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EUR/CHF

  • #6,701
  • May 9, 2012 3:35am May 9, 2012 3:35am
Quoting brinks
Yes when i say the franc wont weaken i mean against the euro
Yeah i know, i was just wanting to post my super rainbow chart ahahah
  • #6,702
  • May 9, 2012 3:38am May 9, 2012 3:38am
Quoting tunera
I think the swiss franc is on its own way to a nice "natural" devaluation, just look at the swiss franc index chart (images attached).

There problem with the eur is that swiss franc and eur looks like to be the same currency, you see the fluctuations between them (eurchf movements) are almost 0, that's why at least against the eur, they may need to intervene.
What kind of picture is that http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
  • #6,703
  • May 9, 2012 5:34am May 9, 2012 5:34am
Seriously i'm near very near to close all my trades and say fuck you to eurchf, this is a joke, 1-2 range everyday, i'm closing my trades soon, somebody stop me, my faith is tottering.
  • #6,704
  • May 9, 2012 5:54am May 9, 2012 5:54am
Quoting tunera
Seriously i'm near very near to close all my trades and say fuck you to eurchf, this is a joke, 1-2 range everyday, i'm closing my trades soon, somebody stop me, my faith is tottering.
I think SNB is selling EURCHF all the time a little bit to bring it down very calm near the peg. So they can be sure, that there are no more (new) short traders, because its not profitable any more (only a few pips to the peg) but risky for them (SNB might intervene). Instead there are coming more and more buyers in the market (the cheaper they get EURCHF). Result is this kind of balance, we are seeing these days (always going a little bit lower). Then, the day will come, when SNB don't sell EUROs anymore. That's the time EURCHF might fly...

(only my opinion)
  • #6,705
  • May 9, 2012 5:57am May 9, 2012 5:57am
Quoting Busenfreund
I think SNB is selling EURCHF all the time a little bit to bring it down very calm near the peg. So they can be sure, that there are no more (new) short traders, because its not profitable any more (only a few pips to the peg) but risky for them (SNB might intervene). Instead there are coming more and more buyers in the market (the cheaper they get EURCHF). Result is this kind of balance, we are seeing these days (always going a little bit lower). Then, the day will come, when SNB don't sell EUROs anymore. That's the time EURCHF might fly...

(only...
Yes technically is ipersold, oversold oversold oversold after the oversold and more oversold condition as oversold as i never seen something more oversold and ready to explode as this, but it the more time pass the more is oversold and.. i feel like a man who his wife is giving birth to his son, and waiting outside the room, stressful wait.. yeah this pair is like a son for me
  • #6,706
  • May 9, 2012 6:04am May 9, 2012 6:04am
Quoting Busenfreund
I think SNB is selling EURCHF all the time a little bit to bring it down very calm near the peg. So they can be sure, that there are no more (new) short traders, because its not profitable any more (only a few pips to the peg) but risky for them (SNB might intervene). Instead there are coming more and more buyers in the market (the cheaper they get EURCHF). Result is this kind of balance, we are seeing these days (always going a little bit lower). Then, the day will come, when SNB don't sell EUROs anymore. That's the time EURCHF might fly...

(only...
cant agree more
my only problem is that jordan maybe targeting 150bln reserve level so should wait another 1-2 years, if the swap conditions are stable, Im okay.

BTW someone was asking put option hedge, for 6 months strike near floor with ko @1,19 would cost around 100 pips. as the option doesnt price the floor declaration I think its too expensive. normal ko option would cost 60% at ko level 1,19 for 6 months pfff.
  • #6,707
  • May 9, 2012 6:18am May 9, 2012 6:18am
Quoting Busenfreund
I think SNB is selling EURCHF all the time a little bit to bring it down very calm near the peg. So they can be sure, that there are no more (new) short traders, because its not profitable any more (only a few pips to the peg) but risky for them (SNB might intervene). Instead there are coming more and more buyers in the market (the cheaper they get EURCHF). Result is this kind of balance, we are seeing these days (always going a little bit lower). Then, the day will come, when SNB don't sell EUROs anymore. That's the time EURCHF might fly...

(only...
not only urs
  • #6,708
  • May 9, 2012 6:57am May 9, 2012 6:57am
Quoting tunera
Seriously i'm near very near to close all my trades and say fuck you to eurchf, this is a joke, 1-2 range everyday, i'm closing my trades soon, somebody stop me, my faith is tottering.

I feel the same and everybody too in the market.

I remember the EUR/CHF bull and bear expectations on http://www.forexpros.de/currencies/e...-forward-rates

It was 99% bullish to 1 % bearish two months ago.
Now it's 72 % bullish to 28 % bearish at the moment.

We can only wait and stay on our longs.
The peg will not break!!!

Maybe one day we see something surprising in the EURO zone like kicking out Greece --> and then EUR/CHF will explode.
  • #6,709
  • May 9, 2012 7:12am May 9, 2012 7:12am
I will be holding my long i have never expected a massive intervention but more a slow rise up from this level
  • #6,710
  • May 9, 2012 7:21am May 9, 2012 7:21am
just sold mine for a 5 pips lost, i'm outta here
  • #6,711
  • May 9, 2012 7:43am May 9, 2012 7:43am
Quoting Kfp
I feel the same and everybody too in the market.

I remember the EUR/CHF bull and bear expectations on http://www.forexpros.de/currencies/e...-forward-rates

It was 99% bullish to 1 % bearish two months ago.
Now it's 72 % bullish to 28 % bearish at the moment.

We can only wait and stay on our longs.
The peg will not break!!!

Maybe one day we see something surprising in the EURO zone like kicking out Greece --> and then EUR/CHF will explode.
no, on that day the ez will explode.
  • #6,712
  • May 9, 2012 8:10am May 9, 2012 8:10am
Quoting Kfp
I feel the same and everybody too in the market.

I remember the EUR/CHF bull and bear expectations on http://www.forexpros.de/currencies/e...-forward-rates

It was 99% bullish to 1 % bearish two months ago.
Now it's 72 % bullish to 28 % bearish at the moment.

We can only wait and stay on our longs.
The peg will not break!!!

Maybe one day we see something surprising in the EURO zone like kicking out Greece --> and then EUR/CHF will explode.
the peg will explode not eur/chf, and that's clear now that Greece will be kicked out
  • #6,713
  • May 9, 2012 8:28am May 9, 2012 8:28am
DJ Strong Franc Puts Europeans Off Visiting Switzerland In March
09-May-2012
ZURICH (Dow Jones)--Switzerland posted the biggest monthly drop in foreign visitor numbers for almost three years as the strength of the Swiss franc and sluggish European Union economies kept tourists away, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed Wednesday.

But the Alpine country remains an attractive destination for Asian tourists, with the number of Chinese visitors increasing by almost a third from a year-earlier.

The total number of foreign guests staying overnight in Swiss hotels declined at an annual rate of 12% in March, the sharpest drop since May 2009, with 17% fewer visitors from Europe. Of this total, the number of Germans--the most important single customer group for Swiss hoteliers--slid 24%, the statistics office said.

Switzerland is traditionally a popular holiday destination for Europeans, particularly for winter skiing and summer hiking, but the Swiss franc's surge to near parity with the euro in August last year has made it more pricey, particularly for average-income families in the neighboring euro-region countries.

By contrast to Europe, robust economic growth in many emerging-market countries has spurred demand for Swiss package holidays, with the number of tourists from Asia climbing 13% in March from year-earlier levels.

The number of visitors from China, excluding Hong Kong, showed the largest increase with a gain of 30% in March, the data showed.

Switzerland's tourism industry has received government financial backing as it tries to offset its image as an increasingly pricey holiday destination, and the coming season is likely to be tough for the hotel and restaurant industry, the BAKBasel economic institute said in December.
  • #6,714
  • May 9, 2012 8:33am May 9, 2012 8:33am
I bet nex week we'll see 1.203 again on EURCHF
  • #6,715
  • May 9, 2012 8:59am May 9, 2012 8:59am
Quoting rcrist
I bet nex week we'll see 1.203 again on EURCHF
dont you think that mr. jordan will see this as an opportunity to offload some more EUR, and shorts it around 20135?
  • #6,716
  • May 9, 2012 9:46am May 9, 2012 9:46am
I just opened my first short position, stop 50 pips. Look at this BIG spike of the inflation in Switzerland. They have to stop selling franks ...

http://sobstvenbiznes.net/photogallery.php?photo_id=55
go go go
  • #6,717
  • May 9, 2012 9:55am May 9, 2012 9:55am
Quoting @40
I just opened my first short position, stop 50 pips. Look at this BIG spike of the inflation in Switzerland. They have to stop selling franks ...

http://sobstvenbiznes.net/photogallery.php?photo_id=55

so they have gone from minus 1% inflation to 1% inflation in a month
  • #6,718
  • May 9, 2012 10:00am May 9, 2012 10:00am
Quoting brinks
so they have gone from minus 1% inflation to 1% inflation in a month
Looks like bullshit or maybe they forgot to write the "-" before the numbers, for now that one is the only website with such a data, my initial approach is to classify it as probable bullshit. I'll search for other sources regarding April yty CPI, however I remember to ha read on a Reuters article about the number to be below -1%, we must be careful Internet is full of shit nowadays.
  • #6,719
  • May 9, 2012 10:03am May 9, 2012 10:03am
Quoting tunera
Looks like bullshit or maybe they forgot to write the "-" before the numbers, for now that one is the only website with such a data, my initial approach is to classify it as probable bullshit. I'll search for other sources regarding April yty CPI, however I remember to ha read on a Reuters article about the number to be below -1%, we must be careful Internet is full of shit nowadays.
I agree it looks wrong .The yoy inflation just released was -1% against a expected -0.9%
  • #6,720
  • May 9, 2012 10:09am May 9, 2012 10:09am
Even -1,1% apr YoY when Eu harmonised
Core cpi Yoy apr -1,5%

Pls dear @40 stop bs-ing us
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