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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #313,941
  • May 19, 2012 9:09am May 19, 2012 9:09am
well you could add there

Quoting nAVIN2007
Dont say this man!..lol i will be fried
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #313,942
  • May 19, 2012 9:14am May 19, 2012 9:14am
seriously Nav if daily hammer fails we are going there! You know very well Price can eailsy do it in consolidation
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #313,943
  • May 19, 2012 9:34am May 19, 2012 9:34am
Interesting candle on the daily for Friday of a small bodied candle outside the bollinger band. Indication of an exhaustion move if the folowing candle closes inside the bands,but will have to see how Monday finishes. Retailers have got themselves fairly neutral now having been squeezed short then being crushed long. I too am neutral on cable and will see where the momentum takes us. The old adage of sell in May and go away looks like what the Wall St guys are thinking, so we could see continued dollar strength if stocks continue to slide.
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  • #313,944
  • May 19, 2012 9:56am May 19, 2012 9:56am
Do you have info on what the banks think?


Quoting Flatfish
Interesting candle on the daily for Friday of a small bodied candle outside the bollinger band. Indication of an exhaustion move if the folowing candle closes inside the bands,but will have to see how Monday finishes. Retailers have got themselves fairly neutral now having been squeezed short then being crushed long. I too am neutral on cable and will see where the momentum takes us. The old adage of sell in May and go away looks like what the Wall St guys are thinking, so we could see continued dollar strength if stocks continue to slide.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #313,945
  • May 19, 2012 9:59am May 19, 2012 9:59am
Quoting Bones
seriously Nav if daily hammer fails we are going there! You know very well Price can eailsy do it in consolidation
a retest back up won't hurt the down move mate.. still has about 2 weeks of trading sessions left before month ends..

and perhaps we might have better price for swing trading.. a positive swing trading of course..
  • #313,946
  • May 19, 2012 10:02am May 19, 2012 10:02am
Quoting Bones
Not really Pk , is that break ??

I have 4 on the upper side of wedge
Got chart? Anyways... Nothing is 100% as you know, but the odds are higher.
  • #313,947
  • May 19, 2012 10:26am May 19, 2012 10:26am
of course

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post5676093
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #313,948
  • May 19, 2012 10:39am May 19, 2012 10:39am
Quoting Bones
of course

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post5676093
i don't think that tl is correct. when dealing with consolidation, i would just focus on consolidation highs and lows. just a thought.

anywayz... it's the horizontals that are important to me though, not much the tl.
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  • #313,949
  • May 19, 2012 12:35pm May 19, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting Bones
Do you have info on what the banks think?
The problem with banks is that COT data is compiled on Tuesday and released Friday so its not always useful. Banks technical reports are mostly useless with entry points too far from market price, and as with Goldman you were never trust any position an institution recommends. If you have a tier 3 platform you can see where banks bids. But from my experience knowing how retailers are positioned is easiest wasy of knowing how banks are positioned since they are taking the other side of the bet.

And yes picture is negative for cable but we have to be wary that a retrace is always likely, so not just a case of sell and turn off the screen- but that would be a smarter choice than buying and turning off the screen.
  • #313,950
  • May 19, 2012 2:14pm May 19, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting pkimnyc
wish you luck then, monthly looks quite different.
Yeah I agree monthly does not look good on your chart can I ask what is that MA that is crushing the pound? It's strange, when I place the channel tool (which allows for greater TL placeent accuracy) on those swing lows, I only get 2 touches.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #313,951
  • May 19, 2012 3:03pm May 19, 2012 3:03pm
Totally off topic for which I apologise.

Chelsea, a London team, has won the European Cup beating Bayern Munich in german soil on penalties! Fantastic.

Certainly things are looking up for UK .
  • #313,952
  • May 19, 2012 3:57pm May 19, 2012 3:57pm
That's the spirit Rasi

Come on Cable, you've done a lot of hard work this year,
now hold the line!, hold the line!
NO RETREAT DAMN IT!!!
LOL...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #313,953
  • May 19, 2012 6:49pm May 19, 2012 6:49pm
its been long time i didn't use EW in my analysis so i dunno if i am doing good job right now. i spent few hours trying to figure how to analyze GU on the long term amd this is what i came up with.

price should follow the strict notes that i wrote on the chart otherwise the counting will fail.

if there is any EW expert here take a look on my chart and tell me if u agree or disagree with the counting.

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  • #313,954
  • May 19, 2012 7:31pm May 19, 2012 7:31pm
I am still bearish and If price retrace less than 50% of previous weekly bar then i will have some more legs.

If price goes above it I am out of the market.

We will see what happens next week.

Happy Pippin...
I am a hunter...i kill both bulls and bears...
  • #313,955
  • May 19, 2012 7:32pm May 19, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting msniper
its been long time i didn't use EW in my analysis so i dunno if i am doing good job right now. i spent few hours trying to figure how to analyze GU on the long term amd this is what i came up with.

price should follow the strict notes that i wrote on the chart otherwise the counting will fail.

if there is any EW expert here take a look on my chart and tell me if u agree or disagree with the counting.

I Agree with your analysis...
I am a hunter...i kill both bulls and bears...
  • #313,956
  • May 19, 2012 7:56pm May 19, 2012 7:56pm
Gbp usd is very tricky, it may find support here, and continue the uptrend it is currently in, reaching again the highs (and free sky from there).

Or, it can continue it's under-pressure behaviour to the next support, and from there after a retrace go down to the major supports (and free fall from there).

No way we can know what will happen, as right now stay in the middle and both scenarios are possible.
On the other hand, we have the usd index that is still running to break the january high, and chances to break it are very high, we see on friday some of its up-pressure has been put on hold for various reasons (overbought, week-ending, etc.), but such high is still a very attractive zone to reach.

I remain bearish on gbpusd
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  • #313,957
  • May 19, 2012 8:42pm May 19, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting tunera
Gbp usd is very tricky, it may find support here, and continue the uptrend it is currently in, reaching again the highs (and free sky from there).

Or, it can continue it's under-pressure behaviour to the next support, and from there after a retrace go down to the major supports (and free fall from there).

No way we can know what will happen, as right now stay in the middle and both scenarios are possible.
On the other hand, we have the usd index that is still running to break the january high, and chances to break it are very high, we see...
I don't wish to sound pessimistic, but looking at that USD chart, it looks to me like it is about ready to crash in a big "M" or something similar?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #313,958
  • May 19, 2012 8:54pm May 19, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I don't wish to sound pessimistic, but looking at that USD chart, it looks to me like it is about ready to crash in a big "M" or something similar?
Maybe, anything is possible.
But i think the best thing we can do is evaluate the present moment as it's the only thing that we can rely on, and right now, the short-mid term uptrend of the usd looks intact, also if we look at the VIX chart (daily chart), it's clearly going up without "but" and without "if", an explosion of volatility that is not going to stop anytime soon, so this can suggest us that at the moment what is to be expected is the current trends in the market to get stronger (no cosolidation no bigger retrace etc.).
In other words, better don't bet against the trend, not now, not in the upcoming days/weeks.

But of course anything can happen!

Edit:
Oops forgot to upload the charts
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  • #313,959
  • May 19, 2012 9:20pm May 19, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting tunera
Maybe, anything is possible.
But i think the best thing we can do is evaluate the present moment as it's the only thing that we can rely on, and right now, the short-mid term uptrend of the usd looks intact, also if we look at the VIX chart (daily chart), it's clearly going up without "but" and without "if", an explosion of volatility that is not going to stop anytime soon, so this can suggest us that at the moment what is to be expected is the current trends in the market to get stronger (no cosolidation no bigger retrace etc.).
In other...
What is a VIX chart? Sorry, pls excuse my ignorance.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #313,960
  • May 19, 2012 9:30pm May 19, 2012 9:30pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
What is a VIX chart? Sorry, pls excuse my ignorance.
From wikipedia:
VIX is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period.

Basically, it is a leading indicator of the volatility (in%) that is to be expected in the stock indexes (mainly in s&p500, but they all are somehow correlated) in the next 30 days, the more it go up the more strong movements are going to happen in the financial markets. Now, the fact that it is going strongly up suggest that the volatility may continue to grow in the next month, that's why it is time to be careful as no consolidation/choppy is expected anytime soon (markets was on low volatility, consolidating for the past half year, of course now it's time to rock the boat).
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