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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #310,361
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:12am Apr 28, 2012 12:12am
It ain't what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain't so. -- Mark Twain*


*quoted from a friend's signature
  • #310,362
  • Edited 1:27am Apr 28, 2012 12:29am | Edited 1:27am
Morning , 6244 next limit & bo level . hold to further up or not next limit level 6170 as before , confirmation then 6226 + 6206 breaks .so to see next open .

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #310,363
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:09am Apr 28, 2012 1:09am
Quoting dobbie11
Why is it insane BB? It was insane that the pound went up to 2.0000 was that insane and the major move came the day after Thanksgiving. Go back and take a look. The only thing that may be insane is to try and fight the move. Remember 90% of all news and fundies are already priced in. Then the news is release and we have a knee jerk reaction and then it goes right back to the technical move. There nothing different about this move , other then everyone is trying to pic a top and guess what, they are getting it wrong. So they get upset cuz they are...
hello
yes sorry by saying "insane" i mean that the push up have been strong! really strong. is just my habit to say "insane" when there is such a strong push, both if up or down.
About the S&R thing, i agree 1000%!!
In fact there is tons of papers wrote about S&R to be respected, while the best view in market is to read what S&R level will be broken, according to main picture.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,364
  • Apr 28, 2012 3:34am Apr 28, 2012 3:34am
Quoting gsantri
Sentiment has crossed
.
sorry to ask but where you found those very usefull sentiments data?

i am comfused now because dailyfx SSI has different data to their yesterday sentiment chart
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There shall be no QE3
  • #310,365
  • Apr 28, 2012 3:57am Apr 28, 2012 3:57am
Quoting Helloguys
sorry to ask but where you found those very usefull sentiments data?

i am comfused now because dailyfx SSI has different data to their yesterday sentiment chart
Those charts can be found here: http://www.timingcharts.com/charts

Very useful to know how traders are positioned.
  • #310,366
  • Apr 28, 2012 4:12am Apr 28, 2012 4:12am
Quoting zpiders
Those charts can be found here: http://www.timingcharts.com/charts

Very useful to know how traders are positioned.
Thank you very much!

this is great!
There shall be no QE3
  • #310,367
  • Apr 28, 2012 4:27am Apr 28, 2012 4:27am
...as stated by some, and understood by many, the Lady can confuse longer than you can rationalize.

I would also like to point out that even if history suggests that such consecutive rises on daily prints ultimately reverse, it is not a given that your expectations based on historical data will be realized. In addition to this, money flows are now more skewed than ever, with CBs fighting to obtain stability/better value, and thus leading to ever-more complicated patterns.

As is often seen, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and one should just follow the trend, and not inclination. Of course, it helps to have either deep pockets, or cut to smaller lots and bigger stops, as the trends are becoming less comprehendible. Alternatively, look for an alternative instrument, as Cable really can be an account killer.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #310,368
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:02am Apr 28, 2012 7:02am
if you are not confident with a signal dont trade it.timing is important. with elliots you will never achive better tha 54% success rate no matter what platform you use its uselless. its the banks who move the markets. their heads up and down down and up all the time. its the best pattern repeates 94% of the time.open eyes and follow it correct entries and you dont need stops bigger than 5-10 pips. its very simple after 10 years...
  • #310,369
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:50am Apr 28, 2012 7:50am
http://i.imgur.com/2Uw28.png

There's a sell order flow from 29 months ago, marked by arrow. This is four or more candles closing below their 50% levels for each candle (black box highlights these candles), which dictates sentiment.

Draw a blue box around this start candle - price has come back to test this break out zone....again.

Suspicious about GBPUSD because of a UK double dip as GDP figures fall for second quarter in a row, yet the third bounce from bottom trend line was strong as it didn't even touch it, i.e. conflict between fundamental bearish news and technical bullish strength.

GBPJPY also confirms strong pound as the weekly has a nice roll-over engulfing bearish candle, but price kept trickling back up into resistance, so may have more bullish bid-up on pound as every man and his dog tries to sell.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #310,370
  • Apr 28, 2012 8:19am Apr 28, 2012 8:19am
The truth is this the big money is burning stops true and what is nice about seeing this is that all those economic reports what do they mean NOTHING why because if the big money is long its going up period. Now conversely they will have to take profits This is where you refer to the technical and after they have pushed it up and hedged out their longs with shorts the fun begins as they are doing now building short positions. If you are a bigger player you can build your positions for your TECHNICAL point of interest I have. But do you see that what matters in trading now is the guys who run it not reports as all the negative reports what do they add up to nothing, well nothing until they unwind all their sell positions lol and change the deviation back to the downside then all the great economic reports will mean nothing and the game will start all over again. "EVERYTHING IS BEING CONTROLLED GET A CLUE lol"
  • #310,371
  • Apr 28, 2012 8:22am Apr 28, 2012 8:22am
Quoting Fxbandito
The truth is this the big money is burning stops true and what is nice about seeing this is that all those economic reports what do they mean NOTHING why because if the big money is long its going up period. Now conversely they will have to take profits This is where you refer to the technical and after they have pushed it up and hedged out their longs with shorts the fun begins as they are doing now building short positions. If you are a bigger player you can build your positions for your TECHNICAL point of interest I have. But do you...
its not about getting a clue its about making a decision, they are not bad traders just traders on the wrong side..any1 can do this

they will always be clues question is which ones to take notice off
  • #310,372
  • Apr 28, 2012 9:01am Apr 28, 2012 9:01am
I am looking at resistance at 1.63 and 1.645...
  • #310,373
  • Apr 28, 2012 9:05am Apr 28, 2012 9:05am
LoL I love FOREX so predictable notes everybody switching to BULL very nice.
  • #310,374
  • Apr 28, 2012 9:15am Apr 28, 2012 9:15am
Quoting Fxbandito
The truth is this the big money is burning stops true and what is nice about seeing this is that all those economic reports what do they mean NOTHING why because if the big money is long its going up period. Now conversely they will have to take profits This is where you refer to the technical and after they have pushed it up and hedged out their longs with shorts the fun begins as they are doing now building short positions. If you are a bigger player you can build your positions for your TECHNICAL point of interest I have. But do you...
Stop loss hunting might be a part of this "game". Market is looking for a reason and then eat alive the wrong side. Doctor Bernake spoke and said BS and market reacting like US are going to a QE3.
There is no QE3, but market speculate on that, want to pretend that US goverment will give free money without any reason, and stock markets are making highs, based on a false promisse.

So better to stay in TA, that not much BS is there.
Funtamentals are working better for the long tern and real money traders.

Shorting at 16345 is my plan. Target is 16185. SL is 16410.
Many chances this trade to be profitfull. And good R/R.
this trade is canceled if g/u returns lower to 16185 without hit my entry point.
There shall be no QE3
  • #310,375
  • Apr 28, 2012 10:23am Apr 28, 2012 10:23am
i see much misunderstanding about stop hunting here.. a stop hunt appears when a former major swing high or low is taken out cause that's the usual place not only retail traders put their stops....but in cable the last major swing high was 1.606....what we see since then it just a pure simple trend..nothing else
  • #310,376
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:41am Apr 28, 2012 11:41am
Quoting Fxbandito
LoL I love FOREX so predictable notes everybody switching to BULL very nice.
not a good sign for forex factory http://www.pic4ever.com/images/188.gif
  • #310,377
  • Apr 28, 2012 2:35pm Apr 28, 2012 2:35pm
resistances and supports what a stressfull things to consider really and all the paint over the charts is it really possible to belive them? I doubt that John in RBS is watching these. he knows that he is capable of chasing stops and thats all, he will wait more time than you fellow retail trader so thats it. he sees what you cant. so timing is the name of the game
  • #310,378
  • Apr 28, 2012 4:06pm Apr 28, 2012 4:06pm
@TravoltaImp

Quote
I was teached a method where I have been able to explain myself in detail every move on the chart and to succesfully react and counter react almost every move.Works only on GBPUSD because i recived the information from a long time friend which was working for one of the biggest UK investment bank.

Can you elaborate?
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #310,379
  • Apr 28, 2012 4:08pm Apr 28, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting torkay77
i see much misunderstanding about stop hunting here.. a stop hunt appears when a former major swing high or low is taken out cause that's the usual place not only retail traders put their stops....but in cable the last major swing high was 1.606....what we see since then it just a pure simple trend..nothing else
i agree.
just a clarify
stop hunt
IMO....
means simply one thing:

market sometimes need liquidity. so when happens price is in a range, it is attracted like iron to a magnet to those levels where there is higher confluence of stop loss and new orders to be filled both they are buy/sell stops or buy/sell limits.
so, the more price range the more range come to print what we call triangles, flags, megaphones, and also must never forget the 'cat' pattern (lol joking ).

but

when there is a trend, there is not 'stop hunt'. and indeed is never a 'stop hunt' because it is not properly like an hunt by its meaning IMO. it is simply that price need to fill liquidity.

all this said

i recognized that when price was touching 1.58 lower leves, was everytime filling iper huge buy orders with strong and fast up moves. then filled sell power near 1.59 1.60 1.59 1.60 with shy slow down moves.

so yes, if there was this kind of "look for liquidity and orders filling" was true until 1.60 or so. thenm only impulsive upward trend!

then yes, was very strong move rarely seen in markets. but this is another fact, not included in 'stop hunts'
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #310,380
  • Apr 28, 2012 4:08pm Apr 28, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting FiatFap
@TravoltaImp



Can you elaborate?
Yes it is in my thread
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