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  • #32,521
  • May 26, 2012 2:01am May 26, 2012 2:01am
Quoting rekon67
Observation 21-26 May 12 and Forecast for the Next Possible Points.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,522
  • May 26, 2012 2:03am May 26, 2012 2:03am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hey Ricky! a retest?
whattt susie
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #32,523
  • May 26, 2012 2:04am May 26, 2012 2:04am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hey Ricky a Double top?
whottt yummyy
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #32,524
  • May 26, 2012 2:53am May 26, 2012 2:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
My View

Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just pointing...
Great analysis PT. Have a great weekend.
  • #32,525
  • May 26, 2012 3:01am May 26, 2012 3:01am
Theresa May: we'll stop migrants if euro collapses

The Government is drawing up plans for emergency immigration controls to curb an influx of Greeks and other European Union residents if the euro collapses, the Home Secretary discloses today.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/...y_2230769b.jpg Theresa May says "work is ongoing" to restrict European immigration in the event of a financial collapse Photo: Getty








http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/...0_1770643j.jpg
By Robert Winnett, and James Kirkup

10:00PM BST 25 May 2012


In an interview in The Daily Telegraph, Theresa May says “work is ongoing” to restrict European immigration in the event of a financial collapse.

People from throughout the EU, with the exception of new member countries such as Romania and Bulgaria, are able to work anywhere in the single market.

However, there are growing concerns that if Greece was forced to leave the euro, it would effectively go bankrupt and millions could lose their jobs and consider looking for work abroad.

The crisis could spread quickly to other vulnerable countries such as Spain, Ireland and Portugal, although Britain is regarded as a safe haven because it is outside the single currency.

Details of the contingency plan emerged as the euro crisis deepened further yesterday.



Catalonia was forced to turn to the Spanish government for a bail-out and speculation mounted that Bankia, the troubled Spanish bank, would need £15  billion in state support. European markets fell again as the euro dropped in value against other major currencies.
The Home Secretary says that the Government is already “looking at the trends” to determine whether immigration from beleaguered European countries is increasing. While there is no evidence of increased migration at present, she adds that it is “difficult to say how it is going to develop in coming weeks”.
On the subject of whether emergency immigration controls are under consideration, Mrs May says: “It is right that we do some contingency planning on this [and] that is work that is ongoing.”
The introduction of immigration controls within the EU would undermine a key part of the single market. However, it is allowed in “exceptional” circumstances under European law.
Controls are most likely to include restrictions on people seeking to work in Britain, who could be made to apply for visas.
Several European governments introduced temporary immigration controls when countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic joined the EU, to stop an influx of workers. France also threatened to reintroduce passport controls at the Italian border following an influx of Libyan and Tunisian refugees during the Arab Spring.
David Cameron has already said that Britain has made contingency plans to deal with the break-up of the single currency.
They involve preparations to evacuate Britons from Greece if civil disobedience spirals out of control, and for banks to take steps to protect
  • #32,526
  • May 26, 2012 3:25am May 26, 2012 3:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
My View

Well it’s been an interesting week.
sentiment repainting...
  • #32,527
  • Edited 4:01am May 26, 2012 3:26am | Edited 4:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
My View

Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just pointing...
nice work PT.like popper i am wondering and thinking what might be wrong with the above theses.let me think over it for sometime and see if i can come with antitheses for this. its true that trend line is broken on monthly but its another 3-4days before the candle closes and as u know trend lines are a tricky business and it might turn out to be just a spike to take out all the bulls and trap for the patient bears
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #32,528
  • May 26, 2012 3:32am May 26, 2012 3:32am
People always expect with a quick gain in this business,while there is no 100% sure thing In Trading World,

Without a Good Mindset/Attitude,Right edge,Proper money management system/risk reward strategy,In the end our Mr.market will punish them badly and they will ended with margin call,Its a matter of time only

Patient needed,if the price keep going down it doesnt mean we should start buying,if the price keep going up it doesnt mean we should keep selling

Human keep fails in this line and this cycle never ends,because human nature is hard to change
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #32,529
  • May 26, 2012 3:47am May 26, 2012 3:47am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Great analysis PT. Have a great weekend.
You too Swissy. Get lots of rest. It's going to be an interesting week.

Are you still holding the E/J trade? I can re-affirm the target is still 98.66 area, but in light of my updated view on E/U, it may even head to double bottom at 97.03 area.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,530
  • May 26, 2012 3:48am May 26, 2012 3:48am
Quoting FXMindset
People always expect with a quick gain in this business,while there is no 100% sure thing In Trading World,

Without a Good Mindset/Attitude,Right edge,Proper money management system/risk reward strategy,In the end our Mr.market will punish them badly and they will ended with margin call,Its a matter of time only

Patient needed,if the price keep going down it doesnt mean we should start buying,if the price keep going up it doesnt mean we should keep selling

Human keep fails in this line and this cycle never ends,because human nature is hard...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,531
  • May 26, 2012 3:48am May 26, 2012 3:48am
Quoting drzakir123
nice work PT.like popper i am wondering and thinking what might be wrong with the above theses.let me think over it for sometime and see if i can come with antitheses for this.
I welcome your anti-thesis.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,532
  • May 26, 2012 4:51am May 26, 2012 4:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
I welcome your anti-thesis.
to start with its true that trend line is broken on monthly but its another 3-4days before the candle closes and as u know trend lines are a tricky business and it might turn out to be just a spike to take out all the bulls and trap for the patient bears.2 as u said manufacturing is much better in US than euro area that means they have to sell and export it to the world which need a weaker dollar.3,gold is in correction and historically it is much better hedge against protecting wealth and purchasing power against paper money just think how much dollar has depreciated against gold in last 80 yrs. (it was 32 dollar/ounce in 1930 iesince then 46 times] 4, the real risk in todays world is FED and ECB and they are bigger than any institutional trader and i believe they are in the business of trapping all the institutional trader.if u ask who i want to go with institutional or FED/ECB junta i am always going to go with FED,as they r the smart money in this business.5,what happening with greek is just posturing and a warning to others to behave,greeks for that matters spain and italy are nothing in the bigger scheme of things.

let me go over my profile charts,point and figure and median line analysis let me see where they r going to take me with target and entries i promise i will post them sometime in future. by the way contgratulation to u as u have already done a good job with fibonacci,trend lines,channels,moving averages,will useless and time wasting for me to go over the same material.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #32,533
  • May 26, 2012 6:40am May 26, 2012 6:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
You too Swissy. Get lots of rest. It's going to be an interesting week.

Are you still holding the E/J trade? I can re-affirm the target is still 98.66 area, but in light of my updated view on E/U, it may even head to double bottom at 97.03 area.

Yes. I'm going to ride it out with you bud. Let me know if we should move TP.
  • #32,534
  • May 26, 2012 7:13am May 26, 2012 7:13am
Quoting drzakir123
to start with its true that trend line is broken on monthly but its another 3-4days before the candle closes and as u know trend lines are a tricky business and it might turn out to be just a spike to take out all the bulls and trap for the patient bears.2 as u said manufacturing is much better in US than euro area that means they have to sell and export it to the world which need a weaker dollar.3,gold is in correction and historically it is much better hedge against protecting wealth and purchasing power against paper money just think how...
Thanks for your response but you haven't really made a case to go long. All you've done is highlight the risks that I had already mentioned... CB intervention.

The Fed is extremely unlikely to intervene unless the US unemployment rate increases. Based on the last 4 weeks of jobless claims reports, that's not mathematically possible right now.

As for the ECB, they are not about to launch any additional LTRO scheme until they have had enough time to evaluate the impact of LTRO 1 & 2. The most they could do at the moment to stimulate the economy is cut rates, but that would tend to be Euro negative anyway. Remember the EZ needs a lower Euro and they need it yesterday.

One risk I have not mentioned because it did not cross my mind at the time is a step-up of the liquidation of EZ owned foreign assets and the repatriation of the proceeds from USD into EUR. Although I don't believe that any such step-up would boost the Euro. More so it would just slow the decline.

I am looking forward to your technical analysis which supports a case to buy the Euro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,535
  • May 26, 2012 7:19am May 26, 2012 7:19am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Yes. I'm going to ride it out with you bud. Let me know if we should move TP.
When price reaches 98.7, I am going to take another 25% of the profit and let the remaining 25% ride until double bottom... unless something changes in the meantime.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #32,536
  • May 26, 2012 8:03am May 26, 2012 8:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
My View

Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just pointing...
Hello PT,

I agree with your analysis. I have been bearish on the Euro for a long time now. In fact, I expect we´ll reach parity in the next year.

However, I am concerned in the very short term of the probability of a strong, temporary rebound happening, possibly in the next two weeks. My concern is technical in nature and it involves the weekly gap at 1.3080. There has been no attempt to close it since it occurred. I have looked at the weekly data all the way back to 1993 and there has not been a single instance of a gap remaining open. In total, there have been 9 weekly gaps since then. Three where closed the second week, another three on the third week, two on the fifth and one on the seventh. A weekly gap is like a black hole, exerting a strong pull on price until it is closed. More likely than not, the gap should be closed before continuing the move south. Also, before leaving the 1.20s for good, there should be a test of 1.30, which also happens to be the broken neckline of the head & shoulders pattern in the daily chart and the 61.8% Fib retracement of the current drop. Price spent a lot of time in the 1.30s. It would surprise me if it were to move under 1.20 without a final strong test (shakeout) of the 1.30 psychological number.

Again, even though I am totally with you on the end result, I feel there is unfinished work up above. It just seems way too easy...

I´d like to hear your view regarding this.

Thanks. Take care.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #32,537
  • May 26, 2012 8:03am May 26, 2012 8:03am
[quote=PipTrapper;5701935]My View

Hello PipTrapper,

many thanks from me too for your analysis and all the other good work.
As a beginner in FX and in this thread may I ask a maybe silly question?
What das the abreviation PA mean and in addition. In former post I sometimes saw BE. Would you be so kind and explain it shortly?
Thank you in advance and a happy weekend for you
mahogany
  • #32,538
  • May 26, 2012 8:19am May 26, 2012 8:19am
Here's another chart (or another tech look). Month is about to end but it's not over yet. What that means ? If you look at the chart then i drew two trendlines from the same low but had different second connection points - a low and a candle BODY low. As can be seen, price has broken the "upper" trendline but is barely below the "lower" trendline on a monthly. Is the following scenario possible: We edge up to close the monthly candle at or above the lower trendline then squeeze further to test the upper trendline for confirmation (which also coincides with the falling trendline and the cap close on around 2900) ?

Greeks aren't out of the euro yet and noone wants that, not even the populist Tsipras cause he knows that the majority of greeks don't want to leave the euro. He's just going for a bargain hunt on the bailout terms and it would actually be a HEAVY drawback for his campaign and for his political career when he fails to keep the greeks in the euro. Furthermore, i do think Tsipras also realizes that his covernment could easily fall apart when greeks leave the euro. The current risks are that the rhetorics Greek political leaders use right now is just awful which is largely testing EU political leaders will.


just saying

you're all too bearish anyway




Quoting PipTrapper
My View

Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.

Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,539
  • May 26, 2012 9:50am May 26, 2012 9:50am
hello PT

Thanks for analysis. Hope next week will be nice down trend
  • #32,540
  • May 26, 2012 11:33am May 26, 2012 11:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't beat yourself up bro. You need to go out and get yourself a positive attitude. If you believe FX is a source of pain, anguish and suffering, then that's all you'll ever get out of it.
damn,

that IS me being positive....

have a good weekend bud... i got my hands full this weekend with this group of 11 college chicks all memorial day weekend here in California

I suppose it could be worse...
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