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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #310,901
  • May 2, 2012 3:41am May 2, 2012 3:41am
1 and 3min classic bullish div plays indicated the move up off yesterday's lo/that 5 fib cluster/Daily S1, mni also saying bids there...before the data , -then the data effect at 0930

G/L
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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ex member
  • #310,902
  • May 2, 2012 3:42am May 2, 2012 3:42am
Quoting A-speculator
anyway, line in the sand imho is 6230..

1.6320 i think is the top for 1.6060
surely cant break this without a retrace if it does then shorts at 1.59 - 1.61 are finished
  • #310,903
  • May 2, 2012 3:43am May 2, 2012 3:43am
fibs at the lo are 50% 6077-, 38.2% 6007-23.6%'s of 5805- (av 5803 and 5807 swings) and 5817-, and 76.4% 6151- all to 6300. Daily S1 there too as well as yesterday's lo.

G/L
ex member
  • #310,904
  • May 2, 2012 3:46am May 2, 2012 3:46am
Quoting nAVIN2007
1.6320 i think is the top for 1.6060
surely cant break this without a retrace if it does then shorts at 1.59 - 1.61 are finished
shorts at 1.59 - 1.61 are SCREWED!
The only way not to think about money is to have a great deal of it
  • #310,905
  • May 2, 2012 3:46am May 2, 2012 3:46am
testing the ceiling again . . .

hmmm
The market will deceive you. Make your own judgement.
  • #310,906
  • May 2, 2012 3:47am May 2, 2012 3:47am
20 day atr is down to 90pips, and 20week atr down to just 244pips ! Contracting raanges atm !

G/L
ex member
  • #310,907
  • May 2, 2012 3:52am May 2, 2012 3:52am
Quoting Makavelli7
shorts at 1.59 - 1.61 are SCREWED!

this is not the time to long..1.6320 is a brick wall..without a retrace..
I will go as far as saying..i will give u vouch if it breaks without a retrace..im this sure

if it breaks u have a brilliant trade
  • #310,908
  • May 2, 2012 3:56am May 2, 2012 3:56am
Nav, how do you know it's brick wall it hasn't been tested yet ? Do you mean the descending trend line, Thanks ?

G/L

Quoting nAVIN2007
this is not the time to long..1.6320 is a brick wall..without a retrace..
I will go as far as saying..i will give u vouch if it breaks without a retrace..im this sure

if it breaks u have a brilliant trade
ex member
  • #310,909
  • May 2, 2012 3:57am May 2, 2012 3:57am
Quoting nAVIN2007
this is not the time to long..1.6320 is a brick wall..without a retrace..
I will go as far as saying..i will give u vouch if it breaks without a retrace..im this sure

if it breaks u have a brilliant trade
eagerly looking forward to it! on second thought, I think ill start the celebration
The only way not to think about money is to have a great deal of it
  • #310,910
  • May 2, 2012 3:57am May 2, 2012 3:57am
Quoting Makavelli7
shorts at 1.59 - 1.61 are SCREWED!
not always dude. If you play with way less lot size as compared to your equity and you use islamic account actually there's no problem with going short at 1.61 or 1.60 considering there wont be any swap. Im quite sure in the next 1 month it will retest the 1.59-1.60 area,just look at history. Once it was 1.67 last year but one month later it went back to 1.60 so i dont see any problem.


personally i believe it could retest the 1.63 or 1.635 area but no problem with that. My margin can hold me up to 1.68 and i have pending order at 1.64

btw, myself has short position at 1.6255 and not 1.59-1.60.
  • #310,911
  • May 2, 2012 4:00am May 2, 2012 4:00am
Quoting rsg10z
not always dude. If you play with way less lot size as compared to your equity and you use islamic account actually there's no problem with going short at 1.61 or 1.60 considering there wont be any swap. Im quite sure in the next 1 month it will retest the 1.59-1.60 area,just look at history. Once it was 1.67 last year but one month later it went back to 1.60 so i dont see any problem.


personally i believe it could retest the 1.63 or 1.635 area but no problem with that. My margin can hold me up to 1.68 and i have pending order at 1.64

btw, myself...
nice :-)
The market will deceive you. Make your own judgement.
  • #310,912
  • May 2, 2012 4:03am May 2, 2012 4:03am
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001044357/en
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #310,913
  • May 2, 2012 4:03am May 2, 2012 4:03am
Would you say that the NFP result coming out later on will send this thing one way or the other? how much influence could it have.
  • #310,914
  • May 2, 2012 4:06am May 2, 2012 4:06am
Gbp is strong uptend ,dont be supprised ,lets see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #310,915
  • May 2, 2012 4:07am May 2, 2012 4:07am
Pivot and tl ,were going down

Quoting bbmac
Nav, how do you know it's brick wall it hasn't been tested yet ? Do you mean the descending trend line, Thanks ?

G/L
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #310,916
  • May 2, 2012 4:08am May 2, 2012 4:08am
Quoting bbmac
Nav, how do you know it's brick wall it hasn't been tested yet ? Do you mean the descending trend line, Thanks ?

G/L

its the third touch to make the trendline so if the lines are correct it shouldnt break as its only now legitimate

hence the brick wall (the lines dont break on the third touch) afterwards possible if the lines are correct

and at this point there confluence in both directions of the trendline, increasing the chances of one of the lines being right
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #310,917
  • May 2, 2012 4:12am May 2, 2012 4:12am
it's not what it was in respect of it's effect on the market but can still see violent knee-jerk (+?) reactions particularly if market is surprised (ie revisions to previous and way beyond/below forecast)..like all data it canm move the market and it remains one of the 'biggest' if not the biggest known and scheduled event risks on this pairing and other instruments. Re brokers - sudden fast movements give brokers even more licence to hit stops and slip orders so you just gotta be cautious. Also effect on this pairing even with a good number could still see it go up as the traditional sell £/buy $ on a good nfp number may be super imposed as a buy risk play ie the risk on/risk off thing we have seen since 2008 - so in this risk on scenario with good u.s data it's sell $ and buy riskier assets.

Basically, anything can happen and best is to trade what you see (if anything) or stay flat.

G/L



Quoting pippaholic
Would you say that the NFP result coming out later on will send this thing one way or the other? how much influence could it have.
ex member
  • #310,918
  • May 2, 2012 4:12am May 2, 2012 4:12am
Next limit down 6197 , that is can top at & above it & if breaks confirmation down 6184 to go & upside 6238 breaks & confirmation 6247 to go top .likely down side even if limited , abortion after try protect .pb to continue down .so watching 6197.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #310,919
  • May 2, 2012 4:13am May 2, 2012 4:13am
thanks as always.

G/L

Quoting nAVIN2007
its the third touch to make the trendline so if the lines are correct it shouldnt break as its only now legitimate

hence the brick wall (the lines dont break on the third touch) afterwards possible if the lines are correct

and at this point there confluence in both directions of the trendline, increasing the chances of one of the lines being right
ex member
  • #310,920
  • May 2, 2012 4:14am May 2, 2012 4:14am
down
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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