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EUR/CHF

  • #6,801
  • May 13, 2012 5:12pm May 13, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting hsun85
100k lot?
no i don't have 100.000$ i just long 14 lots (14.000$) overleveraged also! 1 order i have with 2.000 $ show me 6,9$ swap, opened may 3rd
  • #6,802
  • May 13, 2012 5:17pm May 13, 2012 5:17pm
Just my presumption and feel free to comment :

EUR/USD should become lower and lower...this will be the opportunity for SNB to intervene and to buy EUR in EUR/CHF pair and then to swap them for USD when EUR/USD will be stronger. Like this, they will generate profit.

Example of a scenario:
---------------------------
EUR/CHF - 1.20, EUR/USD - 1.27 , USD/CHF - 0.95
1) buy EUR in EUR/CHF till EUR/CHF will be 1.23. As example let's say SNB buy 1000 EUR - they will give in exchange 1200 CHF. Of course, SNB will buy billions of EUR.
2) wait till EUR/USD is 1.30 (as the prediction for this year the EUR/USD will be back even to 1.30 at least once in the next 1-2 months) and sell EUR for USD. Now, when EUR/USD=1.30, they sell those 1000 EUR for 1300 USD.
3) going back to USD/CHF, you will see at a rate of EUR/CHF-1.23 and EUR/USD-1.30, the pair USD/CHF will be the same around 0.95. Now, you sell USD in exchange for CHF. So, 1300 USD will generate 1235 CHF and this is generating a small profit of 35 CHF for only 1000 EUR.

This scenario can be done even starting directly with step 2 (selling EUR that already have in their reserves for USD), then doing step1 (recovering back the EUR reserve) and then finalizing with step 3. If I'm not mistaken, two weeks ago SNB sold many EUR in EUR/USD pair, when pair was around 1.32-1.33. This point can be consider step 2).
Let's see when EUR/USD will be around 1.27 (or maybe lower - if it's lower the profit will be bigger) what will happen with EUR/CHF...if SNB will intervene and raise it to 1.22-1.23.

Does it make sense or not ?
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #6,803
  • May 13, 2012 5:32pm May 13, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting cipid2012
Just my presumption and feel free to comment :

EUR/USD should become lower and lower...this will be the opportunity for SNB to intervene and to buy EUR in EUR/CHF pair and then to swap them for USD when EUR/USD will be stronger. Like this, they will generate profit.

Example of a scenario:
---------------------------
EUR/CHF - 1.20, EUR/USD - 1.27 , USD/CHF - 0.95
1) buy EUR in EUR/CHF till EUR/CHF will be 1.23. As example let's say SNB buy 1000 EUR - they will give in exchange 1200 CHF. Of course, SNB will buy billions of EUR.
2) wait...
of course make sense. SND don't even need to buy EUR, just stop shorting eur/chf and then all we longers will raise the price (i think not to much 1.21-22)
  • #6,804
  • May 13, 2012 7:33pm May 13, 2012 7:33pm
China is the main driver of world inflation for the past few years and now, as long as China is slowing, and giving all the problems in the western world, there will be a deflaional senairo around the world. Therefore I look at things a bit differently, China slows: hold EUR/CHF long, China accelarates: short EUR/CHF (when time matures).
  • #6,805
  • May 13, 2012 10:05pm May 13, 2012 10:05pm
Quoting tunera
Ok guys i've a shocking news for you all buyers of eurchf, eurchf will rise this week.
Don't ask me why, but get ready for finally some action on this stupid pair.
Tunera,

The only way this market will explode higher is if you close all your eur/chf longs. Five minutes later the floor will be raised.
  • #6,806
  • May 13, 2012 10:06pm May 13, 2012 10:06pm
Quoting Fizzerr
Tunera,

The only way this market will explode higher is if you close all your eur/chf longs. Five minutes later the floor will be raised.
I think so, and guess what, i'm going to close them soon, so get ready for some action!
  • #6,807
  • May 13, 2012 10:08pm May 13, 2012 10:08pm
Woohoo! Do it now! I need the cash! Hehe...
  • #6,808
  • May 14, 2012 2:17am May 14, 2012 2:17am
PPI -0.1
  • #6,809
  • May 14, 2012 2:18am May 14, 2012 2:18am
As usual, no reaction....business as usual.
  • #6,810
  • May 14, 2012 2:21am May 14, 2012 2:21am
Quoting multi888
As usual, no reaction....business as usual.
At least I close some longs with 5-6 pips profit at around 1.2012 ...
It's patetic
  • #6,811
  • May 14, 2012 2:25am May 14, 2012 2:25am
considering PPI is a leading indicator of inflation in the months to come, jordan can dream on about inflation creeping back in the 2H.
  • #6,812
  • May 14, 2012 2:30am May 14, 2012 2:30am
DJ MARKET TALK: Any EUR/CHF Rebound Worth Selling - Morgan Stanley
14-May-2012
0725 GMT [Dow Jones] Any EUR/CHF rebound is worth selling, says Morgan Stanley, as a break of the 1.20 SNB peg cannot be ruled out. SNB chairman Jordan speaks today at 1445 GMT, and any bounce in the cross on the back of a likely dovish interpretation of Swiss monetary policy will offer such an opportunity. EUR/CHF is now at 1.2011. ([email protected])


good...
  • #6,813
  • May 14, 2012 2:32am May 14, 2012 2:32am
DJ Swiss Apr Prod Import Price Index -2.3% YY; Seen At -2.0% YY
14-May-2012
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Prod Import Price Index -0.1% MM; Seen At +0.2% MM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Producer Price Index -0.1% On Mo
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Import Price Index 0.0% On Mo
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Producer Price Index -1.8% On Year
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Import Price Index -3.4% On Year
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
  • #6,814
  • May 14, 2012 2:33am May 14, 2012 2:33am
Quoting pipxster
DJ Swiss Apr Prod Import Price Index -2.3% YY; Seen At -2.0% YY
14-May-2012
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Prod Import Price Index -0.1% MM; Seen At +0.2% MM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Producer Price Index -0.1% On Mo
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ Swiss Apr Import Price Index 0.0% On Mo
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2012 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)

* DJ...
Hopefully sooner or later the men at snb will wake up and decide to do something, maybe next year or next decade, smart guys
  • #6,815
  • Edited 2:57am May 14, 2012 2:39am | Edited 2:57am
Quoting tunera
Hopefully sooner or later the men at snb will wake up and decide to do something, maybe next year or next decade, smart guys
"the academists" at SNB (the new governing team as it called) after months of meticulous studies and scientific debates may decide to give up shorting ECHF...would be fantastic
  • #6,816
  • May 14, 2012 3:24am May 14, 2012 3:24am
0802 GMT [Dow Jones] ING says SNB's EUR/CHF 1.20 floor is set for a serious test as concerns about the European debt situation are escalating again, calling into question the credibility of the floor. ING says SNB's next meeting, 14 June, is worth watching closely for potential changes in policy, but any decision depends greatly on developments in Greece and the euro zone ING adds. It recommends GBP/CHF with a target at 1.5250. EUR/CHF at 1.2011, GBP/CHF at 1.4981. ([email protected])
  • #6,817
  • May 14, 2012 3:46am May 14, 2012 3:46am
0805 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss April PPI/import drop on franc says Sarasin but the impact on the annual rate of price inflation is likely to start normalizing from mid-year onwards. "We should start seeing the annual rate moving towards zero as the basis effect of the franc's gains last year fades," says economist Alessandro Bee. "In addition there is 'good deflation' and 'bad deflation' and at the moment we are still experiencing the former, with a strong franc making imported goods cheaper, and strengthening the consumer's purchasing power," he notes. ([email protected])

...superb economy theory consumer purchase power strengthens on imported goods
  • #6,818
  • May 14, 2012 4:42am May 14, 2012 4:42am
Quoting pipxster
0802 GMT [Dow Jones] ING says SNB's EUR/CHF 1.20 floor is set for a serious test as concerns about the European debt situation are escalating again, calling into question the credibility of the floor. ING says SNB's next meeting, 14 June, is worth watching closely for potential changes in policy, but any decision depends greatly on developments in Greece and the euro zone ING adds. It recommends GBP/CHF with a target at 1.5250. EUR/CHF at 1.2011, GBP/CHF at 1.4981. ([email protected])
First JP Morgan, now ING. Its funny to see the analysts turning on this puppy. A few months (even weeks) ago no bank was out talking about going against the SNB.

I guess the 95-5% retail long/short ratio is taking its toll on bank exposure and they are trying to drive their customers out of being long and receiving a daily interest check.
  • #6,819
  • May 14, 2012 4:44am May 14, 2012 4:44am
http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-chf

May 14, 2012 09:41AM GMT

EURCHF
Members' Sentiments
Bullish Bearish

53% 47%

Summary: STRONG SELL

Daily
Moving Averages:Buy (0)Sell (12)
Indicators:Buy (1)Sell (7)
  • #6,820
  • May 14, 2012 4:52am May 14, 2012 4:52am
Yeah we all have stoploss in place below 1.20, if the floor break we lost other 20 pips and good bye
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