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Circular Trendlines

  • #1,921
  • May 23, 2012 12:16pm May 23, 2012 12:16pm
In many cases a turn around sign is at least a 100 pip strong upward move, not a move that draggs itself 100 pip upwards.

Failure to see this type of reaction is a sign that current trend is in place.

These types of moves, have the tendency to happen within few hours of openning or closing of the eur session. If they happen another times, they are usually fake moves.

Quoting Kambooj
Sorry for late response,

but in the case of the chart at the time that you wrote this post, highly corrective movement was expected. so a downward movement to about 78.6 or 88.6 of the rise from 2642-2823 would have been a natural expectation.

2642 was slightly above Jan 15 low of 2623, so still we could have been at the end of a movement.

Since the Jan 15 Low and (August 22 - Sept 15) of 2010 lie on the same line, I was not expecting it to be broken. They were strong levels.


But the fact that it is broken, within a limit of 50-100 pips...
  • #1,922
  • May 23, 2012 12:27pm May 23, 2012 12:27pm
How do you draw circles on your charts and fit the curve to price? I can't find any tools on MT4 or TOS to do it.

Time wise, euro has not had such long and dragged on bearish move for a long time. Even in September 2011, the drop was bigger, but it was 2 weeks of drop including a retracement in between and then the 3rd week was an entire week of retracement. This time it's been 3 weeks of straight fall ( a bit of retrace at the beginning of the 2nd week) and no decent retracement so far. I am thinking if it is going to make a low soon around 2500 levels with some chops on 4H timeframe to put in a 5-point expanding pivot pattern (like that of Jan/2012 low) or not. This would be enough to wash and rinse both the longs and shorts. I would love your 25th May timeline produce a sharp squeeze to above this week's high to put in pivot 4.

Thanks for your charts. They're fascinating.
  • #1,923
  • May 23, 2012 12:43pm May 23, 2012 12:43pm
I know in MT4, its a pain. I have some diagrams on how to configure it on MT4 on the first page of this thread. Its on diagrams not on the text.


In answering the size of the drop, here is something that is my own view point:

<---------------------------------

Sometimes in trying to adjust your position, specially at times when major levels get broken on a continuous basis, it helps to think in terms of what the banks are thinking.

From what I have seen time and time over, I am making the following conclusions:

When the price of EUR comes down, usually months before it happens, it is decided by the major banks and their families where its gonna go.

The rest is a orchestrated effort to fool the traders and the market on going one way while they go on their plan to rise this pair or ditch it.

They think in terms of 1000's of pips, not 100. So lets say that they keep the price of EUR at above 1.3000 level. Now they want to take it down, initially you see signs of fake break, and thats exactly what they want you to see. Then suddenly it comes down, and 400 pips below we have the major support at 2600.

Now, think about it. If you had a trillion dollars at your hand and you wanted to bring price of EUR 400 pips down, would you put all the money in one trade and bring it down.

Answer is No, what would you do?

The best thing to do is divide the 400 pips into smaller chunk sizes and say that by 1 month we should come down 400 pips, every day about 80-100 pips down and then 50 pips up, then next day 100 pips down, 30 pips up.

You wouldnt let anybody to disrupt your plan, because you have the money and its your decision on where to go.

You can very well put all your money in the opposite direction and raise the EUR, so why wouldnt you do it?

Reason is that you have not reached your target. So you know something that I (the average trader) does not know when price reaches that level.

But me the average trader, do not care and possibly cannot find out what you (the makret maker) knows.

All I can see is a pattern of rise and falls, and as long as I see that you (the market maker) is not satisfied by 400 pips down, then I assume that you want to go 800-1000 pips down.

My RSI, circles, trendlines, Astro economic, etc go out of the window, and now I pay attention to how the movment of price (ie what the market maker is thinking) is respecting thes levels.

See If the EUR is at 1.2800 level, and it doesnt go to 1.3000, this tells me that someone really doesnt like to put their money to go that high. They are probably thinking close to a 1000 pips below 3000 or something very close to a 1000 pips.

Sometimes you have to keep this in mind when you trade. It helps to keeping with the trend.

If you were the market maker, what would you do?

------------------------------------------------->


Quoting Oshawa
How do you draw circles on your charts and fit the curve to price? I can't find any tools on MT4 or TOS to do it.

Time wise, euro has not had such long and dragged on bearish move for a long time. Even in September 2011, the drop was bigger, but it was 2 weeks of drop including a retracement in between and then the 3rd week was an entire week of retracement. This time it's been 3 weeks of straight fall ( a bit of retrace at the beginning of the 2nd week) and no decent retracement so far. I am thinking if it is going to make a low soon around 2500...
  • #1,924
  • May 23, 2012 3:45pm May 23, 2012 3:45pm
Here is the daily time frame view, with the explanation given for the false break scenario...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 141 KB
  • #1,925
  • May 23, 2012 5:18pm May 23, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting Kambooj
I know in MT4, its a pain. I have some diagrams on how to configure it on MT4 on the first page of this thread. Its on diagrams not on the text.


In answering the size of the drop, here is something that is my own view point:

<---------------------------------

Sometimes in trying to adjust your position, specially at times when major levels get broken on a continuous basis, it helps to think in terms of what the banks are thinking.

From what I have seen time and time over, I am making the following conclusions:

When the price of EUR comes...
I really wonder why there is not the possibility to code an Indi for the Circles?
Greeds Zack
  • #1,926
  • May 23, 2012 5:33pm May 23, 2012 5:33pm
If you can do this then you are really a good programmer:

Code a indicator in such a way, where it will draw multiple circles on a chart where the following conditions hold true:

1. The boundaries of all price action must touch the perimeter of the circles either on the inside or the outside.

2. All other circles except one should have their centers placed on the perimeter of other circles, and they should create support / resistance regions when doing so.

Usually such a configuration on a chart becomes a very valid position for price and time matching each other.

Quoting zackery
I really wonder why there is not the possibility to code an Indi for the Circles?
Greeds Zack
  • #1,927
  • May 23, 2012 5:41pm May 23, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting Kambooj
If you can do this then you are really a good programmer:

Code a indicator in such a way, where it will draw multiple circles on a chart where the following conditions hold true:

1. The boundaries of all price action must touch the perimeter of the circles either on the inside or the outside.

2. All other circles except one should have their centers placed on the perimeter of other circles, and they should create support / resistance regions when doing so.

Usually such a configuration on a chart becomes a very valid position for price and...
Sorry I am not a Coder.
Maybe it is codeable with the condition that there are X-Touching Points in a certain Timeframe (let's say 3 HIGHS and 3 LOWS ) which naturally could only be drawn together in a Circle-Form (or HALF-Circle-Form ) .
Just my thoughts for that.
Greeds Zack
  • #1,928
  • May 23, 2012 5:44pm May 23, 2012 5:44pm
Yes, I guess that is doable, but havent found any other method other than a good pair of eyes, in trying to fit everything together.


Quoting zackery
Sorry I am not a Coder.
Maybe it is codeable with the condition that there are X-Touching Points in a certain Timeframe (let's say 3 HIGHS and 3 LOWS ) which naturally could only be drawn together in a Circle-Form (or HALF-Circle-Form ) .
Just my thoughts for that.
Greeds Zack
  • #1,929
  • May 23, 2012 6:35pm May 23, 2012 6:35pm
Quoting Kambooj
I know in MT4, its a pain. I have some diagrams on how to configure it on MT4 on the first page of this thread. Its on diagrams not on the text.

Thanks for the write-up. Will go through it more carefully.
  • #1,930
  • May 24, 2012 3:39am May 24, 2012 3:39am
Quoting Kambooj
Yes, I guess that is doable, but havent found any other method other than a good pair of eyes, in trying to fit everything together.
Well there are some superb Coders out there like (with no ranking ! ):
- ROOICOOL
- FXTR 51
- RONALD RAYGUN
- STEVE HOPWOOD
- CMKM1
- HANOVER
sorry for every Coder I may have forgotten
Maybe one of the guys jump in cold water for this idea of Indi.
Greeds Zack
  • #1,931
  • May 24, 2012 8:30am May 24, 2012 8:30am
Price action has made it past the blue median line, but this movement is not enough to be counted as a strong sign of a trend change. We need to reach the T1 trendline for a stronger cofirmation, or in another word, we need a perimeter to perimeter move in the black circle. So far the horizontal straight trendline has shown support, which is a very good bullish sign. Next Challenge is reaching 2680 as soon as possible.

The center of the black circle has offered some resistance, it is yet to be tested again. Looking at the H4 RSI we can see a capacity for more upward movement. If the H4 RSI can get past the 45 level, it even adds more credibility for a bullish trend that is taking place.

If none of the above bullish signs will hold, then we just have a fake upward movement and we will be dipping below 2500 level to 2350 zone.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_RSI.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #1,932
  • May 24, 2012 8:31am May 24, 2012 8:31am
Thanks for the tip, I will keep this in mind.

Quoting zackery
Well there are some superb Coders out there like (with no ranking ! ):
- ROOICOOL
- FXTR 51
- RONALD RAYGUN
- STEVE HOPWOOD
- CMKM1
- HANOVER
sorry for every Coder I may have forgotten
Maybe one of the guys jump in cold water for this idea of Indi.
Greeds Zack
  • #1,933
  • May 24, 2012 9:13am May 24, 2012 9:13am
Here is a update on the situation....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #1,934
  • May 24, 2012 9:39am May 24, 2012 9:39am
Here is a elliot wave perspective:

Truncated zig zag

In Elliot Wave terminology, the structure shown is called a Truncated ZigZag. This is when the price extension of the C wave does not go to a minimum level of 138.2 of its A wave. In this case we have almost ended in between the 114.6 and 127.2 of the fibonacci price extension of the A wave.

Usually Truncated ZigZags imply that the C wave does not want to extend much further and there is great demand for it NOT TO progress further in the direction of the trend. If this structure is authentic, then its telling us that another sign of reversal is present.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H8.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #1,935
  • May 24, 2012 10:21am May 24, 2012 10:21am
So far bullishness has shown all the signs that we were looking for.

Here is another one that is worth paying attention to...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #1,936
  • May 28, 2012 9:31am May 28, 2012 9:31am
Support at the bigger blue circle and the smaller black solid circle around the region in red will be amplified as motion gets closer to it. We will be looking for a rebound off the shown zone, roughly around the 2510-2520 zone. This rebound should take us to 2660-2670 where the junction of the 2 black circles are.

According to our timeline described previously in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post5693724

the May 25 mark is a action/reaction zone, and in this case I suspect a turnaround should occur soon, and a gradual uprise should be observed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #1,937
  • May 28, 2012 9:57am May 28, 2012 9:57am
Here is from a timeline perspective, which roughly points to the vicinity of June 12 - June 18th being the area where a action/reaction of considerable strength might occur.

For now time and price indicates that it would be roughly the vicinity of 2750 level, however because we dont have enough points right now its hard to tell.

In the event of a strong impulse wave upwards, this timeline could push prices up to 3050-3080 level.

If market is corrective, then its probably range bound for the next 2 weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 163 KB
  • #1,938
  • May 28, 2012 11:22pm May 28, 2012 11:22pm
its hard to align the object using circle with MT4.. any suggestion? in netdania we can use free hand..
  • #1,939
  • May 29, 2012 8:06am May 29, 2012 8:06am
wops.. never mind.. already done it.. still train for putting the right cycle now..
  • #1,940
  • May 29, 2012 9:50am May 29, 2012 9:50am
Here is the current view, does not look very promising for huge dips and moves within the next few weeks, a 350-450 pip range is all that looks like its gonna happen.

Unfortunately we are starting into summer month tradings which is full of wipsaw action, with currency not moving very much within a few hundred pip ranges.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 214 KB
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