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1minute 1 trade

  • #241
  • May 13, 2012 8:56am May 13, 2012 8:56am
Quoting Ricky101
Good idea, It is a quick visual backtest, It is based on broker data which I assume that daylight saving time was done right.

If it is a EA, you can fine tune it to sweet spot.
Most brokers make no attempt to adjust for time changes. They are based on a set GMT time. Alpari (I believe it is), adjusts.
  • #242
  • May 13, 2012 9:08am May 13, 2012 9:08am
Quoting Ricky101

- Nov/11/2011 till Mar/14/2012 (16 weeks)
- It should win 45 times, Lose 36 times
- I use win 45 pip/lose 15pip method
Or Win 2025 pip, Lose 540 pip,
- Therefore, Actual win 2025 - 540 = 1485 pips,
-
- Therefore, Winning = 1485 - 324 = 1161 pips,
- Since full 1 lot/ 10 pip = $100 profit, Player should win $11,610 in 4 months
- This Methods can be done by simple EA, However, I am not coder so I don't know how to do it.

.
Now add money management

45 wins at 15% x 3 = 675%
36 losers at 5% = 180%

675 - 180 = 495% return on account

starting with 2 k over 4 months

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = £32k now carry on for 12months .......£8M

OR

Add another swap now 2 trades a day !

Realisticaly though you need to get the large trades in the market without major slippage for me thats using several spread betting companies as there is often a limit on the size you can go

And I draw funds out to trade other systems rather than do back testing

P
  • #243
  • May 13, 2012 9:37am May 13, 2012 9:37am
It is my visual test, I based on broker time with free JF trading time indicator ( Easy for coder to add Daylightsaving) to show London opening time, It doesn't matter daylight saving or not, However, my visual backtest show that it should win.

In Order to win, The (Homework) or key here are for player themself
- Find best winning sweet spot time visually
- Find best manual trading method (Base on their own style) for entry
- Find best Profit taking / stop loss setting ( for exit)

Last week, I checked with free Signal posting from other forum as referenece with this method, I put order in @ london time, It turned 2 losing trades in winning.
  • #244
  • May 13, 2012 9:49am May 13, 2012 9:49am
I back tested this on E/U from 01-01-2011 to 06-30-2011 (6 months) and the results are very good: 47 winners, 81 losers (36.7% probability of winning). Expectancy=0.46, Standard Deviation=1.93, SQN=2.69, Profit Factor=1.7, MaxConsWin=5, MaxConsLos=10.
With MM (SL=5%, TP=15%) would've made about 11 times return on initial account (aprox. 144/yr if extrapolated).
I used 1 minute data from FXDD, adjusted for Summer Time. I tried my best to account for about 1 pip spread and to judge stoch under 50 rule, some of the trades are debatable though. Also sometimes the difference between the openings was few pipettes (1 pippete even, once), I stuck with the rules for this. Some SLs are 1 pip or even less. Too bad US traders can't use 5% SL (would've made only aprox. 40% per yr if 99% leverage used with 1:50).
r u ready?
  • #245
  • May 14, 2012 2:33am May 14, 2012 2:33am
Result (E/U) - Loss
Result sequence: LLLWL;L (semi-colon marks end of week)

Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-14may2012.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #246
  • May 14, 2012 2:37am May 14, 2012 2:37am
still looking for a short trade on this.

Quoting Jpr
Result (E/U) - Loss
Result sequence: LLLWL;L (semi-colon marks end of week)

Chart:

Attachment
  • #247
  • May 14, 2012 2:46am May 14, 2012 2:46am
I try still to learn the setup
so for me it break the low before the long setup was ready, so long was cancel and we wait for a short setup.
also I will exact wait for the stoch, last week I was a little to easy by this

cheers

Quoting Jpr
Result (E/U) - Loss
Result sequence: LLLWL;L (semi-colon marks end of week)

Chart:

Attachment
  • #248
  • May 14, 2012 2:57am May 14, 2012 2:57am
Quoting Jpr
Result (E/U) - Loss
Result sequence: LLLWL;L (semi-colon marks end of week)

Chart:
Attachment
This was no setup to rules for me.
U entered directly beyond London open, when the macd was darkgreen the candle before.
According to the rules - how i understand them - u were one candle too late - so no trade.
now looking for shorts.
  • #249
  • May 14, 2012 3:11am May 14, 2012 3:11am
we are all interpreting the rules differently, which is inevitable in the inital stages i suppose

the close at 500GMT 2887 and the open at 700GMT 2889, indicates no bias for the session, which means no trade for this session

.........for me at least
.
  • #250
  • May 14, 2012 3:24am May 14, 2012 3:24am
thats same I told already last week every broker has diff datafeed
so my have the candle close at 1.28868 and 1.28914.

is that enough bias?

cheers

Quoting PeterE
we are all interpreting the rules differently, which is inevitable in the inital stages i suppose

the close at 500GMT 2887 and the open at 700GMT 2889, indicates no bias for the session, which means no trade for this session

.........for me at least
.
  • #251
  • May 14, 2012 3:39am May 14, 2012 3:39am
4 pips wouldnt be a bias for me with this strategy

and personally i'll be using experience to determine bias, i dont have a definitive rule to determine it at this point in time

Quoting punisher
thats same I told already last week every broker has diff datafeed
so my have the candle close at 1.28868 and 1.28914.

is that enough bias?

cheers
  • #252
  • May 14, 2012 4:10am May 14, 2012 4:10am
no definitive bias at start of session, followed by clear break of the low (500GMT to 700GMT), set-up?......no harm in testing: short 2882, SL 2902, TP 2822
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-05-14_1907.png Size: 28 KB
  • #253
  • May 14, 2012 7:03am May 14, 2012 7:03am
You are right, price did break the low so I shouldn't have taken that trade! My mistake.
  • #254
  • May 14, 2012 7:36am May 14, 2012 7:36am
Winner today Paulus? so its LLLWLW .....
  • #255
  • May 14, 2012 7:48am May 14, 2012 7:48am
WIN 2day i have 3 loss - 1 win:-)
  • #256
  • May 14, 2012 11:06am May 14, 2012 11:06am
Equity £8618
5% £430

Result win £1,290
Equity- £9,908


Again I have to keep mechanical here I cannot look at bias and measure in pips


I started looking for longs.......... 2nd bar of London open broke my lod of the previous session



I then looked for short which means



Macd Green stoch above 80
This happened so then looked for change of green colour to denote down movement and check stoch at this point was still above the 50 level


Trade was entered on spread bet and made its 3 x TP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m1.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #257
  • May 14, 2012 3:43pm May 14, 2012 3:43pm
TP +15% reached

Quoting PeterE
short 2882, SL 2902, TP 2822
  • #258
  • May 14, 2012 3:49pm May 14, 2012 3:49pm
nice wd

P
  • #259
  • May 15, 2012 12:28am May 15, 2012 12:28am
please Paulus tell me you broker for the chart, so I can have the same chart as you for decision.

you see at my broker there was the stoch not over 80, but this normal same I say before in this thread already, if we want the same result we must all make decision on the same broker datafeed and then trade at our broker where ever.

thanks
cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1trade1min_14may12.JPG Size: 53 KB
  • #260
  • May 15, 2012 1:26am May 15, 2012 1:26am
Quoting punisher
please Paulus tell me you broker for the chart, so I can have the same chart as you for decision.

you see at my broker there was the stoch not over 80, but this normal same I say before in this thread already, if we want the same result we must all make decision on the same broker datafeed and then trade at our broker where ever.

thanks
cheers

Do u have Stoch (5,3,3) ?
I follow over Oanda and everything is ok.
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