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EUR/CHF

  • #6,941
  • May 18, 2012 1:21pm May 18, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting alesss
what happen with EURCHF positions if euro disappears this weekend?
We will get beers for free
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #6,942
  • May 18, 2012 1:31pm May 18, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting alesss
what happen with EURCHF positions if euro disappears this weekend?
will be exchanged to drachma
  • #6,943
  • May 18, 2012 2:24pm May 18, 2012 2:24pm
got a statement from them something like this:

"due to the significant one-way speculation in this pair, in order to limit excess vulnerability, the company has cut the carry trade in EURCHF"

there were too many...
  • #6,944
  • May 18, 2012 2:46pm May 18, 2012 2:46pm
I know that probability is low, but it is not impossible, in fact, URSS fell, Austria-hungary empire disappeared and now it's possible that Eurozone disintegrates. But what happen with euro in forex market?
  • #6,945
  • May 19, 2012 4:52am May 19, 2012 4:52am
Yesterday, i have closed all my long-time long trades on eurchf.
The loss was huge, fortunately i've traded other pairs during the week and made enough profit to cover the eurchf loss, so it was not soo painful after all.
But now i'm free, fuck eurchf, it has been a big scam, we will buy unlimited quantities, the chf is overvalued, and it ended as a pegged currency (like many in the past, who stayed in a few pips range for years) with negative swap.
Ok we are traders, we have to move forward, i wish for all you traders that eurchf will magically jump of 30-40-100-500-1000 pips, also if my evaluation of the current eurchf state tell me that a drop (floor-remove) is more probable, so this longs was just a bomb ready to explode, and i'm not going to be killed when this will explode.
Thank you all for your support and your insightful comments and ideas, i really appreciated to read and interact with people on this thread.

Peace
  • #6,946
  • May 19, 2012 9:51am May 19, 2012 9:51am
Have to say I got bored of this Pair weeks ago as it just tying up capital as at this rate even if they do intervene it wont be the monster move that alot of people are hoping for around 1.3 probably only to 1.24/5 and so "if" the SNB came in next week and pushed it to 1.24 your only looking at an average gain of around 10-12 pips per day when capital could have been used else where to make 50-100 or more pips on other pairs. Thats if they come in next week no saying they will.
With this trade you have to realise the SNB DON'T like people speculating with or against their currency. And your dealing with their time and money and in the scale of things 1-2 years is a very small amount of time in the life of a country and a currency.
So the SNB can play this one of two ways. As there are so many people net long something like 44+ to 1 long to short which is ridiculous! They will want to get rid of all these speculators.
1. They would wait so long that eventually all the swap rates turn negative... this could take weeks, months or even a year or two, who knows then most people will get so bored, frustrated they just close out the trades. Then out of no where the SNB surprises everyone and rocket launches the PA up to 1.3 or even higher...
2. But my money's on this way, As i said they don't like people speculating in there currency and this way would have a lasting impression on speculators. I reckon they would call a bluff drop PA through the floor to clear all the stops around 19xx or lower then intervening to power Eur/Chf to above 1.24 and higher. (don't forget they can make money both ways by doing this). But this way could back fire thats why i reckon they are taking there time to think about the best most cost efficient and effective way of doing this .. but doing this way to take out all those stops with very highly leveraged positions could cause a massive sell off and free fall of 5-600 or more pips but who knows its fx anything can happen. by doing it this way no one in the future could be sure how the SNB will handle situations to come and will be be very weary about speculating with the Swiss Frank (scared away and painful thoughts) which is what they want, so would therefore be cheaper for the SNB to control there currency in years to come.

Have this in mind as well the SNB couldn't care less if you have a highly leveraged position that has 5,10,15,20 or even 50% of your account at risk. You have to think about their time and money not yours and follow them. So how i would personally play it.. i would put in a a number of price alerts below the 1.2 floor then just watch the pair fall and wait for large low tests followed by engulfing or inside bars and go in live no orders (anything from 1-1h time frames). Another way to play it would be to wait for it to drop and have an entry order long just about 1.2 floor as if it falls through 1.9xx it could keep going as lots of highly leveraged positions will be liquidated. But if it turns around from this point 1.2 will be a good entry as it powers on up as SNB get involved. I would suggest don't have a tight stop if you enter around 1.9xx as it will be very messy PA for sure!
good luck to all but i'm out this pair for the time being.
  • #6,947
  • May 19, 2012 2:57pm May 19, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting tunera
Yesterday, i have closed all my long-time long trades on eurchf.
Peace
i feel sorry for ur lost bro

maybe this was the right action u had to do. god bless u in the future
  • #6,948
  • May 19, 2012 9:26pm May 19, 2012 9:26pm
Quoting worsttrader
i feel sorry for ur lost bro

maybe this was the right action u had to do. god bless u in the future
Don't worry i still keep an eye on it, at any time, from moonday sidney open to friday ny close, if something start happening i'll join it with utmost determination.
  • #6,949
  • May 20, 2012 2:43am May 20, 2012 2:43am
Quoting tunera
Don't worry i still keep an eye on it, at any time, from moonday sidney open to friday ny close, if something start happening i'll join it with utmost determination.
I closed all 1 week ago because I don’t believe the SNB any more
Of course, there is big loss but there is worst thing that if I continue to keep this pair, I do not believe myself can make money in future. Why we trade 1 pair only? Why we believe in 1 person who is not reliable???
So between 2 losses, I choose the thing which have less damage.
In this battle, nobody is smarter than you.
  • #6,950
  • May 20, 2012 2:46am May 20, 2012 2:46am
Quoting sonmeman
I closed all 1 week ago because I don’t believe the SNB any more
Of course, there is big loss but there is worst thing that if I continue to keep this pair, I do not believe myself can make money in future. Why we trade 1 pair only? Why we believe in 1 person who is not reliable???
So between 2 losses, I choose the thing which have less damage.
In this battle, nobody is smarter than you.
Yes let's face the truth, after half year of stagnation, markets are finally starting to trend, and they are trending big.
The whole market is trending big, only eurchf is damn stuck in a 2pips range.
The snb is doing a perfect work, keeping the eurchf at 1.20 during this hard times for the eur, i personally belive that in the near future the pair will be allowed to drop, be careful please!
  • #6,951
  • May 20, 2012 12:37pm May 20, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting tunera
Yes let's face the truth, after half year of stagnation, markets are finally starting to trend, and they are trending big.
The whole market is trending big, only eurchf is damn stuck in a 2pips range.
The snb is doing a perfect work, keeping the eurchf at 1.20 during this hard times for the eur, i personally belive that in the near future the pair will be allowed to drop, be careful please!
yeah right, once you got out you think it's going to drop.
2 weeks ago you were thinking it was going to explode
  • #6,952
  • May 20, 2012 12:45pm May 20, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting rcrist
yeah right, once you got out you think it's going to drop.
2 weeks ago you were thinking it was going to explode
To conclude, what EUR/CHF is going to do? Simple- NOTHING
  • #6,953
  • May 20, 2012 1:55pm May 20, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting rcrist
yeah right, once you got out you think it's going to drop.
2 weeks ago you were thinking it was going to explode
Yeah, i was beliving on some plan by the snb, but hey after 3 months of nothing i just understand that their plan was to keep this baby just at the minimum rate (lazy guys!).
Now, with this new understanding about the snb to not willing to intervene at all (like raise the floor), what remain is a downtrend that is put on halt (like a retrace), and if the snb can't take huge actions, the trend will win in the near future.
The time is a very important variable, we must understand what a trend is to understand the importance of time related to it.
Basically, the more time pass, the bigger selling pressure is on eurchf, if an intervention would be easy in past, day after day it become more and more hard and expensive (almost impossible), the more time pass, the more pressure is on eurchf.
And if it didn't went up in these 3-4 months, chances are that it will drop as soon as the snb stop playing the minimum rate game (and they will stop sooner or later, no peg has ever lasted forever in all the forex history).
Moral of the story: i hope to be wrong for the buyers shake, maybe i will enter some position in future when the pair will wakeup, maybe next week or next year ( ) sorry for the sarcasm, wish you the best as always
  • #6,954
  • May 20, 2012 9:09pm May 20, 2012 9:09pm
Quoting tunera
Yeah, i was beliving on some plan by the snb, but hey after 3 months of nothing i just understand that their plan was to keep this baby just at the minimum rate (lazy guys!).
Now, with this new understanding about the snb to not willing to intervene at all (like raise the floor), what remain is a downtrend that is put on halt (like a retrace), and if the snb can't take huge actions, the trend will win in the near future.
The time is a very important variable, we must understand what a trend is to understand the importance of time related to it.
Basically,...
Good luck Tunera
  • #6,955
  • May 20, 2012 9:16pm May 20, 2012 9:16pm
Good luck for those of you who closed your longs. But Iam holding my long as long as the world economy is deteriorating, and the likelyhood of deflation is stronger and stronger.

Car sales in China very bad sign for German and Swiss export in comming months:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-increase.html
  • #6,956
  • May 20, 2012 9:24pm May 20, 2012 9:24pm
Quoting tim10167
Good luck Tunera
Thank you, it's not that i becomed crazy from one day to another, but i'm trading for a living and after 3 months of non-profit (holding this eurchf longs) i just had to close them and allow the trading-income to flow again, my life style need a constant flow, i can't stay 1 year without make money because of snb or switzerland, i gave them 3 months, no money, then fuck them.
I simply can't afford it anymore, but yeah you (buyers) who can afford to wait long time i think it may end up to be a good trade, me too i wish you big luck, and i still keep an eye and an alarm on it, if price go above 1.2040 the sounds of my alarms will be loud and powerful (like a tornado siren)
So i may jump in again when the action begin, but in the meantime i just had to cut the positions to allow other trading activites.
Good luck mates May eurchf bring you (and me too) big profit!
  • #6,957
  • May 20, 2012 11:22pm May 20, 2012 11:22pm
Quoting tunera
Thank you, it's not that i becomed crazy from one day to another, but i'm trading for a living and after 3 months of non-profit (holding this eurchf longs) i just had to close them and allow the trading-income to flow again, my life style need a constant flow, i can't stay 1 year without make money because of snb or switzerland, i gave them 3 months, no money, then fuck them.
I simply can't afford it anymore, but yeah you (buyers) who can afford to wait long time i think it may end up to be a good trade, me too i wish you big luck, and i still...

I hope you won't open positions above 1.204 just to end up back to 1.201
  • #6,958
  • May 21, 2012 1:44am May 21, 2012 1:44am
Quoting tunera
Yes let's face the truth, after half year of stagnation, markets are finally starting to trend, and they are trending big.
The whole market is trending big, only eurchf is damn stuck in a 2pips range.
The snb is doing a perfect work, keeping the eurchf at 1.20 during this hard times for the eur, i personally belive that in the near future the pair will be allowed to drop, be careful please!
I do not agree with you that the snb do the perfect work. They must know that they had profited from the success of other person.
If Jordan does the good job, he never say the echf overvalued but in reality he ordered to sell it.
He is not ashamed to talk it.
Remember that under his management, the echf goes always 1.2010 – 1.2013 for a long time.
Remember that he says: from open time of the sun to the closed time of the moon, he will protect the floor, but in his hour the floor breached under 1.2 even for shortly.
In the worst time when S&P downgraded the European countries (especially France) the eurusd went to 1.2636 and eurchf go to 1.2060, and now the eurusd go again to 1.2640, the eurchf stay 1.2009, Mr. Jordan continue to say: The minimum exchange rate was really the only effective option. He continues to congratulate himself as hero to protect swiss economy.
The next time, he should use the Chanel No 5 to waste his mouth before talking.
For me, I will be back when there is really a good SNB, a good Governor. I can get the loss in trading but I can not accept a liar like him
  • #6,959
  • May 21, 2012 1:54am May 21, 2012 1:54am
Quoting sonmeman
I do not agree with you that the snb do the perfect work. They must know that they had profited from the success of other person.
If Jordan does the good job, he never say the echf overvalued but in reality he ordered to sell it.
He is not ashamed to talk it.
Remember that under his management, the echf goes always 1.2010 – 1.2013 for a long time.
Remember that he says: from open time of the sun to the closed time of the moon, he will protect the floor, but in his hour the floor breached under 1.2 even for shortly.
In the worst time...
True, but don't belive that jordan is the only one taking the decisions, actually he's just the boss figure of the snb, but decisions are taken by the board members and surely they have many analysts and people that study everyday the situation and suggest what to do and what to not do.
I think that hiberland was in a different time, he adopted the min rate because the market was simply soo crazy, and he had to protect the switzerland from all that shit.
But now situation is different, there are international organs that are mostly against interventions (like the IMF), the snb is in a weird position, of course they probably cannot (for many economical reasons) and don't want to raise the peg or to intervene anymore in the market because this is not what central banks are supposed to do in a free market (ok you can intervene one time to set a minimum rate in exceptional situations, but you cannot move your currency up and down of 500-1000 pips as you wish), we should remember that the snb is able to keep the floor mainly because of the collaboration with the big central banks and the big international organizations, and such "allies" clearly don't accept the fact that the snb would bring up or down the pair at their discretion, this is not how the free market is supposed to do.
So, i see especially in the last speaks, jordan pointed out soo much the fact that they was forced to put the min rate because of the crazy market situation, and he also emphatise very much about the collaboration of the world central banks, etc..(like to say: sorry guys, we really had to put this peg, please continue to support us, i promise to do the good guy from now on).
To me if snb now intervene and raise the peg this can be perceived like a bad very bad thing from other central banks and various organizations, (it is not fair for a central bank to manipulate their own currency to take advantage along the other economies), jordan clarified this in his last speechs, that the snb was forced to put this peg, and that it was not a manipulative move (unfair against other economies), so now for sure they are not going to raise it again, if they do the market would surely turn against them, destroying the new floor and the eurchf. What they have to do now is stick to their peg, 1.2010, as long as they want, and when they feel good enough they can remove the peg and let the eurchf come back to the forex market (and i guess it would mean to drop).
Make sense?
  • #6,960
  • May 21, 2012 2:18am May 21, 2012 2:18am
I strongly suggest Game Theory for all of you.
There is no more peg,they are protecting the stops below 1.20. Mr. Market is not stupid and know how to play the game. But there is no free lunch
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