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EUR/CHF

  • #6,321
  • Apr 30, 2012 1:40am Apr 30, 2012 1:40am
Quoting fullc
you wrote in your old post "because of the peg"

never mind..
As they write:
"In the first quarter of the year, the Swiss franc appreciated against
the major investment currencies, with the Japanese yen depreciating by 9.6%, the US
dollar by 3.8% (to CHF 0.9020 Swiss francs to the dollar) and the euro by 1.1% (to 1.2043
francs to the euro)."
This mean that they have made such losses mainly by supporting usdchf eurchf and chfjpy.

Now, their investments in terms of % allocation:
USD (usdchf): 28%
EUR (eurchf): 51%
JPY (chfjpy): 9%

The eurchf depreciated just 1.1% but their exposure cover more than half of their whole foreign currency asset, the usdchf depreciated 3.8% (but only 28% of funds here) and the jpy well another loss there too.
The biggest losses comes from supporting eurchf and usdchf, to me this mean that it is highly correlated with their minimum exchange rate monetary policy. Of course not 100% of their losses comes just from keeping eurchf above 1.20, but surely a big part of them.
Make sense?
  • #6,322
  • Apr 30, 2012 1:41am Apr 30, 2012 1:41am
Quoting tunera
http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/Nachrich...rss=wirtschaft

SNB has lost CHF 1.7B in the first quarter of this year. Not a good news IMO
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/ma...2012/04/30/07/
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #6,323
  • Apr 30, 2012 1:51am Apr 30, 2012 1:51am
Quoting cipid2012
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/ma...2012/04/30/07/
This can be a good thing and a bad one too, on one side the market know that the snb floor defense is bringing losses and in the long-term the snb can't win.
On the other side, the snb know that to reverse the situation all they have to do is attack (raise the floor) like they did last year, and they did made huge profit from such operation (they made 13.5B profit last year).

Interesting interesting, the situation is getting slowly more and more hot
  • #6,324
  • Apr 30, 2012 1:59am Apr 30, 2012 1:59am
Quoting tunera
This can be a good thing and a bad one too, on one side the market know that the snb floor defense is bringing losses and in the long-term the snb can't win.
On the other side, the snb know that to reverse the situation all they have to do is attack (raise the floor) like they did last year, and they did made huge profit from such operation (they made 13.5B profit last year).

Interesting interesting, the situation is getting slowly more and more hot
lol.. hot for you or for SNB
  • #6,325
  • Apr 30, 2012 2:03am Apr 30, 2012 2:03am
Quoting tunera
This can be a good thing and a bad one too, on one side the market know that the snb floor defense is bringing losses and in the long-term the snb can't win.
On the other side, the snb know that to reverse the situation all they have to do is attack (raise the floor) like they did last year, and they did made huge profit from such operation (they made 13.5B profit last year).

Interesting interesting, the situation is getting slowly more and more hot
If they put 1.25 they get more profit? why they don't do it? or they wait it come to 1.1 and they put 1.20 like Hildebrand do it and they get more profit than first one?
  • #6,326
  • Apr 30, 2012 2:08am Apr 30, 2012 2:08am
Quoting sonmeman
If they put 1.25 they get more profit? why they don't do it? or they wait it come to 1.1 and they put 1.20 like Hildebrand do it and they get more profit than first one?
Who knows why they do what they do, but if they are smart and plan to raise the floor again (IF they are even planning it), it would make sense to accumulate the more positions as possible as low as possible (like very near the floor), and then sell them back after the floor has been raised.
It's called accumulation-distribution, to make big profit you first have to buy as much as you can as low as you can, and only after that, you can attack the ask, and bring up the price. This happen on every currency pair on every market, market makers do this games.
I think in eurchf the snb can be considered a market maker, they surely know what they do, the 1Q loss is nothing definitive in my opinion, the year has just begun.
  • #6,327
  • Apr 30, 2012 2:11am Apr 30, 2012 2:11am
Quoting tunera
This can be a good thing and a bad one too, on one side the market know that the snb floor defense is bringing losses and in the long-term the snb can't win.
On the other side, the snb know that to reverse the situation all they have to do is attack (raise the floor) like they did last year, and they did made huge profit from such operation (they made 13.5B profit last year).

Interesting interesting, the situation is getting slowly more and more hot
I don't know if they are so much worried cause in 2010 they had a record loss of 19.2 bln CHF and now this 2.6 bln CHF loss is far away from that. They can turn on profit on the next quarters.
Attached Image
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #6,328
  • Apr 30, 2012 2:23am Apr 30, 2012 2:23am
Quoting tunera
Who knows why they do what they do, but if they are smart and plan to raise the floor again (IF they are even planning it), it would make sense to accumulate the more positions as possible as low as possible (like very near the floor), and then sell them back after the floor has been raised.
It's called accumulation-distribution, to make big profit you first have to buy as much as you can as low as you can, and only after that, you can attack the ask, and bring up the price. This happen on every currency pair on every market, market makers do this...
Normally like that. But SNB is very super smart until i don't understand or Jordan can compete with Hildebrand
Last year, Hildebrand puts 1.1 to 1.2, he is famous
This year, Jordan puts 1.1 to 1.25, he is more famous than Hildebrand
  • #6,329
  • Apr 30, 2012 2:45am Apr 30, 2012 2:45am
Quoting sonmeman
Normally like that. But SNB is very super smart until i don't understand or Jordan can compete with Hildebrand
Last year, Hildebrand puts 1.1 to 1.2, he is famous
This year, Jordan puts 1.1 to 1.25, he is more famous than Hildebrand
i dont think he aspires popularity. and dont forget, this is not a personal decision, but a team-work, what serves the interests of the country not the forex traders.
  • #6,330
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:44am Apr 30, 2012 4:44am
should i exit now or wait for 1,2018 at breakeven?
now 1,2015
3 pips is marathon for this pair
There shall be no QE3
  • #6,331
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:49am Apr 30, 2012 4:49am
breakout?

http://i48.tinypic.com/34ys3nt.jpg
  • #6,332
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:51am Apr 30, 2012 4:51am
Quoting worsttrader
breakout?

http://i48.tinypic.com/34ys3nt.jpg


Hope so its a strong break...there are strong resistance to break.
  • #6,333
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:52am Apr 30, 2012 4:52am
go go go

Inserted Video
  • #6,334
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:54am Apr 30, 2012 4:54am
Quoting Helloguys
should i exit now or wait for 1,2018 at breakeven?
now 1,2015
3 pips is marathon for this pair
on my 4h chart:

fibo 61,8: 1.2015
pivot R1: 1.2017
pivot MR2: 1.2019
fibo 100: 1.2019

if i were u, i would wait...but its ur decision.
  • #6,335
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:56am Apr 30, 2012 4:56am
Quoting worsttrader
on my 4h chart:

fibo 61,8: 1.2015
pivot R1: 1.2017
pivot MR2: 1.2019
fibo 100: 1.2019

if i were u, i would wait...but its ur decision.
On my chart relatively:
2018
2022
2035
2150
2460
  • #6,336
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:58am Apr 30, 2012 4:58am
Quoting tunera
On my chart relatively:
2018
2022
2035
2150
2460
okay, forgot mine, i prefer yours
  • #6,337
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:00am Apr 30, 2012 5:00am
Is SNB buying now?
  • #6,338
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:01am Apr 30, 2012 5:01am
Quoting multi888
Is SNB buying now?
nobody knows, but 2018 is taken out, 2022 next station
  • #6,339
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:02am Apr 30, 2012 5:02am
Woohoo! I think we just witnessed intervention... SNB style!

Attached Image
  • #6,340
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:02am Apr 30, 2012 5:02am
oh my god please 1 pip left to go
There shall be no QE3
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