EUR/CHF

The inflation in negative in switzerland, and its the only reason to rise up the peg.

surely not. just take a look at the bollinger bands.
it will break out this week or next week.

http://i47.tinypic.com/20poqqr.jpg

Now there is not inflation, but in the future there will be inflation because they are printing too much swiss francs. Then, eurchf will fall below 1,20

negative inflation: deflation
inflation: chf weaking
eurchf fall below 1,2: euro weakens, chf strengthens

think again

I dont believe in tecnical analysis in this situation, because this pair is very manipulated. I would like to see 1,30 but it's very dificult

it only depends on how big the breakout will be. if big enough, it can build up itself by retails and other traders, without snb intervention.

How long can SNB hold 1.2 mark.... just a matter of time before it breaks...

i really love ur kind of trader
comes here and declares sthing without source, without arguments.
wishful thinking, if u know what i mean

Maybe he's one of the seller/shorty...

this is the closest you come to a fixed exchange rate on a free floating fiat market.

And your point are?

its not we lost the battle , just we will have a very long battle its turn out to be the matter of patiance now. I sell gbp/jpy eur/jpy, thinking that since the e/c goes near the floor , jpy would be the only safe heaven standing ,we will see jpy rise a lot this week.

After being a EURCHF bear, SwiftTick is changing its stance and looking for a higher EURCHF in the next three months. Why we are reversing our view:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been busy over the last few days issuing releases and forecasts. First was last Friday’s speech from new Chairman Thomas Jordan. As expected, Forex traders were gleaming for any nuggets of hints towards what the SNB will do with its 1.2000 EURCHF price floor. Jordan withheld from giving any specific comments but did say that the Swiss franc remains overvalued (ie - we want the EURCHF much higher). However, he was then quick to say that the Swiss economy has been adjusting to the high Swiss franc value. Overall, the SNB is expecting modest economic growth for 2012.

A snapshot of some of the important comments:

"What does this international environment mean for the Swiss economy? The year 2012 is likely to be another difficult one. At CHF 1.20 against the euro, the Swiss currency is still overvalued and presents major challenges to our economy. Many companies have been forced to reduce their prices, which has lowered their turnover in nominal terms. Companies exposed to international competition, with considerable depth of production in Switzerland, in particular, are facing pressure on their profit margins....

However, there are reasons for a certain degree of confidence as far as our economy is concerned. For instance, the low level of interest rates is still having a stimulating effect on the economy......" Read the entire speech

Overall, Jordan’s speech was aimed at justifying the SNB’s monetary actions and price floor. For Forex traders though, the big takeaway was that the SNB was watching two events closely, inflation and the global economy. This being said, the SNB appears to be set to protect their 1.2000 price floor indefinitely as long as inflation is steady. Also, by putting emphasis on the global economy, Jordan seemed to be hinting that the SNB will be raising the EURCHF price floor unless the EU’s financial crisis suddenly takes a turn for the better (doesn’t seem likely now).

The next event was today’s release of the the Swiss National Bank’s Interim First Quarter Results (read the whole release). The SNB stated that is lost 1.7 billion CHF on its holdings in the first quarter, primarily due to losses in its foreign exchange portfolio. Obviously the release was a financial statement, so it lacked much in forecasts or comments. Nonetheless, the report seemed to indicate that the SNB wasn’t worried at all about the balance sheet losses as they were part and parcel of their monetary policy efforts.

Back to the EURCHF

Our theory for a lower EURCHF was based on the fact that although the SNB stated that it will use unlimited funds to defend the 1.2000 price floor, in actuality, it is fighting a massive stream of funds into the Swiss franc. As such, the combination of such a high price to defend the 1.2000 price floor, along with slow but steady improvements in the Swiss economy seemed to offer the SNB an opportunity to back off on its bids.

Nonetheless, with the EU’s financial crisis hitting Spain, along with little if any growth from Japan, and a cloudier picture from the US, we believe that the SNB will feel compelled to act sooner than later, to alleviate a potential Swiss economic slowdown.

As such, we would be buyers at the current 1.2000 levels with a target of 1.2300 in the EURCHF

I love this pair, ok the upmove attempt of today did fail, but it just added other benzine to the fire, it is burning and will burn everything soon.
I remain looking the 2035 level and the 2150 level just next, it may come at any time, the bears are almost defeated.

For tense traders: how we can close EURCHF positions.

How to close open position (High leverage) 1.2050-1.2060 price

1) if you have more money to put open similar position 1.2010-11 and close 1.2020 weekly
You have to do 3 times to book profit and than book losses on existing position so you will be equal
I think it could take 3 weeks to do.
If you are lucky, you may able to average out at 1.2030 at one shot and close all the positions

Still want to trade this pair after closing , you can open at new levels.....

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6XdzrqO5aH...ady-to-run.jpg

We need Hildebrand back to fire the starter's gun!

"5.2 Entry into force
These regulations shall enter into force on 1 May 2012. "

Ok... from today, the new snb regulations are in force.
Now Jordan can show his real power, without the fear of further scandals or weird implications.

http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/4447.html

Interesting article, point out the fact that the current eur reserves of the snb are at lowest level since 2008, this mean that in this months snb was probably one of the major seller in eurchf.
Food for thought

recognize the sellers in the following video (correct answer: 2 points)