EUR/CHF

why do y think the range will break just today or tomorrow ?

Just observing the chart, see how it break the descending wedge on the downside, but found support (impossible to go more down than that!), it tried to weak further for 2 times but found support both times.
Now it's going up again, but notice how this time it's not making spikes like the previous times (it will make soon), it's just going up slowly quietly it looks like the beginning of something potentially serious, but again this eurchf is 3 months that looks like to go up and it end up at the bottom everytime, so i'm not excited at all.
But ok this time looks good.. let's see

Thanks for your insights tim, yes effectively holding a long (considering that we are 10pips from the floor) is still a good thing, this is forex right, everything can happen. Inflation, deflation, snb, whatever, history teach that when a currency stay in a little range for long time the break can innescate a great volatility, and considering that the snb stay on the bid, buy this pair at this price make perfect sense regardless of why it should or why it should not go up from a foundamental prespective. Also everybody attemp to make a inflation/deflation forecast, but you see forecasting the future is never a science, there are too many factors that can intact the forecasting (like the china housing bubble crash for example), in this world economy where every market is inter-connected, the chaos theory apply costantly.

It isjustgoing to be sold off again I'm sure

the sad truth

Operation scorched earth in progress by SNB

I would be happy with a few spikes to 1.202x and 1.203x, let's say 3-4 spikes like this
After all, it's better to buy at bottom support

Me too i would be happy, i'm just waiting to close this at b/e, my patience is finished.

Why not b/e +1?

one month in hell and already lost patience?

anyway, now it's really time to buy..
you'll see...
but don't expect 1.30 or something...

Spanish forexpros: http://www.forexpros.es/currencies/eur-chf-scoreboard

bullish= 61%
Bearish=39%

Thats why George Soros said: "People have to know that the market is unpredictable, but by knowing the market is unpredictable dosent mean you can predict the market". So, what does Soros do? "Trying" his very best to predict. Thats why we are all here in this forum, trying to figure out what the SNB is going to do.

But dont you guys think this is part of SNB's tactics? Making everyone to loose their patience so when the real need for intervention comes, they can do it at a cheaper price. And higher profit because SNB are buying all the EUR at around $1.20~$1.2010 now and when they actually lift the floor up, they are making profits. But I dont expect SNB to lift the floor soon say in the next months or two for two reasons: 1. I feel that the SNB still wants to drive more people out of long EUR/CHF. 2. They have to wait for confirmation of further deterioration of the Swiss economy, in which I think there are 70% of the chances that the Swiss economy will be dragged down or close to zero by the problems around EU and the world.

Anyone agrees with me???

What if, things stand like this:

1) They absolutely don't want the eurchf price to go up at all, just let's take for true the fact that for example at eurchf at 1.25 the cpi YoY would reach over 3% in august, absolutely a thing to avoid.

2) They absolutely don't want the eurchf to go down, as deflation stay around the corner and exporters are already damn angry.

What if they are doing the double game, a floor and a ceiling, like they did when eurchf was at 1.50.
A currency pair that is sold as soon as it goes up 2 pips, and bought when it go down 2 pips, keeping it flat (no movements!) untill the economy feel better, as they said many times, what hitten the swiss economy is not the franc appreciation against the eur, but the speed of this appreciation.
Let's face it, the appreciation of the franc against the eur is a totally legit thing, the eur is a mess full of debts and political and economical stability, countries are in the edge of default, people don't have job, some suicide, some want anarchy, it's getting worst and worst.
The switzerland is a great economy, politically stable, with one of the lowest unemployment rate of the world, their only imperfection is that they are very little economy, and can suffer from extreme fast chf movements.
But apart from the speed, the legit thing for the chf is to appreciate, especially against a currency like the eur.
If they really think that their economy would have some advantage from an eurchf at 1.40 the eurchf now would be at 1.40, if it's at 1.20 it's because it make absolutely no sense eurchf to stay high, the real story of eurchf is that legitimally it should be falling and falling, they just put this fall on hold as the speed was too fast for their little economy that need somehow time to adapt to the changes, but as time goes, their next probable move will be to just remove the floor and allow the pair to fall again (like they did when there was the 1.50 floor, at one point the divergence of eurchf spot price and the real legit eurchf value was too much and they had to let it fall).
This is the real market, the real value of currencies always win at the end, and the real value of eurchf is dropping day after day, at one point in the future they will need to let eurchf fall again, what they are doing now is just give some pill of illusion to traders, so they can hold it at 1.20 without buy that shit currency (eur) that inevitably is going to worth less and less as political and economic events (shit) developes.

Is it safe to stay long eurchf?
Just think about it, it's a non sense, eurchf is overvalued, and is getting more and more overvalued everyday, one day in the future (shrot term, long term, don't know) eurchf will be allowed to fall again as it is right to be, and all those longs will be squeezed like it happened years ago at 1.50.
In the long-term future i'm sure eurchf will be below 1.0, i know once again the greed and the fantasy to make 1000 pips profit risking 10pips is such a strong thing, such a strong illusion.
Illusion
Two currencies, one getting more and more shit everyday, one is one of the strongest of the planet. The shit one to valuate against the best one? Illusion.
I don't want to stay in this illusion anymore, i feel better staying in the truth, ok drop the fantasy of the super high leverage impressive Risk-Reward ratio trade is somehow sad, but it is just a dream, a false reality, it will never happen, not with eurchf, not in this world in these times.
That's why i'm changing my prespective, it's not about patience, is about wake up and face the reality.
We are traders we make money by staying in the truth, all you need to know to make money in this business is simply understand what's happening, and if the understanding is true, if it reflect the true current reality, then you can make money.
Eurchf to go up, illusion.
Then yes, technically the pair is oversold, but ok everytime there is a trend, there are oversold/overbought situations, such words (oversold, overbought) are very dangerous when spoken during a trend, just think about it. There is not such a thing as oversold or overbought when a real trend is in power.

P.s.
Sorry for this post, i see is very pessimistic from a buyer-prespective, but comeon sometime is good to make a fresh thinking about a situation, just to see it from another prespective.

I'm in for the long haul. I have pretty much dedicated one account to this trade. I am happy to sit and wait for six months.

I like your post Tunera (just kidding)
What is so strong (the strongest economy in the world, as you said?) about Swiss economy as you stated in your post. Watches, chocolate, snow... Did you forget that usd/chf was at 1.80 and over 1.50 for a long time. The only reason CHF is up is the money printed and then distributed into economy (TARP, QE and other BS) that through various theft mechanism found its way into Swiss banks. TARP money was not lended to anybody. Banks used it to boost their own stock, when the stocks finaly picked up, they sold it, paid back TARP and the rest swindled into Swiss banks. No miracle, no strong economy, pure theft...

For those (if any, lol) who yesterday followed me, we're putting sl to b/e as price approached yesterday low, from here free fall or not we are cutting the risk on this trade.
(off contest post, forgive me!)


@Mishko212
It's not about strenght, it's about stability, switzerland is one of the most stable economies in the world, that's why very rich investors like to park their assets on their banks.
Personally if i would have a big capital and should choose to put it somewhere/currency, i would prefer to put it on chf more than in eur.
Big moneys, some are money stolen, some are hard earned, some are proceeds of illegal activities maybe, this is not going to be a reason why eur should valuate against chf anytime soon.
I'm still heavily long in eurchf by the way, even if there is no reason to get to 1.40, i think once broken the little range we can have some upside momentum, but i would look to take profits at 1.2150 in the best scenario, or at b/e (around 1.2040) in the worst one.
I just stopped beliving on a fantastic snb intervention to 1.30/1.40, that's all

SNB has to take ec to 1.27 ASAP or face dire consequences.