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EUR/CHF

  • #6,721
  • May 9, 2012 10:10am May 9, 2012 10:10am
http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/e...ent.155237.pdf

Year-on-year inflation was -1.0%, compared with annualised rates of -1.0% in March 2012 and +0.3% in April 2011.

From Swiss federal statistics office. It say the inflation rates (YOY) on april was -1.0%, compared with -1.0% of march (YOY too), (no change).

This looks far more credible, you can come back to the buy side
  • #6,722
  • May 9, 2012 10:12am May 9, 2012 10:12am
Ahah yeah we are a good team, very efficent, no way a stupid website can fool us
  • #6,723
  • May 9, 2012 10:14am May 9, 2012 10:14am
Seems like we are watching very very closely, strong vigilance thanks to our positions
  • #6,724
  • May 9, 2012 10:28am May 9, 2012 10:28am
Wow! You are right, guys, who could have thought, that the data on this site is wrong

But I am still holding on my shorts... Just imagine what could happen just by accident with these amounts of longs and their stop orders...
go go go
  • #6,725
  • May 9, 2012 10:42am May 9, 2012 10:42am
yay it moves 0.001 per day
  • #6,726
  • May 9, 2012 10:53am May 9, 2012 10:53am
Quoting @40
Wow! You are right, guys, who could have thought, that the data on this site is wrong

But I am still holding on my shorts... Just imagine what could happen just by accident with these amounts of longs and their stop orders...
I draw now my conclusion that with months of strenuous work snb put the pair to the point where selling the pair looks better rr than buying it.

for me, good

it looks like that there will maybe weeks when we will be sitting 0+1 pips to the floor
  • #6,727
  • May 9, 2012 10:56am May 9, 2012 10:56am
I can't resist entering in a short position... I just can't help it It's stronger than me....
go go go
  • #6,728
  • May 9, 2012 10:57am May 9, 2012 10:57am
Quoting @40
Wow! You are right, guys, who could have thought, that the data on this site is wrong

But I am still holding on my shorts... Just imagine what could happen just by accident with these amounts of longs and their stop orders...
There were a massive debate here some weeks ago about what would this cause to swiss econ and snb credibility, but I think every veteran member here reached his own inner equilibrium and silence realted to this matter.
  • #6,729
  • May 9, 2012 3:05pm May 9, 2012 3:05pm
Few posts ago, someone of you wrote how to pare losses by using small variations in the range of EURCHF. Since then EURCHF range has narrowed even further, making this strategy impractical. We have evidence that SNB is watching this thread. Please publish something that can disorient them!
  • #6,730
  • May 9, 2012 4:18pm May 9, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting @40
I can't resist entering in a short position... I just can't help it It's stronger than me....
what's your swap for shorts?
I bet you'll loose at least 1 pip every week.
  • #6,731
  • May 9, 2012 6:26pm May 9, 2012 6:26pm
very difficult pair.

no scalping is possible. no more easy money. swaps dont give you good money guys. very high R/R. of course that small profit for just waitting is not bad, but to buy 1 lot to gain 2 euro per day? R/R is terrible.

yes 1,20 holds but i would not buy for the rollover profit.

be careful of next snb interest rate conference at 14/06. if they raise or remove peg it will be in the interest rate decesion every three months.

peg will never broken for stop loss hunting, to my opinion. snb will be named as a stop loss hunter then. that is an embarassing title. they are market manipulators not a hedge fund.

but at this time is not a pair i want to buy. i have sell orders at 11975 in case they hit with no take profit.
There shall be no QE3
  • #6,732
  • May 9, 2012 8:20pm May 9, 2012 8:20pm
Happy to see that the sellers are coming
  • #6,733
  • May 9, 2012 9:42pm May 9, 2012 9:42pm
mmmmm..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mmm.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #6,734
  • May 10, 2012 1:52am May 10, 2012 1:52am
To be honest, ABSOLUTLY nothing interesting about this pair for now. Chart is saying the same story, news are doing anything. Full stagnation, at very low Volumen and range- take possition, up or down, and wait wait wait.
Simply it is patient test, and as daily/weekly trader im used to such testing
  • #6,735
  • May 10, 2012 2:12am May 10, 2012 2:12am
Quoting Haqu
To be honest, ABSOLUTLY nothing interesting about this pair for now. Chart is saying the same story, news are doing anything. Full stagnation, at very low Volumen and range- take possition, up or down, and wait wait wait.
Simply it is patient test, and as daily/weekly trader im used to such testing
what is your position long or short?
  • #6,736
  • May 10, 2012 2:14am May 10, 2012 2:14am
http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/2273.html

what about this, is a long reading but it may help understand the whole situation on eurchf and snb.
  • #6,737
  • May 10, 2012 2:22am May 10, 2012 2:22am
I am long, based on few things:

1) A resistance, which is working for such a long time, is a very strong resistance, not to mention psychological aspect of fear connected to possibility of intervention.

2) A pair in phase of consolidation near strong resistance is gathering forces to make a big movement- in my opinion up, because of point 3:

3) CHF is overvalued in every cross, and this situation can't last forever. One day problems will get less serious in Eurozone, we will get back on the patch of growth and people will turn back to more agressive currencies than safe-heaven CHF.

4) SNB done one intervention, can't say it was a failed one, they reached they go, so there is always a small possibility, on which i'm not counting to be honest, that they will rise the boarder line if it will be needed.

In my opinion EUR/CHF will be slowly heading north, but when, can't say that. Anyway, got possitive swaps, my deposit isn't extending even 20 % of my account, so i can hold it, make intra-day profit on more volatile pairs and just chill out studing to CFA
  • #6,738
  • May 10, 2012 2:33am May 10, 2012 2:33am
Quoting tunera
http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/2273.html

what about this, is a long reading but it may help understand the whole situation on eurchf and snb.
1.22 would be fine for me.

and never is a very long time
  • #6,739
  • May 10, 2012 2:44am May 10, 2012 2:44am
For those who like the "Goverment influenced safe-heaven" pairs they UJ may be a better idea - More action, and something you can really tell from the chart.
We are getting there near 68.2 fibo retracment of last up movement, and also UJ have broken long range downtrend line. Additionaly, the 80.000 lvl is now resistance and a good daily break from it, may lead to a wave of bullish movement. On the other hand, falling belove 78.70 would be a strong bearish signal
  • #6,740
  • May 10, 2012 3:03am May 10, 2012 3:03am
Quoting brinks
1.22 would be fine for me.

and never is a very long time
So, imports inflation now is getting high, we see that eurchf is pegged on the downside (floor) because of deflation and exports problem, on the upside we have imports inflation problems, this may explain why the snb buy at 1.20 and sell above it, scary.
This pair can really stay in this thight range for months to come, and when total inflation (as snb forecast) will grow up again, the only thing to do will be remove the floor and allow the pair to fall.

Make sense?

In other words, i'm starting to re-consider the whole buy-eurchf thing, just thinking about get out from this baby, yes get out, close my trades, take the loss. And never look back.

Edit:
i forgot to post this http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/4916.html , another interesting lecture
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