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EUR/CHF

  • #6,381
  • May 1, 2012 6:34am May 1, 2012 6:34am
get ready, can't go more down! a move up 20+ pips at least is coming
  • #6,382
  • May 1, 2012 6:44am May 1, 2012 6:44am
Quoting heraclitus
get ready, can't go more down! a move up 20+ pips at least is coming
for what reason?
when?
  • #6,383
  • Edited 7:28am May 1, 2012 6:57am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting tunera
http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/4447.html

Interesting article, point out the fact that the current eur reserves of the snb are at lowest level since 2008, this mean that in this months snb was probably one of the major seller in eurchf.
Food for thought
oh, no way they sell ECHF IMO, I think this is because further diversification which is good:

GMT [Dow Jones] The Swiss National Bank's reserves of the British pound almost triple, reaching 8.5% in 1Q, up from 3% at the start of 2011, according to ING. GBP has a clear opportunity to grab a larger market share in reserve managers' portfolios, as long as the country retains its triple-A rating, it notes. ING adds reserve managers are increasingly showing signs of moving away from traditional G3 currencies and towards GBP, CAD, AUD and to a certain extent SEK and NOK, and even RUB. GBP/USD trades at 1.6219.([email protected])

the reserves look quite pretty (ie: what will they do with alot of EUr they buy: they swap it)
  • #6,384
  • May 1, 2012 7:38am May 1, 2012 7:38am
Quoting coolkaps4u
For tense traders: how we can close EURCHF positions.

How to close open position (High leverage) 1.2050-1.2060 price

1) if you have more money to put open similar position 1.2010-11 and close 1.2020 weekly
You have to do 3 times to book profit and than book losses on existing position so you will be equal
I think it could take 3 weeks to do.
If you are lucky, you may able to average out at 1.2030 at one shot and close all the positions

Still want to trade this pair after closing , you can open at new levels.....
Hehehee ... only if you have enough money left into account to open a similar position size.
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #6,385
  • May 1, 2012 8:22am May 1, 2012 8:22am
Inserted Video
  • #6,386
  • May 1, 2012 8:53am May 1, 2012 8:53am
Quoting cipid2012
Hehehee ... only if you have enough money left into account to open a similar position size.
True... Lot of traders don't have money to trade.. as they put all in one trade...
Correct me if I am wrong
  • #6,387
  • May 1, 2012 9:24am May 1, 2012 9:24am
Quoting matheousse
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnHJPH7yflE
IT'S ON FIRE!!!!!!!
  • #6,388
  • May 1, 2012 9:30am May 1, 2012 9:30am
Bulls are coming...

Inserted Video


Inserted Video



(double today!)
  • #6,389
  • May 1, 2012 11:17am May 1, 2012 11:17am
Taking off...hope it don't run out of fuel again.
  • #6,390
  • May 1, 2012 11:19am May 1, 2012 11:19am
Looks like a joke, but this pair is very oversold.
It will probably reach 1.2035 soon, from there can fall again or jump to 1.2150 (and there once again can find resistance or boost to 1.25 and more).
What we can do, hold the line, and wait
  • #6,391
  • May 1, 2012 12:33pm May 1, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting tunera
Looks like a joke, but this pair is very oversold.
It will probably reach 1.2035 soon, from there can fall again or jump to 1.2150 (and there once again can find resistance or boost to 1.25 and more).
What we can do, hold the line, and wait
SNB isn't always on time, oh oh oh
  • #6,392
  • May 1, 2012 1:10pm May 1, 2012 1:10pm
When I read that the first time I was really confused:

SNB has reduced it's Euro position by 17 billions in Q1/2012!

What can that mean?

The reason for that is from my side the following:

SNB saw that the EUR/CHF market was only driven in the past about peg rising rumours. There was no real reaction on other market infos.

They wanted to see the market testing the 1.20 level.

The market realised that SNB will stand to their words and buy at 1.20 unlimited EUR against CHF.

So everybody sees that the SNB is reliable and fight the peg not only with words.

And thats the the requirement for rising the peg without having heavy tests of the higher peg the whole time.

Maybe the whole testing of the peg was driven by SNB.

What do the others in the Thread think is the reason for selling 17 billions from SNB side in Q1 with ana average price around 1.2050?
  • #6,393
  • May 1, 2012 1:34pm May 1, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
True... Lot of traders don't have money to trade.. as they put all in one trade...
Correct me if I am wrong
You are probably right, but those won't last here for too long anyway.

On Friday night in the last second of trading my broker's spread exploded and the Ask price plummeted way beyond most of my stops. I thought that was it. Even if on Monday it got worse from there, I still would have lost no more than 10% of my funds. That hurts a lot, but doesn't kill you.

What I am saying is: there are no exceptions in the market, always use money management.
  • #6,394
  • May 1, 2012 1:35pm May 1, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting Kfp
Maybe the whole testing of the peg was driven by SNB.
sorry but its crazy! the most important thing that have to understand that is snb is not a trader, or a player in the roulette room. snb is the national bank of swiss and because of this its function is to responsible for the country's economy. this way, it can not encourages traders to sell by breach its own peg.
  • #6,395
  • May 1, 2012 1:37pm May 1, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting worsttrader
sorry but its crazy! the most important thing that have to understand that is snb is not a trader, or a player in the roulette room. snb is the national bank of swiss and because of this its function is to responsible for the country's economy. this way, it can not encourages traders to sell by breach its own peg.
But i think he's right, the snb maybe is the responsable for this slow boring landing to the peg, after all they bought big eurs in the last years, especially when it was below the floor. Now what they maybe are doing is just sell them back, slowly, to not encourage further sellings.
But ok it's a good thing as now they have less eurs, and they can buy back if they want.

And yeah they are not a trader but they are still a public company that after all aim to make profit and share with their shareholders, they invest in gold, in bonds, in the currency market, they are a national bank but they're also in the market to make profit.
  • #6,396
  • May 1, 2012 1:40pm May 1, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting tunera
But i think he's right, the snb maybe is the responsable for this slow boring landing to the peg, after all they bought big eurs in the last years, especially when it was below the floor. Now what they maybe are doing is just sell them back, slowly, to not encourage further sellings.
But ok it's a good thing as now they have less eurs, and they can buy back if they want.
yeah, maybe u r right at this point but i still can not imagine that they breached the peg. thats too much

ps. the only thing i can accept this all happened accidentally. they sold too much euros at the same time and traders 'helped' the price below 1,2. yeah, its a conceivable scenario, but if this is right, it has happened accidentally.
  • #6,397
  • May 1, 2012 1:43pm May 1, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting tunera
But i think he's right, the snb maybe is the responsable for this slow boring landing to the peg, after all they bought big eurs in the last years, especially when it was below the floor. Now what they maybe are doing is just sell them back, slowly, to not encourage further sellings.
But ok it's a good thing as now they have less eurs, and they can buy back if they want.

And yeah they are not a trader but they are still a public company that after all aim to make profit and share with their shareholders, they invest in gold, in bonds, in the currency...
Yep, this seems reasonable. They are emptying their vaults with the € sign on them so that they can fill them right back in when they have to play defense again.
  • #6,398
  • May 1, 2012 2:32pm May 1, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting worsttrader
yeah, maybe u r right at this point but i still can not imagine that they breached the peg. thats too much

ps. the only thing i can accept this all happened accidentally. they sold too much euros at the same time and traders 'helped' the price below 1,2. yeah, its a conceivable scenario, but if this is right, it has happened accidentally.
in the opinion of snb there was never a breach.
the best bid in the market was always 1.20
  • #6,399
  • May 1, 2012 2:47pm May 1, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting Kfp
in the opinion of snb there was never a breach.
the best bid in the market was always 1.20
as i remember they recognized it was and called it a technical failure.
  • #6,400
  • May 1, 2012 3:47pm May 1, 2012 3:47pm
Read here, what happened that day:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...ket-structure/
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