders in, either stops or targets or what have you, but they will be relatively fewer orders for the market to work through compared to the premarket low (where buyers absorbed all willing sellers) and the friday close (where there was most recently a higher level of liquidity, and more transactions than the premarket movements). It will "ping pong" between these two levels until one or the other runs out of orders opposing the market flow... and at that point, the market will move higher past the friday close, or lower below the premarket low (depending on whichever side runs out of limit orders to fill first)

So, price will often move up until it gets close to the closing price on friday, where the market finally reaches a higher density of orders it must work through. If it fails, it will start to fall back, very likely near the price it already established as the "premarket low", because that is where there were enough orders to absorb the sellers a few hours ago...and therefore, there is likely still more orders waiting to buy again.

There is much more I could say regarding this, but I think it illustrates a very important, fundamental point. The market retraces back through the premarket move to fill the "weekend gap" not so much because it is a self fulfilling prophecy (though, there IS an element of this, just not the biggest element), but more because there is a currently insurmountable amount of orders in opposition to the move down right near the low of the premarket move.... and if price moves up, it will likely find a relatively high density of offers near the friday close (Longs who are losing who are getting out around BE, as well as new sellers), and there are usually more of THOSE orders at the friday close price, than there are of premarket orders to break though the friday close price.

Think of it as a thin, low density liquid or gas being "caged in" by a more dense material on either side of it. the thin, low density material will remain "trapped" until one of the more dense materials "evaoprates"... and finally becomes the least dense of all...and can no longer trap the liquid/gas in the middle.

The market moves to orders... like water moves downhill. It's the nature of the beast.

And this is the most compelling reason for gaps of all sorts filling.

X

hey im in touch with god

Hi,

who is invisible?

You can choose ''invisible mode'' via profile options

But you yourself mentioned the key levels of the gap... And even though
You may not of realized it you kinda confirmed the idea that people place orders around these two key levels. I'm not saying that this idea moves the market but it's why people trade of these levels because they are pretty sure it's going to happen. Thats why it is so common for the gaps to be filled, an easily identifiable set of perimeters to place orders from. I am not positive if I said the sole reason is because it's a self fulfilling prophecy. If I did that wasnt how I ment it to come across I was just trying to answer an earlyier question about why gaps fill/ retrace. In most cases it would have to have a lot to do with the fore mentioned. 1 its expected 2 easily visable resistance and support levels. 3 as you mentioned people trying to cut loses or get in for good prices. 4 mass psychology. Masses move the market if everyone else is doing it you want to do it as well. You just want to be one of the first

eur/usd:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/live-e...-rates/EURUSD/

Hello Mike, I would like to know where i can buy your course precision trading?

Thanks

the important thing is the price when most broker opened. where most people can start trading. pre-market and those attached to live server which don't disconnect get to benefit from weekend and having a earlier opening than most broker.

When one of my kids ask me, "What are you typing?" Whenever I respond to somebody's post on here, I tell them that I'm talking to invisible people. You should see the looks on their faces. And some of the invisible people have vouches. They just look at me like I'm crazy. LOL.

Lots of views and all very interesting. The big players knows where the buy or sell orders are so that ultimately is how it is. If there is no liquidity they will move the maket in a tight range and the those orders will be hit and stops will also be taken out, thus liquidity will be introduced because those that are losing will want to get back in and cover their losses. Now, I think that EURUSD will get to 1.2457 before the Greek elections. The party that wins will be the ones who are pro austerity. Then after that,the EURO will go to at least 1.33-1.34 level. Just my opinion from looking on the monthly chart.

hi

so ,there will be a gaps on eur/gbp or all eur/xxx pairs . if like gbp/usd or xxx/usd still not move a pips till market open monday ?

true and possible but in the same time if no goverment will be formed then 1.19 it's also a possibility