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EUR/CHF

  • #6,861
  • May 14, 2012 5:10pm May 14, 2012 5:10pm
Its gonna be ugly in the next months IMO
  • #6,862
  • May 14, 2012 11:46pm May 14, 2012 11:46pm
I guess nobody wanted to hear anything like that. I thought it was a pretty good argument for why the "peg" might hold for a while.
You can lose your shirt if your buttons are loose.
  • #6,863
  • May 15, 2012 1:18am May 15, 2012 1:18am
How is it possible that the SNB sells EUR against CHF in the last quarter and nobody have seen that? Do they sell under another name?

I don't think they will change the EUR/CHF peg into a basket peg.

That was never seen in the history of F/X! A peg was always fixed again one currency (like USD)
  • #6,864
  • May 15, 2012 1:33am May 15, 2012 1:33am
obviously they should not really care about other currencies than eur. the union is their primary partner, whatever happens to the union, it happens to swiss too.

but i do expect something to happen within the next 2 months. the market has stopped buying rumours about raising the peg, so it is better to take actions now compared to the previous months.
  • #6,865
  • May 15, 2012 2:36am May 15, 2012 2:36am
there's no need to sell eurchf from snb if they want to diversify fx account, buy eurchf and then selling eurgpb or eurusd..
peg is defended, fx account is not in eur

and that's it
  • #6,866
  • May 15, 2012 2:39am May 15, 2012 2:39am
Had to buy CHF otherwise the net FX reserve would not decrease...
  • #6,867
  • May 15, 2012 2:56am May 15, 2012 2:56am
Not been here for a while as I have long given up tying up funds on this pair, but I have to say they sure are doing a sterling job of keeping the peg intact,with the Euro weakness we have seen in the last couple of days,you would have thought there would be a little more volatility on this pair ,but it seems that the SNB is very actively involved in the fx market keeping things balanced, and I do not believe they are only buying Euro but selling it as well, the instant the euro regains any strength.
The pair has been ranging from 120.10 to 120.13 (3 pips) despite some fairly volatile activity in the Euro pairs , so my guess is that they are not only manipulating the E/C pair but at the same time balancing their fx reserves .
Looks like this pair will be staying put for a fairly long time.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #6,868
  • May 15, 2012 3:20am May 15, 2012 3:20am
UBS says Swiss PPI data doesn't suggest inflation pressures are increasing, which signals an unchanged Swiss central bank monetary framework for now. "While temporary by its nature we argue that the Swiss National Bank will want to see higher inflation prints before backing off from the minimum exchange rate, introduced back in early September 2011," according to economist Reto Huenerwadel. ([email protected])
  • #6,869
  • May 15, 2012 3:30am May 15, 2012 3:30am
Quoting Kfp
I don't think they will change the EUR/CHF peg into a basket peg.

That was never seen in the history of F/X! A peg was always fixed again one currency (like USD)
Incorrect.

http://www.sgs.gov.sg/macro_overview...view_mone.html
  • #6,870
  • May 15, 2012 4:17am May 15, 2012 4:17am
Quoting Fizzerr
Incorrect.

http://www.sgs.gov.sg/macro_overview...view_mone.html
Ok, thnx for info.
  • #6,871
  • May 15, 2012 4:34am May 15, 2012 4:34am
Quoting pipxster
Had to buy CHF otherwise the net FX reserve would not decrease...
if they sell eur/chf, the chf must go to chf reserves.if you want to be sure if they buy chf back, look in to the cash flow

stay long and strong
  • #6,872
  • May 15, 2012 9:00am May 15, 2012 9:00am
Floor test coming up and i think the SNB will let it go
  • #6,873
  • May 15, 2012 9:02am May 15, 2012 9:02am
Quoting brinks
Floor test coming up and i think the SNB will let it go
Where?
  • #6,874
  • May 15, 2012 9:05am May 15, 2012 9:05am
Through the floor
  • #6,875
  • May 15, 2012 9:09am May 15, 2012 9:09am
Quoting brinks
Through the floor
From what news or what is your reasoning?
  • #6,876
  • May 15, 2012 9:11am May 15, 2012 9:11am
The pressure is going to become to much for them.

They may say when speaking they are prepared to buy euros in unlimited quantities but faced with not knowing what is going to happen to the euro they must have a line in the sand.
  • #6,877
  • May 15, 2012 9:17am May 15, 2012 9:17am
Creidibility is everíthing for these guys...no chance for floor break without communication, besides it was 1,265 EURUSD in january USDCHF above 0,95
they still got the floor.

Do you sell?

Jordan just said yesterday:


DJ SNB To Defend Euro/Franc Floor At All Costs; Ready To Buy FX -Jordan
14-May-2012

ZURICH (Dow Jones)--The head of the Swiss National Bank reiterated Monday the central bank will defend its floor of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro with all possible consequences.

Jordan repeated the SNB is "ready to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities to prevent any appreciation of the franc, and should the Swiss economy be threatened by the franc's gains, is ready to take further measures to counter such trends."

"Any appreciation of the franc will increase the deflationary risks, and threaten the economy, and we have no alternative but to defend the floor at all costs," he said.
  • #6,878
  • May 15, 2012 9:19am May 15, 2012 9:19am
Quoting brinks
The pressure is going to become to much for them.

They may say when speaking they are prepared to buy euros in unlimited quantities but faced with not knowing what is going to happen to the euro they must have a line in the sand.
The line in the sand is 1.20
  • #6,879
  • May 15, 2012 9:25am May 15, 2012 9:25am
Quoting pipxster
Creidibility is everíthing for these guys...no chance for floor break without communication, besides it was 1,265 EURUSD in january USDCHF above 0,95
they still got the floor.

Do you sell?

Jordan just said yesterday:


DJ SNB To Defend Euro/Franc Floor At All Costs; Ready To Buy FX -Jordan
14-May-2012

ZURICH (Dow Jones)--The head of the Swiss National Bank reiterated Monday the central bank will defend its floor of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro with all possible consequences.

Jordan repeated the SNB is "ready to buy foreign currency in unlimited...
No i'm long at the current levels

and i know what you are saying about credibility.but they must have a line in the sand when the pressure becomes to much and they have to say let 1.20 go.

as i said i'm long here so i hope i'am wrong
  • #6,880
  • May 15, 2012 10:22am May 15, 2012 10:22am
greek government has just failed to form..another pressure here for this pair, also for snb commitment..
hopefully they still stand on what they've commit before
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