Circular Trendlines

Kambooj,

One big question for me. How do you determine where your time lines are at. Is it just major spikes or what? I can't seem to follow you on that.

Thanks

I also agree too,

But

A chart is the psychological pattern of the masses of people who trade that market.

Because of that certain elements of its movement can, and most of the times follow some kind of a natural law.

People like Gann and Bradley Cowan http://www.cycle-trader.com/index.html
have used different version of harmonic tradings, trendlines, and natural cycles to try to get a grasp of the market and forecast some moves.

Banks decide where prices will go months before it goes there.

Its just a matter of how THEY can fool the masses to go one way, while they pull surprises to go the other way in the direction that they want within the time frame that they choose.

Market will go to certain technical levels, and they know that, because they also want to make people believe that its all technical, because if everybody believes that to some extent or the other, then its easier to pull tricks and surprises for them to make money.

But as a trader, you are aware of this fact, and you cant do a lot about it, so the best one can do is to grab a set of tools to analyze the market and get good at it within the limitation of the tool.

Price will do whatever it wants to do, so the only thing you can do is to see when its safe to use your set of tools and when its not, and what are your goals in the amount of money you want to make, and how realistic are those goals.

I use elliot wave counts, but my counts are sometimes not very accurate.

If the timelines that I choose within the elliot wave counts give me about 80% the same message, then I go with that,

If they dont give me the same message, then I try to divide everything in groups of 3's and then draw timelines based on that.

When wave patterns become complicated, I take only the significant highs or the significant lows and work with that.

If there are places that I have doubt about significant highs or lows, I use the higher time frames to remove the noise, and then use those points on smaller time frames to do my analysis

Our first time slot before anything changes is 11:30 AM, second time slot is 12:25 PM. Because of the little gap that is in between these 2 time slots, I would probably conclude that the best move of the day will happen during those time slot. Since the tighter the gap between time there is, the faster will be the speed of price action.

From now until 11:30 AM probably it will be ranging between the blue and red line. Looking for sell opportunities around the blue line and the upper black straight trendline.

Here is the trade that I am looking forward to...

Getting close to the 11:30 time span, its a good time now to start checking your favorite indicator for signs of overbought/oversold. Here is a view on the RSI. Looking for M15 RSI to get close to 66 level for a entry

Right now 3230-3240 seems to be the favorite sell spot until next time slot, which is somewhere in between 12:25-12:40

Updated Chart...

After our time slot between 11:30 and 12:40 has passed with very little action, the next time slot seems to be close to the openning of the Asian session.

Until then expectations are for price action to be rangebound between 3200 and 3240.

From the looks of this thing after trying to get the best fit timeline, we will be ranging again probably within 3160-3260/3270 until May 4th.

The lack of enthusiasm in the market right now is starting to give the same picture too.

I notice that the size of the circles and centre of the circles change with time. How do you determine these?

Here is the view, with possible spike to 3290-3310

At first I put all timelines that I possibly can and manuever different circles on the time lines. Most of the time, no matter which secondary circle you choose, you get the same timeline, at that point I delete the other timelines, and just go with the one which best fits the region where the overlap occurs.

I consider touch points of the secondary circle to the chart.

As time progresses and future moves show themselves, new touchpoints become available. Sometimes those new touchpoints will give a good future timeline, and sometimes you have to trash it and go with the old ones.

I havent yet figured out a formula for doing so.

My best fit time line shows that after we have hit 3280 level, which was pretty close to 3290, whatever direction we continue, we will continue till 3:00 PM today.

From the hard bounce off 3280, probabilities of a down trend is increasing.

interesting thread

There exists the potential for a strong push in either direction soon.

3040 - 3030 should have big bounce

Here is a warning for short positions at around 3150-60 level

The pole break of the blue circle should be taken seriously at this stage.

bro. what your target for shorts ? my 3050