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EUR/CHF

  • #6,541
  • Edited 1:00pm May 4, 2012 12:44pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting tunera
Seriously, this pair will break out soon.
The fact that it still don't move and remain in a range more and more little, add only power to what will be the move innescated by the breakout.
In other words, the less it move now, the more it will move later.
Exit for 10-20pips of profit imo is a very stupid (forgive me, really i'm not looking to offend nobody, there is absolutely nothing personal on anything i write) a trader can do.
There are two things that make profit, and that a trader/investor should do in order to make money:

1) buy or sell
2)...
I seconds that with full heart! Notice that over last year this pair went over from 1.3500 to almost 1.0000 (almost 3,5 k pips ) and went back from there to 1.25000 (2,5k pips) and back to 1.2000 (500 pips). Not to mention, that during last four years it went for 4,8k pips(to our current position, which is around 28%) or around 6,7k pips to the historical low level( which is around 40%). There is reason for exhaustion in this pair, which with addition of intervention threat from SNB created quite stagnation. But the range of 25 pips in which the pair is mowing for last month may indicates that sides are gathering strength(also look at the volumen - it is so low that probably there are not many big player involved in it), and waiting for the right moment to place their orders. So there are 2 things that we can do:



1) Leave this pair for the time being, with risk of losing opportunity where strong movement will occur (And there is almost always a very strong movement after such stagnation)



2) Or wait patiently and collect swaps while investing in other pair (ofc if you haven’t placed ALL of your money in EUR/CHF).



I will wait anyway, got too much studying nowaday so cannot concentrate on technical fully- that is why this situation is kinda perfect for me .
  • #6,542
  • May 4, 2012 12:54pm May 4, 2012 12:54pm
I don't think SNB will move the down line anytime soon; they are not gamblers or traders, for now 1.20000 level is working almost as miracle, or nightmare (scaring everyone off) and with all the economic problem of EU and the rest of the world it is too risky to take drastically actions involving buying lots of Euro for example. I think that the situation will clear up by itself, without need of SNB intervention ( so as it should be, and I think SNB is also hoping for that) because “everything flows*" and cannot stay steady for a long time, especially in derivatives.

*Heraclitus
  • #6,543
  • May 4, 2012 1:01pm May 4, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting alesss
seriously, do you think that SNB is thinking move the peg?

Do you know if there are different opinions among members of SNB?
no there is not any official talking of that kind from SNB.

i only said it as my feeling. when on 15 of March there were rumors for new peg raise, at same time SNB were selling euro at 12070 average price. i dont like that.


100% is sure. peg will be removed one day. if it goes first to 130 or 122 or 125 it is ok. your speculation is if it goes where you want or not before SNB exit peg.
There shall be no QE3
  • #6,544
  • May 4, 2012 1:06pm May 4, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting Haqu

2) Or wait patiently and collect swaps while investing in other pair (ofc if you haven’t placed ALL of your money in EUR/CHF).

I use Saxo Bank and I have long positions. But I lose money with the rollover.

What broker do you use?
  • #6,545
  • May 4, 2012 2:00pm May 4, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting alesss
I use Saxo Bank and I have long positions. But I lose money with the rollover.

What broker do you use?
Try ibfx or fxcm(here add +5 pip to your sl) both positive swap, I was also at saxo they're fair but expensive so left 'em
  • #6,546
  • May 4, 2012 2:42pm May 4, 2012 2:42pm
Again nothing
  • #6,547
  • May 4, 2012 2:44pm May 4, 2012 2:44pm
Jordan is playing with our nerves
  • #6,548
  • May 4, 2012 2:54pm May 4, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting fanta
Jordan is playing with our nerves


Jordan is intervening all time, but I don't how. Jordan sold euros on march and he bought euros on april. So I dont understand

Now we have a new president in the SNB and I hope they have some plan. I hope that they apply it as soon as possible
  • #6,549
  • May 4, 2012 3:21pm May 4, 2012 3:21pm
Quoting tunera
Seriously, this pair will break out soon.
The fact that it still don't move and remain in a range more and more little, add only power to what will be the move innescated by the breakout.
In other words, the less it move now, the more it will move later.
Exit for 10-20pips of profit imo is a very stupid (forgive me, really i'm not looking to offend nobody, there is absolutely nothing personal on anything i write) a trader can do.
There are two things that make profit, and that a trader/investor should do in order to make money:

1) buy or...

I have very weak swap on one of my accounts so I'm planning to give up those positions and possible transfer the money to another broker with much better spread/swap. I'm waiting for a good rate to close. Even if it goes up after this I won't be sorry as I will make profit on other positions.
I think one can keep some positions permanently waiting for a break up and also do some scalping..
Anyway I will concentrate on EURUSD next week as it is below 1.31 now. Might be a good time to buy when the right moment comes.
Strong activity on EURUSD....
  • #6,550
  • May 4, 2012 3:30pm May 4, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting rcrist
I have very weak swap on one of my accounts so I'm planning to give up those positions and possible transfer the money to another broker with much better spread/swap. I'm waiting for a good rate to close. Even if it goes up after this I won't be sorry as I will make profit on other positions.
I think one can keep some positions permanently waiting for a break up and also do some scalping..
Anyway I will concentrate on EURUSD next week as it is below 1.31 now. Might be a good time to buy when the right moment comes.
Strong activity on EURUSD.......
Good, i have something like the sensation that eurchf is making joke of all us, is making joke of all the market.
What the fuck? I'm starting to be really confused
  • #6,551
  • May 4, 2012 4:24pm May 4, 2012 4:24pm
Ok, good weekend to all, if hollande win the france elections we may see a strong selloff on the eur pairs (eurusd just closed the week below 1.31, not a good sign).
Said this, our friend-enemy snb will be called to fight the bears on the eurchf, and it may be a strong fight, next week there will be some chaos, the time is almost here. Take care!
  • #6,552
  • Edited 4:39pm May 4, 2012 4:26pm | Edited 4:39pm
http://m.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c400be8...44feab49a.html


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...ande-hysteria/

Very good 2 pieces on Hollande, Merkel-Sarky go home, end this depression now.
Should be eur positive at least mid term.
  • #6,553
  • May 4, 2012 4:38pm May 4, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting alesss
Jordan is intervening all time, but I don't how. Jordan sold euros on march and he bought euros on april. So I dont understand

Now we have a new president in the SNB and I hope they have some plan. I hope that they apply it as soon as possible
Sold higher bought lower, sounds great...:Jordan is the master of EURCHF
  • #6,554
  • May 4, 2012 4:39pm May 4, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting pipxster
http://m.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c400be8...44feab49a.html

Very good piece on Hollande, Merkel-Sarky go home, end this depression now.
Should be eur positive at least mid term.
I don't think so. Hollande is keynesian and he wants more stimulates. So he wants to print euros and euro will go down.
  • #6,555
  • Edited 4:58pm May 4, 2012 4:46pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting alesss
I don't think so. Hollande is keynesian and he wants more stimulates. So he wants to print euros and euro will go down.

Yes but EUR is toasted because of no growth, short term maybe down but then markets will realise it is good, UK had wose numbers than Spain, still GBP is great, why?has a CB with a print press and dare to use it.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...nish-prisoner/


Same applies to denmark vs. finland, same numbers
but much much higher yield for Finns.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...ng-not-rotten/

Money printing->growth(no slump at least)->good for currency(ok not short term)
  • #6,556
  • May 4, 2012 5:11pm May 4, 2012 5:11pm
But Hollande will rise the income tax to rich people till 75%. So rich people will go to take refuge to switzerland and CHF will strengthen
  • #6,557
  • May 4, 2012 5:35pm May 4, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting pipxster
Yes but EUR is toasted because of no growth, short term maybe down but then markets will realise it is good, UK had wose numbers than Spain, still GBP is great, why?has a CB with a print press and dare to use it.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...nish-prisoner/


Same applies to denmark vs. finland, same numbers
but much much higher yield for Finns.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...ng-not-rotten/

Money printing->growth(no slump at least)->good for currency(ok not short...
printing money is good for euro because euro is a risk-on asset and printing money make investors to looking to buy risk assets.

but this pair has to do with SNB and peg only. So e/u might move higher when ECB print more and more money, but this one, well i am not so sure.


ECB already print money and buys bad assets (prints more than FED and BoE already), bundesbank know that and are not really happy buying bad assets, and bad assets are still bad assets even if a Central bank buys it.
The difference with BoE and FED is that bond holders of european debt are not sure that they wont take a haircut like in USA that there is a goverment that pays bond holders.
In europe case nobody want to buy european debt, and if ECB buys bonds, they just buy something that nobody in the world wants to buy.

only way for europe to get out of debt crisis is bond holders to know that they will get paid. Situation now is that many countries will not find it easy to pay them. Politicians says that they will be no more haircuts, but really nobody (I dont) believe them.

in simple words : One currence and different debts, means debts cannot be paid, and debts that cannot be paid they wont be paid.
There shall be no QE3
  • #6,558
  • May 5, 2012 3:48am May 5, 2012 3:48am
election in greece and france this week end!


if i had stoploss between 1.19 and 1.20 id be very worried.
  • #6,559
  • May 5, 2012 3:58am May 5, 2012 3:58am
Quoting matheousse
election in greece and france this week end!


if i had stoploss between 1.19 and 1.20 id be very worried.

Why? SNB buys unlimited quantities. Peg will not break. U'r a basher?
  • #6,560
  • May 5, 2012 4:43am May 5, 2012 4:43am
Quoting alesss
I use Saxo Bank and I have long positions. But I lose money with the rollover.

What broker do you use?
Try FXPro. They pay about $3.1/lot/day for EURCHF long.
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