Observation 21-26 May 12 and Forecast for the Next Possible Points.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #32,521
- May 26, 2012 4:01am May 26, 2012 4:01am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
- #32,522
- May 26, 2012 4:03am May 26, 2012 4:03am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #32,523
- May 26, 2012 4:04am May 26, 2012 4:04am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #32,524
- May 26, 2012 4:53am May 26, 2012 4:53am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Don't put all ur eggs in one basket | 3,453 Posts
My View
Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.
Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just pointing...
Have a great weekend.
- #32,525
- May 26, 2012 5:01am May 26, 2012 5:01am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Don't put all ur eggs in one basket | 3,453 Posts
- #32,527
- Edited 6:01am May 26, 2012 5:26am | Edited 6:01am
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
My View
Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.
Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just pointing...
.like popper i am wondering and thinking what might be wrong with the above theses.let me think over it for sometime and see if i can come with antitheses for this.
its true that trend line is broken on monthly but its another 3-4days before the candle closes and as u know trend lines are a tricky business and it might turn out to be just a spike to take out all the bulls and trap for the patient bears
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #32,528
- May 26, 2012 5:32am May 26, 2012 5:32am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
- #32,529
- May 26, 2012 5:47am May 26, 2012 5:47am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Great analysis PT.
Are you still holding the E/J trade? I can re-affirm the target is still 98.66 area, but in light of my updated view on E/U, it may even head to double bottom at 97.03 area.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #32,530
- May 26, 2012 5:48am May 26, 2012 5:48am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
People always expect with a quick gain in this business,while there is no 100% sure thing In Trading World,
Without a Good Mindset/Attitude,Right edge,Proper money management system/risk reward strategy,In the end our Mr.market will punish them badly and they will ended with margin call,Its a matter of time only
Patient needed,if the price keep going down it doesnt mean we should start buying,if the price keep going up it doesnt mean we should keep selling
Human keep fails in this line and this cycle never ends,because human nature is hard...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #32,531
- May 26, 2012 5:48am May 26, 2012 5:48am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
nice work PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #32,532
- May 26, 2012 6:51am May 26, 2012 6:51am
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
I welcome your anti-thesis.
.2 as u said manufacturing is much better in US than euro area that means they have to sell and export it to the world which need a weaker dollar.3,gold is in correction and historically it is much better hedge against protecting wealth and purchasing power against paper money just think how much dollar has depreciated against gold in last 80 yrs. (it was 32 dollar/ounce in 1930 iesince then 46 times] 4, the real risk in todays world is FED and ECB and they are bigger than any institutional trader and i believe they are in the business of trapping all the institutional trader.if u ask who i want to go with institutional or FED/ECB junta i am always going to go with FED,as they r the smart money in this business.5,what happening with greek is just posturing and a warning to others to behave,greeks for that matters spain and italy are nothing in the bigger scheme of things.let me go over my profile charts,point and figure and median line analysis let me see where they r going to take me with target and entries i promise i will post them sometime in future. by the way contgratulation to u as u have already done a good job with fibonacci,trend lines,channels,moving averages,will useless and time wasting for me to go over the same material.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #32,533
- May 26, 2012 8:40am May 26, 2012 8:40am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Don't put all ur eggs in one basket | 3,453 Posts
You too Swissy. Get lots of rest. It's going to be an interesting week.
Are you still holding the E/J trade? I can re-affirm the target is still 98.66 area, but in light of my updated view on E/U, it may even head to double bottom at 97.03 area.
Yes. I'm going to ride it out with you bud. Let me know if we should move TP.
- #32,534
- May 26, 2012 9:13am May 26, 2012 9:13am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
to start with its true that trend line is broken on monthly but its another 3-4days before the candle closes and as u know trend lines are a tricky business and it might turn out to be just a spike to take out all the bulls and trap for the patient bears
The Fed is extremely unlikely to intervene unless the US unemployment rate increases. Based on the last 4 weeks of jobless claims reports, that's not mathematically possible right now.
As for the ECB, they are not about to launch any additional LTRO scheme until they have had enough time to evaluate the impact of LTRO 1 & 2. The most they could do at the moment to stimulate the economy is cut rates, but that would tend to be Euro negative anyway. Remember the EZ needs a lower Euro and they need it yesterday.
One risk I have not mentioned because it did not cross my mind at the time is a step-up of the liquidation of EZ owned foreign assets and the repatriation of the proceeds from USD into EUR. Although I don't believe that any such step-up would boost the Euro. More so it would just slow the decline.
I am looking forward to your technical analysis which supports a case to buy the Euro.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #32,535
- May 26, 2012 9:19am May 26, 2012 9:19am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Yes. I'm going to ride it out with you bud. Let me know if we should move TP.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #32,536
- May 26, 2012 10:03am May 26, 2012 10:03am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts
My View
Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.
Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just pointing...
I agree with your analysis. I have been bearish on the Euro for a long time now. In fact, I expect we´ll reach parity in the next year.
However, I am concerned in the very short term of the probability of a strong, temporary rebound happening, possibly in the next two weeks. My concern is technical in nature and it involves the weekly gap at 1.3080. There has been no attempt to close it since it occurred. I have looked at the weekly data all the way back to 1993 and there has not been a single instance of a gap remaining open. In total, there have been 9 weekly gaps since then. Three where closed the second week, another three on the third week, two on the fifth and one on the seventh. A weekly gap is like a black hole, exerting a strong pull on price until it is closed. More likely than not, the gap should be closed before continuing the move south. Also, before leaving the 1.20s for good, there should be a test of 1.30, which also happens to be the broken neckline of the head & shoulders pattern in the daily chart and the 61.8% Fib retracement of the current drop. Price spent a lot of time in the 1.30s. It would surprise me if it were to move under 1.20 without a final strong test (shakeout) of the 1.30 psychological number.
Again, even though I am totally with you on the end result, I feel there is unfinished work up above. It just seems way too easy...
I´d like to hear your view regarding this.
Thanks. Take care.
Observation is the path to discovery.
- #32,538
- May 26, 2012 10:19am May 26, 2012 10:19am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
Here's another chart (or another tech look). Month is about to end but it's not over yet. What that means ? If you look at the chart then i drew two trendlines from the same low but had different second connection points - a low and a candle BODY low. As can be seen, price has broken the "upper" trendline but is barely below the "lower" trendline on a monthly. Is the following scenario possible: We edge up to close the monthly candle at or above the lower trendline then squeeze further to test the upper trendline for confirmation (which also coincides with the falling trendline and the cap close on around 2900) ?
Greeks aren't out of the euro yet and noone wants that, not even the populist Tsipras cause he knows that the majority of greeks don't want to leave the euro. He's just going for a bargain hunt on the bailout terms and it would actually be a HEAVY drawback for his campaign and for his political career when he fails to keep the greeks in the euro. Furthermore, i do think Tsipras also realizes that his covernment could easily fall apart when greeks leave the euro. The current risks are that the rhetorics Greek political leaders use right now is just awful which is largely testing EU political leaders will.
just saying
you're all too bearish anyway
Greeks aren't out of the euro yet and noone wants that, not even the populist Tsipras cause he knows that the majority of greeks don't want to leave the euro. He's just going for a bargain hunt on the bailout terms and it would actually be a HEAVY drawback for his campaign and for his political career when he fails to keep the greeks in the euro. Furthermore, i do think Tsipras also realizes that his covernment could easily fall apart when greeks leave the euro. The current risks are that the rhetorics Greek political leaders use right now is just awful which is largely testing EU political leaders will.
just saying
you're all too bearish anyway
My View
Well it’s been an interesting week. All hell has broken loose in Europe and there is no solution in sight despite an EU summit on Wednesday. As a matter of fact, the summit caused more damage than it prevented. Furthermore, with every announcement from the talking heads themselves, the same people who are supposed to be building our confidence in Europe, the news gets worse and the confidence deteriorates further. What a bunch of incompetent morons, and I’m being nice here.
Now don’t get me wrong. I’m not complaining. I’m just...
- #32,540
- May 26, 2012 1:33pm May 26, 2012 1:33pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
Don't beat yourself up bro. You need to go out and get yourself a positive attitude. If you believe FX is a source of pain, anguish and suffering, then that's all you'll ever get out of it.
that IS me being positive....
have a good weekend bud... i got my hands full this weekend with this group of 11 college chicks all memorial day weekend here in California
I suppose it could be worse...
