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EUR/CHF

  • #7,161
  • May 25, 2012 1:49pm May 25, 2012 1:49pm
I'm always doing stupid things after a big win.
I missed the spikes this morning, now I opened too early and miss buying around the peg.
Next time I get a big shot I'll take 1 week vacation
  • #7,162
  • May 25, 2012 2:46pm May 25, 2012 2:46pm
same here
Quoting ledobedo
u not alone
  • #7,163
  • May 26, 2012 12:04am May 26, 2012 12:04am
Quoting hmsarosh
i think if Snb did'nt intervene a little tonight they might never.. 1.20049 is as low as it gets if someone took some big lots down it will drag the pair 10 pips easily and then it will be too late for an intervention :/
They're on the bid for billions of EUR at 1.2000, rumor has it.

So, if they withdraw the bid the move will be huge but... if SNB keeps their bid at 1.2000, no worries. Won't break 1.2 unless SNB wants it.

The price action has suggested that SNB and/or its agents are also on the bid between 1.2000 and 1.2010, how else to explain how the range for days on end has been between 1.2005 and 1.2015?

More interesting to speculate who and why the action on Thursday/Friday up to 1.2070. Rumors (floor raise - no one believes it now; negative interest rates - why panic???) don't explain it, realistically. Stop run, perhaps, but seems an expensive endeavor vs other pairs. Does give lie to assertion that SNB is aggressively selling EUR to keep EURCHF at just over 1.2 (see Zerohedge)- should have been more offers above 1.2020 to keep it from spiking all the way to 1.2070, right?

All very puzzling.
  • #7,164
  • May 26, 2012 2:04pm May 26, 2012 2:04pm
i think Snb missed a chance of raising the floor to 1.2100 when it spiked to 1.2074 they could have easily intervened a little and dragged they pair ahead. now everyone has loaded up long positions with Tp's around 1.2050-80 even an intervention will come under severe pressure after everyone will sell at this price and the price will come down again. Snb will have to raise the floor intervention won't do any good. not to mention the Euro condition these days.
  • #7,165
  • May 26, 2012 2:08pm May 26, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting rcrist
and also bought too early , around 1.2014
thats not early man. i bought at 1.20148 the pair has got out of its shell now so dont worry. just be patient. hold the long
  • #7,166
  • May 26, 2012 3:02pm May 26, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting pgtrsea
They're on the bid for billions of EUR at 1.2000, rumor has it.

So, if they withdraw the bid the move will be huge but... if SNB keeps their bid at 1.2000, no worries. Won't break 1.2 unless SNB wants it.

The price action has suggested that SNB and/or its agents are also on the bid between 1.2000 and 1.2010, how else to explain how the range for days on end has been between 1.2005 and 1.2015?

More interesting to speculate who and why the action on Thursday/Friday up to 1.2070. Rumors (floor raise - no one believes it now; negative interest...


IMO SNB prepares something big
  • #7,167
  • May 26, 2012 3:16pm May 26, 2012 3:16pm
Quoting rcrist
IMO SNB prepares something big
What is IMO ? And where you find source ?
  • #7,168
  • May 26, 2012 3:38pm May 26, 2012 3:38pm
Quoting Urosh1
What is IMO ? And where you find source ?
IMO = In My Opinion
:: everything is awesome ::
  • #7,169
  • May 26, 2012 4:31pm May 26, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting Urosh1
What is IMO ? And where you find source ?
So he finds source in his head About last 2 days, I were at university when the spike happend and i would probably close my longs at those 1,2070 levels, but just didn't know what was happening, and it was over when i came back home :> I blame physics and will wait patiently again for another ocasion
  • #7,170
  • May 26, 2012 7:03pm May 26, 2012 7:03pm
The main is patience ... so just wait , wait and wait. Price must move one day. I strongly believe in SNB and peg ,between 250-300 pips is my target.
  • #7,171
  • May 27, 2012 1:41am May 27, 2012 1:41am
I'm afraid of Monday. Spain's Bankia request for €19bil bailout will definitely cause EUR to plunge.

How confident are you guys on SNB 'utmost determination' to hold 1.2000? Thin Mon Asian hours trade may cause a breach...

I'm on SL @ 1.1985.
  • #7,172
  • May 27, 2012 5:25am May 27, 2012 5:25am
you don't get it, right?

The peg will always be there.

Maybe a pop up this morning?

http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wirtscha...story/29143330
  • #7,173
  • May 27, 2012 5:41am May 27, 2012 5:41am
he looks worried on the pic
  • #7,174
  • May 27, 2012 8:33am May 27, 2012 8:33am
"Even under the most difficult conditions we will also in future enforce the minimum rate with all determination and align our monetary policy with maintaining this minimum rate. I stress, even under very adverse conditions," Jordan said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...84Q02C20120527
  • #7,175
  • May 27, 2012 9:12am May 27, 2012 9:12am
Asked about calls from Swiss industry for the SNB to move the cap to try to weaken the franc further, he said:

"For many companies the situation is very difficult. But we can't just arbitrarily manipulate our currency. In an even worse crisis situation, that would be fatal and counterproductive ... The current minimum rate is realistic and has helped the Swiss economy."
You can lose your shirt if your buttons are loose.
  • #7,176
  • May 27, 2012 9:39am May 27, 2012 9:39am
Thanks to all of you guys for your reassurance that 1.20 will not be breached.

I hope all will be well & fine and hoping for a spike Monday morn. Abt 8hrs to go before market opens....
  • #7,177
  • May 27, 2012 10:43am May 27, 2012 10:43am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-tells-sz.html
You can lose your shirt if your buttons are loose.
  • #7,178
  • May 27, 2012 11:08am May 27, 2012 11:08am
i undestand that he won't rise the peg directly, but he still exept a natural up of chf.
  • #7,179
  • May 27, 2012 1:54pm May 27, 2012 1:54pm
Now we can sleep again
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #7,180
  • May 27, 2012 2:54pm May 27, 2012 2:54pm
saxo shows bid 1.19985, offer 2037, mid price some around 2015
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